you don't need statistical evidence...it's obvious fraud when the vote %s for each party add up at 146%
I don't see how that is possible. Aren't election results released as number of votes per party, instead of percentage of votes?
Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
51–59 of 59 posts
Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
#52Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
#53For some interesting mathematical techniques that can be brought to bear on this issue, check out Benford's Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law If you have access to the Raw Voting numbers by district/region etc, this technique could make for some interesting analysis.
It's not obvious to me how this applies. Wouldn't most fraudulent vote counts also satisfy Benford's Law?
Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
#54100% turnout in chechnya, 99.87% for the ruling party of one russia.... and you need statistical evidence to detect fraud!?
You just presented statistical evidence.
I think the point is that there's a difference between 'obvious statistical evidence' and 'non-obvious statistical evidence.' Often the results of statistics can be counterintuitive due to issues like sample size, confidence intervals, etc.
Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
#55For some interesting mathematical techniques that can be brought to bear on this issue, check out Benford's Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law If you have access to the Raw Voting numbers by district/region etc, this technique could make for some interesting analysis.
It's not obvious to me how this applies. Wouldn't most fraudulent vote counts also satisfy Benford's Law?
I would have thought not, but this paper argues that Benford's law is not useful for detecting voter fraud: http://www.vote.caltech.edu/drupal/node/327
Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
according to that graph in the article http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9wJyYHagRbo/TuMibuRO59I/AAAAAAAAAM... the same frame-up was attempted in 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, etc... It is a nice double pay scheme that is completely in the nature of the current Russian regime - to get and stay in power through election fraud and blame the fraud on the opposition at the same time.
It's not being blamed on the opposition from what I can tell, but rather quite squarely on the US that is meddling with Russia's internal affairs.
Then it appears the US meddling is quite extensive!
Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
#57I've made this chart to visualize voting in Moscow. Every person who voted (or "voted" gets one pixel on the screen, grouped in circled depicting their voting place. Pixels are color-coded, each party has its own color, United Russia is black. https://github.com/alamar/elegraph/blob/master/moscow.png The X axis is turnover, bigger to the right. Starts at ~25%, ends at 100% The Y axis is % of votes given to United Rus…
> The X axis is turnover
turnout?
Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
#58I've made this chart to visualize voting in Moscow. Every person who voted (or "voted" gets one pixel on the screen, grouped in circled depicting their voting place. Pixels are color-coded, each party has its own color, United Russia is black. https://github.com/alamar/elegraph/blob/master/moscow.png The X axis is turnover, bigger to the right. Starts at ~25%, ends at 100% The Y axis is % of votes given to United Rus…
> The X axis is turnover turnout?
Perhaps so.
Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
... because they were issued with voting papers already filled in. Check out the Al Jazeera reports on the election fraud.
No, that's ballot stuffing. The grandparent seemed to mean that real people who work in the government actually voted for UR, either of genuine conviction or under duress from their superiors. It would be very hard to give out filled-in paper at the voting station in full view of the monitors. The people who received filled-in ballots were hired to go round and stuff the ballot boxes at multiple locations.
Perhaps I phrased it wrong. People in the army were apparently issued with their ballot papers already filled in. This is clearly a case of "under duress from their superiors" to vote for a particular party. I can't a Russian soldier asking for a clean ballot and voting for someone else.