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100% turnout in chechnya, 99.87% for the ruling party of one russia.... and you need statistical evidence to detect fraud!?
100% turnout in chechnya, 99.87% for the ruling party of one russia.... and you need statistical evidence to detect fraud!?
all republics dominated by muslim minorities voted for the ruling party with rates above 95%; check caucasian republics, tatarstan, bashkir..apparently minnorities in russia love the ruling party more than russians themselves.
Every person who voted (or "voted" gets one pixel on the screen, grouped in circled depicting their voting place. Pixels are color-coded, each party has its own color, United Russia is black.
https://github.com/alamar/elegraph/blob/master/moscow.png
The X axis is turnover, bigger to the right. Starts at ~25%, ends at 100% The Y axis is % of votes given to United Russia, bigger towards bottom. starts at ~20%, ends at 100%
You can see there's something crazy going on, there is more than one center with wildly different voting behavior plus at some places some parties got no votes at all, plus towards the bottom a few places where all the votes went to United Russia.
One chart shows that there is no normal distribution for votes given to United Russia (UR) The other chart shows that percent of people who voted for UR grows when the number of people that voted grows
Let's think, which facts have influenced the results of voting:
А) External factors:
1) Votes falsification
B) Personal factors:
2) Authorithy of elder person, commander or tribe leaders 3) Mass-media
4) Standards of living
5) Rational thinking - when someone takes a pen and a sheet of paper and writes down proc and cos of voting for one or another party.
The regions where UN had the biggest number of votes where:
- rregions with large number of milinary men
- regions located on Caucasus (where family and tribe traditions are very strong).
There were no need to falsify election results in the Russian Army - it has very strong pro-UR propaganda inside and have almost no information sources other than TV which is also pro-UR
As for the Caucasus,
1) There are very strong tribe traditions there
— one for everyone and everyone for one.
— people tend tol vote as they are told by the elders
2) Opposition media sources (Kommersant FM, Musiness FM, etc which describe UR in negative way, are not widespread in Chechen Republic. Certanly, somene can use the Internet, but this is very small number of people in this republic
3) Russia gives this region large amount of federal money to rebuild and renovate cities that were destroyed during prevoius wars (this even caoused the campagin "Stop feeding the Caucasus!" "Хватит кормить Кавказ!" in other parts of the country)
4) Rational thinking factor is evident here
5) No need for falsifications there
I do not say that there were no falsifications at all, but I think that it is stupid to make such conclusions using only these charts.
Sorry, are there any English sources for this stuff?
Now, here's the funny part. It is widely speculated in the Russian part of the Internets that this fraud is not Putin's doing, but rather a frame-up for Putin's party aimed at stirring shit up in the country. The ruling party would've gotten what they needed without this mess, and the voting fraud is allegedly a very rough hack job that was meant to be obvious.
It is widely speculated in the Russian part of the Internets [...] Not at all. This is the first time I see it proposed seriously, and I monitor the Russian internets quite closely.
Now, here's the funny part. It is widely speculated in the Russian part of the Internets that this fraud is not Putin's doing, but rather a frame-up for Putin's party aimed at stirring shit up in the country. The ruling party would've gotten what they needed without this mess, and the voting fraud is allegedly a very rough hack job that was meant to be obvious.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
all republics dominated by muslim minorities voted for the ruling party with rates above 95%; check caucasian republics, tatarstan, bashkir..apparently minnorities in russia love the ruling party more than russians themselves.
There perhaps is one valid reason for them to: Minorities can get big preference by being extremelly loyal. Majority can't because there is only one pie.
Now, here's the funny part. It is widely speculated in the Russian part of the Internets that this fraud is not Putin's doing, but rather a frame-up for Putin's party aimed at stirring shit up in the country. The ruling party would've gotten what they needed without this mess, and the voting fraud is allegedly a very rough hack job that was meant to be obvious.
Why would anyone think that this statistical analysis shows evidence of a fraud? One chart shows that there is no normal distribution for votes given to United Russia (UR) The other chart shows that percent of people who voted for UR grows when the number of people that voted grows Let's think, which facts have influenced the results of voting: А) External factors: 1) Votes falsification B) Personal factors: 2) Autho…
> - rregions with large number of milinary men
Huh? Does that include Moscow with what was it, 47% for UR? Can you name ONE region where concerted (fair) voting by the military can have a significant impact on the outcome?
In any case, your suggestions do not explain the spikes on "nice" numbers, nor the fact that weighting for precinct size does not make UR voting a bell curve, nor the huge differences in the UR vote across precincts sometimes located in the same building.
