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New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

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Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#91

Post by pfdietz »

speedylight wrote: post #89
pfdietz wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nowhere in that rather bombastic report did I see any argument justifying altering any airline flight due to the reentry.

It may not say it directly but the implication is clear, in that uncontrolled re-entry is dangerous to anything that might cross its path, including people, infrastructure, planes, and pigeons if they’re really unlucky.

That's not a sufficient argument. Something can be dangerous without being sufficiently dangerous to warrant any personal action. In this case, I believe if you calculate you will find the chance of an aircraft being damaged was so extremely slight that it wasn't worth delaying any flight.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#92

Post by mlyle »

mcculley wrote: post #79
supertrope wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two thirds of the planet is water. Most land is uninhabited. Population and property is concentrated in cities. The chance of debris hitting you is less than a lightning strike.

There is a difference between the chance of debris hitting a person and the chance of it hitting any person. Regardless of the probability, there is a problem with choosing that risk for someone else without their consent.

> Regardless of the probability, there is a problem with choosing that risk for someone else without their consent.

Every action we take imposes risks on other people.

Economic models are one of our best tools to use in weighing these risks against each other and the costs of mitigating them.

(OTOH: China's cost to mitigate most of these risks would be, generally, pretty small... It's a cost of being in the space game, IMO.)

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#93

Post by MichaelZuo »

ch4s3 wrote: post #90
MichaelZuo wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Verge article links to a 'local news site' afriksoir.net that looks really shady, similar to clickbait spam sites. Registered on April 9th, 2019 with GoDaddy according to WHOIS. It's top story today is just commenting on some Ivorian politican's Twitter feed https://afriksoir.net/lobognon-junte-goita-integrite-mali-jo... And it's not linked to any established West African news organization. This took me about 10…

Oh please, numerous scientists and governments tracked the Rocket debris going down over Cotes d’Ivoire. It landed somewhere there for sure. Analysts think the photo is credible. The preponderance of evidence points in a clear direction, we’re not trying to convict someone of murder here. What do you think fell in Cotes d’Ivoire? What level of proof would be sufficient? Why are you so willing to believe the CCO line…

You seemed to have entirely ignored my comment?

The fact is that this shady site was linked as a source, and it's in fact the first external link in a decently long article.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#94

Post by mlyle »

tostonescon wrote: post #84
mrweasel wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As far as I understand it the vast majority of rockets have uncontrolled I don't think that's true anymore. There's a Danish radio program[1] that talked about this and apparently China is the only country/operator that still have uncontrolled reentry rocket stages. Everyone else have committed to controlled reentry. Looking that the possible places where the rocket can hit populated areas. It looks like they went…

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-022-01718-8 >In 2020, over 60% of launches to low Earth orbit resulted in a rocket body being abandoned in orbit >In the USA, the Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSPs) apply to all launches and require that the risk of a casualty from a reentering rocket body is below a 1-in-10,000 threshold4. However, the US Air Force waived the ODMSP requirements for 37 of the…

It's that it's uncontrolled re-entry of a giant first stage. No one does anything like that except China.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#95

Post by FpUser »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #81
FpUser wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"the US did it 50 years ago therefore we can do it today" The US / or other countries for that matter "did it XXX years ago" to advance their goals and get more prosperous at the expense of the others. If you want to punish countries for doing similar things now it is totally ok, as long as you punish the same crimes committed earlier. The crime must be paid for. This of course will never happen so when you are tryi…

If you punish every country retroactively for crimes committed ages ago, every country would cease to exist. There is no country without blood on its hands, historically. This is like saying that you should go to jail because your grandfather jaywalked 80 years ago, which was not a crime back then but is now.

Starting with the people who are still alive would be a good idea. I think you can find plenty of people responsible for modern wars/other crimes against humanity after WWII. The end of WWII also marks the "official" punishment as in Nuremberg trials.

This is not "your grandfather jaywalked" case but pretty rational I think. But you know where it will end up when for example our "leader" the US had declared that it does not recognize ICC, and will take any measures starting with sanctions and including force if it ever gets prosecuted. The other countries take it as an example. Cant blame them for not buying into that do as I say bullshit.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#96

Post by ch4s3 »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #93
ch4s3 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh please, numerous scientists and governments tracked the Rocket debris going down over Cotes d’Ivoire. It landed somewhere there for sure. Analysts think the photo is credible. The preponderance of evidence points in a clear direction, we’re not trying to convict someone of murder here. What do you think fell in Cotes d’Ivoire? What level of proof would be sufficient? Why are you so willing to believe the CCO line…

You seemed to have entirely ignored my comment? The fact is that this shady site was linked as a source, and it's in fact the first external link in a decently long article.

I hardly matters that the local reporting from the village isn't very good. The rocket is KNOWN to have gone down in that part of Cote d'Ivoire which you are willfully ignoring. What is more likely, that part of the rocket did land on the edge of that village in line with it's known ballistic trajectory or that it's fake and a bunch of scientists, governments, and groups watching objects in orbit are all part of a conspiracy?

You're engaged in gish gallop jumping form one unrelated small critique to the next while ignoring that we know the rocket didn't burn up and a hunk of it did land in Cote d'Ivoire. We know China lied about it burning up on reentry.

Why are you ignoring all of that? Why are you carrying water for the CCP on this?

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#97

Post by MichaelZuo »

ch4s3 wrote: post #96
MichaelZuo wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seemed to have entirely ignored my comment? The fact is that this shady site was linked as a source, and it's in fact the first external link in a decently long article.

I hardly matters that the local reporting from the village isn't very good. The rocket is KNOWN to have gone down in that part of Cote d'Ivoire which you are willfully ignoring. What is more likely, that part of the rocket did land on the edge of that village in line with it's known ballistic trajectory or that it's fake and a bunch of scientists, governments, and groups watching objects in orbit are all part of a co…

What? Ignoring my comment and instead writing an incoherent rant twice-in-a-row really is bizarre.

If there isn't a substantive point, or a clarification, to add, then don't reply and save your credibility.

Anyways, I will explain again:

Local reporting is the only potential source of evidence that anything fell on land at all. Not just for this case, but for nearly all debris cases.

Anyone not in the local area wouldn't know if anything actually hit the ground. With audio-visual evidence being a part of it, but those still need solid backing by a credible source, not ambiguous language.

The closest thing to solid evidence here seems to be a photo on Twitter of a long pipe on the ground, but no one credible is willing to stake their reputation and claim it definitely is a rocket component.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#98

Post by [deleted] »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #93
ch4s3 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh please, numerous scientists and governments tracked the Rocket debris going down over Cotes d’Ivoire. It landed somewhere there for sure. Analysts think the photo is credible. The preponderance of evidence points in a clear direction, we’re not trying to convict someone of murder here. What do you think fell in Cotes d’Ivoire? What level of proof would be sufficient? Why are you so willing to believe the CCO line…

You seemed to have entirely ignored my comment? The fact is that this shady site was linked as a source, and it's in fact the first external link in a decently long article.

[deleted]

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#99

Post by ch4s3 »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #97
ch4s3 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hardly matters that the local reporting from the village isn't very good. The rocket is KNOWN to have gone down in that part of Cote d'Ivoire which you are willfully ignoring. What is more likely, that part of the rocket did land on the edge of that village in line with it's known ballistic trajectory or that it's fake and a bunch of scientists, governments, and groups watching objects in orbit are all part of a co…

What? Ignoring my comment and instead writing an incoherent rant twice-in-a-row really is bizarre. If there isn't a substantive point, or a clarification, to add, then don't reply and save your credibility. Anyways, I will explain again: Local reporting is the only potential source of evidence that anything fell on land at all. Not just for this case, but for nearly all debris cases. Anyone not in the local area woul…

To clarify the things you are ignoring:

1. Multiple well known and respected experts like Dr.Marco Langbroek and Jonathan McDowell tracked the rocket heading at a low angle over the Atlantic towards Cote d'Ivoire

2. Multiple governments including the US released statements saying they believe it went down there

3. An infrasound station on the ground there picked up the debris traveling overhead[1].

What more do you really need? It seems clear it must have hit land.

[1] https://twitter.com/SinaZerbo/status/1260323482396774400

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#100

Post by 8bitsrule »

throwaway4good wrote: post #8
Simon_O_Rourke wrote: post #2

This is deeply irresponsible by the CSNA and is a disaster just waiting to happen on the ground. Is it laziness on the part of their flight team or just crass disregard for others safety?

It is a calculated risk; perhaps similar to what have been done by the US and Russia when their space ambitions were at their highest.

For example, some of the US Navy's Transit satellites in the early 1960s were powered by non-containerized SNAP RTG's (plutonium) destroyed when they de-orbited, releasing Pu-238 into the atmosphere.

The Cassini Mission was launched in 1997 with 72+ pounds of Pu aboard. NASA calculated the risks of 'inadvertent reentry' beforehand.

[https://web.archive.org/web/20030505132905/http://www.icsu-s...] [https://www.space4peace.org/articles/morenukesinspace.htm]

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