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Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

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Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#41
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another explanation is that people working in government bodies in Russia (including state-funded education, healthcare and military institutions) make up some 30 million, so United Russia gets a huge number of votes just from them. Moscow has a large army of bureaucrats, you know.

And you know how they voted because?..

... because they were issued with voting papers already filled in. Check out the Al Jazeera reports on the election fraud.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#43
post #24

Why would anyone think that this statistical analysis shows evidence of a fraud? One chart shows that there is no normal distribution for votes given to United Russia (UR) The other chart shows that percent of people who voted for UR grows when the number of people that voted grows Let's think, which facts have influenced the results of voting: А) External factors: 1) Votes falsification B) Personal factors: 2) Autho…

I don't agree with the downvotes, and you have a point in that statistics cannot prove fraud. But these numbers do provide strong evidence for irregularities. > - rregions with large number of milinary men Huh? Does that include Moscow with what was it, 47% for UR? Can you name ONE region where concerted (fair) voting by the military can have a significant impact on the outcome? In any case, your suggestions do not e…

> I don't agree with the downvotes,

The ruling class of HN can be wrong?!? Say it isn't so!

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you know how they voted because?..

Because their management told them how to vote.

But that's a non sequitur. Sure, there was some pressure to actually vote UR (and that is not a sign of a free and fair election either), but what the statistics seems to show is that the final result consisted of a certain number of genuine UR votes (some of them coerced), most likely somewhere in the 30-35% region, plus the anomalous component, which we know, thanks to the election monitors, to have included (a) multiple voting; (b) ballot stuffing; (c) outright rewriting of protocols. Realistically, there is no way genuine behavioural differences could account for the multiple-of-five spikes, or to the huge variation across results in the same neighbourhood that you find so often in Moscow. And all those precincts in downtown Moscow with 80% UR and five votes for Yabloko? Puh-leez.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you know how they voted because?..

... because they were issued with voting papers already filled in. Check out the Al Jazeera reports on the election fraud.

No, that's ballot stuffing. The grandparent seemed to mean that real people who work in the government actually voted for UR, either of genuine conviction or under duress from their superiors. It would be very hard to give out filled-in paper at the voting station in full view of the monitors. The people who received filled-in ballots were hired to go round and stuff the ballot boxes at multiple locations.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#46
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another explanation is that people working in government bodies in Russia (including state-funded education, healthcare and military institutions) make up some 30 million, so United Russia gets a huge number of votes just from them. Moscow has a large army of bureaucrats, you know.

And you know how they voted because?..

Because bureaucracy has grown a lot under Putin, and those people might as well lose jobs if some other party comes to power. Also think about increases in salaries and pensions, before the elections, etc. But these do not count as direct vote-rigging.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#47
post #34

Interesting. Did you look at the polling stations at the irregular spikes? What is their number, rather than percentage. The absoulte number (even better, the number of voters in them) would indicate what effect hey had on the overall results. Also what regions are they in? In some very sparsely populated regions, like North Siberia, where "mobile" polling stations are used, the number of voters would be very small,…

The post points out that the station-by-turnout data are weighted, so the "very small precinct" argument does not fly (and why would all the very small stations all have numbers of votes that are multiples of five)? In addition, why don't we get anything remotely like the same effect in Sweden, where large parts of the country are also very sparsely populated,? Polling stations abroad are counted in the same way as p…

What is "weighted"? In which way was the percentage weighted? Why look at (weighted) percentage of turnout rather than at raw counts?

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#50

100% turnout in chechnya, 99.87% for the ruling party of one russia.... and you need statistical evidence to detect fraud!?

Have you ever looked at the vote tally in American cities?

In my city, there was only one candidate (running for judge) in the last election who didn't run on the democratic line. Another candidate was running on the Democrat, Republican, Conservative, Working Family and Independence party lines.

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