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Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

antonnikolenko.blogspot.com

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Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#31

Now, here's the funny part. It is widely speculated in the Russian part of the Internets that this fraud is not Putin's doing, but rather a frame-up for Putin's party aimed at stirring shit up in the country. The ruling party would've gotten what they needed without this mess, and the voting fraud is allegedly a very rough hack job that was meant to be obvious.

You, Sir, are Surkovite propaganda.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#32

100% turnout in chechnya, 99.87% for the ruling party of one russia.... and you need statistical evidence to detect fraud!?

all republics dominated by muslim minorities voted for the ruling party with rates above 95%; check caucasian republics, tatarstan, bashkir..apparently minnorities in russia love the ruling party more than russians themselves.

The societies there are quasi-tribal and almost everyone votes for who their elder tells them to. The elder sells the votes for favors for their tribe.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#33
For some interesting mathematical techniques that can be brought to bear on this issue, check out Benford's Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law

If you have access to the Raw Voting numbers by district/region etc, this technique could make for some interesting analysis.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#34
Interesting. Did you look at the polling stations at the irregular spikes? What is their number, rather than percentage. The absoulte number (even better, the number of voters in them) would indicate what effect hey had on the overall results. Also what regions are they in? In some very sparsely populated regions, like North Siberia, where "mobile" polling stations are used, the number of voters would be very small, but probably the attendance would be close to 100%, and I would not be surprised if they all voted for United Russia. Or, this may be due to some other peculiarity of counting what constitutes a polling station (stations abroad, the voting mechanism for people who were travelling on the day of the elections, etc). Also, please do confirm where the data comes from - is it publicly available?

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There perhaps is one valid reason for them to: Minorities can get big preference by being extremelly loyal. Majority can't because there is only one pie.

The fed money transfers from Moscow to Caucasus and nat. republics are huge, and that's their deal: Moscow pays, the republics' rulers provide near 100% votes.

Chechnya usually votes close to 100% for Putin, simply because a lot of government money is poured in Chechnya, disproportionately more than in any other region of Russia,

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#36
post #24

Why would anyone think that this statistical analysis shows evidence of a fraud? One chart shows that there is no normal distribution for votes given to United Russia (UR) The other chart shows that percent of people who voted for UR grows when the number of people that voted grows Let's think, which facts have influenced the results of voting: А) External factors: 1) Votes falsification B) Personal factors: 2) Autho…

I don't agree with the downvotes, and you have a point in that statistics cannot prove fraud. But these numbers do provide strong evidence for irregularities. > - rregions with large number of milinary men Huh? Does that include Moscow with what was it, 47% for UR? Can you name ONE region where concerted (fair) voting by the military can have a significant impact on the outcome? In any case, your suggestions do not e…

Another explanation is that people working in government bodies in Russia (including state-funded education, healthcare and military institutions) make up some 30 million, so United Russia gets a huge number of votes just from them. Moscow has a large army of bureaucrats, you know.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#38
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't agree with the downvotes, and you have a point in that statistics cannot prove fraud. But these numbers do provide strong evidence for irregularities. > - rregions with large number of milinary men Huh? Does that include Moscow with what was it, 47% for UR? Can you name ONE region where concerted (fair) voting by the military can have a significant impact on the outcome? In any case, your suggestions do not e…

Another explanation is that people working in government bodies in Russia (including state-funded education, healthcare and military institutions) make up some 30 million, so United Russia gets a huge number of votes just from them. Moscow has a large army of bureaucrats, you know.

And you know how they voted because?..

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#39
post #34

Interesting. Did you look at the polling stations at the irregular spikes? What is their number, rather than percentage. The absoulte number (even better, the number of voters in them) would indicate what effect hey had on the overall results. Also what regions are they in? In some very sparsely populated regions, like North Siberia, where "mobile" polling stations are used, the number of voters would be very small,…

The post points out that the station-by-turnout data are weighted, so the "very small precinct" argument does not fly (and why would all the very small stations all have numbers of votes that are multiples of five)? In addition, why don't we get anything remotely like the same effect in Sweden, where large parts of the country are also very sparsely populated,?

Polling stations abroad are counted in the same way as polling stations in Russia. The "traveller" votes were a prime mechanism for ballot stuffing.

Re: Russian legislative elections 2011 - statistical evidence of vote fraud

#40
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another explanation is that people working in government bodies in Russia (including state-funded education, healthcare and military institutions) make up some 30 million, so United Russia gets a huge number of votes just from them. Moscow has a large army of bureaucrats, you know.

And you know how they voted because?..

Because their management told them how to vote.
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