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As last module docks, China completes its space station

nytimes.com

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Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#381

Post by nonethewiser »

ch4s3 wrote: post #99
nonethewiser wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hopefully they solve more important problems first though.

Isn't this a logical fallacy? Rocket scientists and engineers are going to best suited to getting stuff into orbit, they aren't simply going to be able to go a solve a "more important problem". Other people are already working on those things and are likely specialists.

It's hard to make items that achieve their function and can be transported into space. There are still improvements to be made with functionality and launch-ability. It's more important to focus on those - if you can make something fit a subjective standard of beauty at the same great. Except that's only 1 person's ideal so who cares.

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#382

Post by bayesian_horse »

zmaurelius wrote: post #370
bayesian_horse wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of the countryside is still doing subsistence agriculture, for one thing. "Catching up" means China is growing faster than the west, both in economy and technological know-how. But at present China is only marginally out-growing the West, even using the CCP numbers.

Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. The US does have the advantage in that high performing individuals on the level of Einstein have a higher chance of emerging due to much more personal freedom and social mobility, but that is difficult to ac…

But STEM graduates from China really aren't the same. And they aren't working in the kind of system that would promote progress. Or even select for performance properly. Additionally it's not like every Chinese high school student has the same access to higher education. It does depend on location, wealth and the guanxi of his parents.

Overall the economic growth is clearly faltering. And with a GDP growth rate that is only one or two percentage points ahead of "the West" the catching up is going to take a lot longer. It's quite the same with education, which is just another industry among many. China is running into a glass ceiling because of its system.

Additionally there is an economic world war raging right now, mostly against Russia. But China is increasingly getting on the wrong side of this, with much of the world opposing China.

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#383

Post by bayesian_horse »

LargoLasskhyfv wrote: post #377
bayesian_horse wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you ever heard of the Transrapid? That was a technology that already worked decades ago, but hasn't been put into widespread use for various reasons. China has already overbuilt its highspeed rail system. China really doesn't need another solution for a problem it doesn't have.

Yes I have :-) I'm German and once lived near one proposed track, meant as an upgrade to an already existing, heavily used main track, planned with many stops over short distances. Edit: Maybe they could use this to overbuild their already existing net with a dozen to two dozen strategically located stations, as an overlay of hyperhubs , and use the interconnections to conventional HSR as spokes which branch off of t…

You assume they'd built those connections where they are needed most. That's not how it works in China...

You assume that company is giving an accurate picture of what it has achieved. That's not how it works in China...

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#384

Post by chmod775 »

83 wrote: post #325
adrian_b wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be interesting to see some concrete examples of what is claimed in "Once parity is reached, China cuts collaboration agreements and keeps further advancements within China." Whenever I search recent research articles about any topic, I see a very large number that are published by China, and which are freely available. The quality of the Chinese research is quite uneven, there are many papers that are just g…

> I frequently see statements from naive Americans that all that the Chinese do is based on copying, but unfortunately for USA, that was true only in the past and it is no longer true today. Just because you don't follow them doesn't mean they don't exist. Plenty of ongoing IP theft cases show this is not true. This case closed a few years back that pretty much wiped out a Billion+ dollar US company: https://www.just…

Wind turbines!

This example is immensely funny to me, since in the 90s the NSA stole trade secrets related to wind turbines from the German company Enercon and passed it on to the US company Kenetech, who then managed to get a patent in the US.

English sources are a bit scarce, but here's an article that references it:

> Some months later, a former NSA agent admitted that the organisation had secretly intercepted Enercon's data communications and monitored conference calls. The NSA passed all the information it gleaned on to Kenetech.[1]

There's also a report on ECHELON for the European parliament that mentions this case among others[2]. Some more cases became known through documents leaked by Snowden.

To complete this circle German intelligence services would now have to steal trade secrets related to wind turbines from China, but sadly they're explicitly forbidden from conduction industrial espionage - to the chagrin of German companies who are feeling disadvantaged.

[1] https://www.irishtimes.com/business/electronic-spies-torture...

[2] https://irp.fas.org/program/process/rapport_echelon_en.pdf

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#385

Post by meixg »

m0llusk wrote: post #308
MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #226

Now that could be the only space station, if the ISS gets decommissioned by 2031. https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-missions/internatio...

The current economic implosion in China also brings the future of this station into question. One of Xi's biggest dreams for the future was his vision of the Xiong'An new city which has recently been abandoned after being only partially constructed. Big projects get shelved in hard times.

how much time do you expected to build a entire new city?

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#386

Post by AlchemistCamp »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #286
bayesian_horse wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not a high-tech nation. There is a thin patina of bling-bling but underneath they have big trouble between corruption and nobody else trusting them. China has lots of money (for now...) so they can throw a lot of resources at the problem. In China, quick public successes always take precedence over doing it right.

Your view of China is 10 years behind reality. Corruption was a huge problem, it is still somewhat of a problem, but corruption has reduced significantly and continues to reduce. As for "nobody else trusting them": based on what evidence? Foreign investment into China is at an all-time high. Recent research has shown that while sentiments about China has become much more negative in the west (and its allies such as S…

> sentiment in the rest of the world — accounting for 80% of humanity — has become much more positive.

India is 1/6 of the world's population and its media sentiment towards China has been trending sharply downwards over the past few years.

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#387

Post by bayesian_horse »

__m wrote: post #368
bayesian_horse wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It matters when people think China is a High-Tech powerhouse. Until 2017 they weren't even able to produce ball-pens domestically. They had to institute a five year long program to figure out how to make the small balls that go into the tip of it. Also China is unapolegitically militarizing it's space presence, and that should bother you a lot more than any US ambitions in that regard.

The US literally has a space force and probably the most military satellites in orbit

Yes. And they are a basically a democratic country, usually honor their treaties and are allied with my country. Generally countries who are "friends" with the US fare a lot better than "friends" of Russia or China. I do trust the US way more than China.

Also there is a big difference between recon satellites and hunter-killer satellites.

Russia is threatening to destroy Starlink satellites over support for Ukraine. In my opinion that has voided any treaties or intentions of not weaponizing space in a more direct way. The US (and its allies) now need to figure out how to clean up orbits wrecked by Russia and how to disable Russian satellites without wrecking useful orbits.

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#388

Post by Ekaros »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #387
__m wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US literally has a space force and probably the most military satellites in orbit

Yes. And they are a basically a democratic country, usually honor their treaties and are allied with my country. Generally countries who are "friends" with the US fare a lot better than "friends" of Russia or China. I do trust the US way more than China. Also there is a big difference between recon satellites and hunter-killer satellites. Russia is threatening to destroy Starlink satellites over support for Ukraine.…

If Starlink is used by military it becomes legitimate military target including locations it is launched, controlled and manufactured from.

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#389

Post by IshKebab »

lovich wrote: post #378
IshKebab wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I say "I cleaved a log" there is no chance of you thinking I meant "I cleaved to a log".

And if I say I cleaved the halves together, you’d have no chance of thinking that I meant I cut them apart. It’s English, you need context to tell what definition is being used for any word with multiple definitions

> I cleaved the halves together

I would say what are you talking about? That makes no grammatical sense.

Re: As last module docks, China completes its space station

#390

Post by FooBarWidget »

AlchemistCamp wrote: post #386
FooBarWidget wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your view of China is 10 years behind reality. Corruption was a huge problem, it is still somewhat of a problem, but corruption has reduced significantly and continues to reduce. As for "nobody else trusting them": based on what evidence? Foreign investment into China is at an all-time high. Recent research has shown that while sentiments about China has become much more negative in the west (and its allies such as S…

> sentiment in the rest of the world — accounting for 80% of humanity — has become much more positive. India is 1/6 of the world's population and its media sentiment towards China has been trending sharply downwards over the past few years.

You can read the Cambridge University research yourself: https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/a-world-...

Check out figure 15 for South Asia's sentiment on China.

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