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Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

economist.com

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Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#71

Post by tpm »

bheadmaster wrote: post #37
birracerveza wrote: post #35

I'm surprised I haven't come across conspiracy theories that use this as confirmation that "they" control the weather...

I'll admit it has passed my mind several times. I never said it out loud (until now), but the coincidence that the very year EU loses its main gas supply we get sunny winter without snow at all... I know it's probably a coincidence, but my mind doesn't like coincidences. There's always this "what if" voice inside my head.

We do have a mostly sunny warm autumn, but winter begins in December and runs until March, so let's wait a few months with the verdicts.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#72

Post by marcinzm »

photochemsyn wrote: post #50

One major theme in the ongoing US-Russia conflict over the past decade-plus (dating back to at least 2008) is a fight over who gets to sell oil and gas to Europe. With the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines, and with countries like Qatar refusing to alter long-term energy contracts to increase supplies to Europe, and with Iran still under the Trump-era sanctions (which Biden continued), that mostly leaves the US…

The US (in 2021) used 827 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year and produced 934. The amount it's expected to send to Europe (45 billion cubic meters) amounts to under 5% of its own production which has been increasing every year. Most of that hasn't even been sent yet so the percentage up to now is even smaller.

So yeah this was never about the US selling natural gas to Europe.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#73

Post by empedocles »

m000 wrote: post #62

Gas prices plummeting, energy bills soaring. The market will regulate itself. /s

This is because companies buy long term contracts, which are still priced higher than the spot price on the, IMO reasonable, assumption that gas prices will rise again next year as the war continues (and Russia has more options to escalate e.g. cutting TurkStream).

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#74

Post by aa-jv »

pavlov wrote: post #58
dotancohen wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines ... that mostly leaves > the USA as the primary supplier. Does that suggest motive for the destruction? Who else has both motive and means?

Selling more gas to Europe isn’t a massive windfall to USA. The Biden administration has bigger fish to fry and wouldn’t risk such an intervention in Swedish waters just as Sweden is joining NATO. My money is on Russian hardliner factions operating rogue without Putin’s approval. He can’t admit he doesn’t know who did it. The Russian state security apparatus is so large, we have no idea what kind of internal tensions…

>The Biden administration has bigger fish to fry and wouldn’t risk such an intervention in Swedish waters just as Sweden is joining NATO.

This is a pretty naive perspective - Since when has Sweden ever stood up to the crimes and misdeeds of the USA? Sweden ranks up there with Australia in the "lackey-state underdog to the USA" rankings ..

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#75

Post by thefz »

eecc wrote: post #48
dtech wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you expand on this or provide sources? At least in my countries the gas storage is now-empty gas fields that used to contain natural gas anyway, I have a hard time seeing how that could contaminate water sources.

The mild weather after a scorching summer is turning the continent into a desert. Without an exceptionally wet and cold winter the European water basins will be toast next year. The italian Pianura Padana has seen one of the worst droughts in centuries.

Up in the Italian Alps too. During July/August there has been water rationing for agriculture, and reservoirs for artificial snow during the winter are now empty.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#76

Post by empedocles »

rowanajmarshall wrote: post #59
pydry wrote: post #31

Mild autumn weather [ and not enough storage capacity to take advantage ] has sent European gas prices plummeting. 90% full in the UK means about a week's worth of gas. In Germany it's about 2.5 months.

Although the UK has an appreciable percentage of Europe's LNG re-gasification capacity, while Germany has none, and imports LNG via Belgium and the Netherlands instead. The UK has storage, it's just sitting in ships off the coast.

Unlike oil, LNG boils off while sitting off the coast, so this is not a long term strategy.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#77

Post by empedocles »

7952 wrote: post #68
rowanajmarshall wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although the UK has an appreciable percentage of Europe's LNG re-gasification capacity, while Germany has none, and imports LNG via Belgium and the Netherlands instead. The UK has storage, it's just sitting in ships off the coast.

And the UK has relatively more secure sources in Norway and the North Sea.

Not sure I would bet on the pipeline from Norway remaining secure. They have increased their level of military alert for a reason.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#78

Post by ed_balls »

photochemsyn wrote: post #50

One major theme in the ongoing US-Russia conflict over the past decade-plus (dating back to at least 2008) is a fight over who gets to sell oil and gas to Europe. With the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines, and with countries like Qatar refusing to alter long-term energy contracts to increase supplies to Europe, and with Iran still under the Trump-era sanctions (which Biden continued), that mostly leaves the US…

"With the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines"

They are not destroyed. There are 4 pipes in total and 1 pipe of NS2 is intact. Most likely Russia destroyed the other pipes to get NS2 working (you want gas? Need to certify NS2 and we won't pay contract penalties, because this is not our fault)

Resources blackmail didn't work, hence nuclear threats and mobilisation.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#80

Post by simion314 »

pencilguin wrote: post #29

Quoted post unavailable.

I would wait to gloat until winter is over, there is no rulle that if autumn is worm then the winter is the same, we could be hit with a super cold period of winter, add on top some sabotages from the Ruzzians and a lot of suffering might happen. I hope our countries are increasing the security checks on critical infrastructure.
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