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I’m taking some time away from Comma

geohot.github.io

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Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#411

Post by kajecounterhack »

adhendo wrote: post #346
ra7 wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Running in small areas shows that they can drive in small mapped out areas under specific conditions. That is fully autonomous driving. It's just classified as Level 4. Geofences and operating conditions can be extended to provide a real, useful taxi service to a lot of people.

Not really. Like Karpathy mentioned in the latest lex episode, keeping an updated exact map of any area isn’t a scalable way to achieve this (which is what these geofenced services do) and isn’t how humans are able to drive.

> keeping an updated exact map of any area isn’t a scalable way to achieve this (which is what these geofenced services do) and isn’t how humans are able to drive.

Humans combine low-res maps with extremely good visual odometry & spatial reasoning. Computers don't come close to the way humans reason about space & vision yet, so stronger priors help to make up the difference.

Making it scalable to keep an updated exact map of an area is part of the work L4 companies have been doing. I think it's hard for folks on the outside to really know just how much progress has been made here. Before Google Maps existed folks didn't think you could scalably map the world either.

It's not like companies like Cruise or Waymo want to keep doing this if they can help it. It's pretty disingenuous to say that these companies don't have any incentive to jump off the mapping wagon as soon as the tech to do so exists.

In fact, L4 companies do have to deal with areas they're driving where they see the map is outdated (often these are construction zones). So either they have mapless driving capabilities to handle these cases, or they do something else (seems like Cruise cars love pulling over en masse, lol)

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#412

Post by jocker12 »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #392
jocker12 wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"No, but it does qualify for" - please check the statement my comment was responding to. The "1 step forward, 3 steps back" way the automation sector does R&D is not moving towards reality, is moving towards confusing the public to justify their pitch to eventual investors. "That's okay." - Maybe for you, but not for investors and for the market. "Why?" - It's unsustainable, requiring resources (provided at this poin…

> 1 step forward, 3 steps back What are the steps back? They're slow but they're improving. And they don't need to reach their original lofty goal. > "Why?" - It's unsustainable Sorry, the "Why" was directed at the level of scientific achievement you claim they need.

"What are the steps back?" - every step forward, no matter in which direction, requires more computing power from a limited computing source that gets power from a limited power source (limited because they are mobile not plugged to a network). By using more computing, the system would prioritize towards the "step forward", allocating less resources to other processes (other sensors or the new electronic system of that vehicle). More computing power (when more essential processes get to have better performance) is requiring more electricity, from a solely electric vehicle with a limited battery capacity, that ultimately would generate shorter battery range available. The more computing power and more battery power you add on any vehicle, the more you increase the vehicle manufacturing or acquiring costs.

"the level of scientific achievement" - every single step, every single minute and every single individual (the financial input), is prohibitively expensive for this R&D project, and it is not justified by any means by the results (the financial output), Companies and investors don't care about progress. They care about profits, and, in case progress would stay in their path to make profits, they'll fight against it. You should check waymo salaries, hardware prices, operations costs, and fleet management costs. From operational POV, every mile covered by those vehicles translates into a price payed by the company, money that are not recovered whatsoever at this point. Vehicle lifecycle, insurance, maintenance, cleaning and the electricity used, adds up very quickly and could go as high as half a billion dollars per year - "Argo has about 1,300 employees and is likely burning through at least $500 million a year, industry participants say." (https://www.theinformation.com/articles/argo-ai-planning-pub...). Now remember how in business, any investor usually expects to make 10 times his or her investment, in this case (the Argo.ai example) meaning that the profits (after all expenses and taxes are substracted) to be around $5 billion per year. This is the reason why Ford decided to shut down Argo, which was burning half a Billion a year with no end in sight. To directly address your statement - the scientific level needed would require way too much money to justify the road to accomplish it. Basically, all those parts interested either do not have those money, or are part of a business model that requires substantial returns on a relatively short term, and cannot afford to finance projects with constantly moving delivery dates for fictional ideas.

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#413

Post by Ptchd »

capableweb wrote: post #289
Dave3of5 wrote: post #62

So you can buy this thing off the internet install it yourself and let it drive your car around for you. How legal would that be if it crashed my car or ran someone over? My mind is blown here. Obviously it only works with specific cars that can turn the wheel for you so my 2015 ford focus is impossible but I mean wtf.

> How legal would that be if it crashed my car or ran someone over? Generally it is not legal for you to crash your car into others private property (or public for that matter) or run someone over. Just because you have some electronics connected to your car that you installed yourself, doesn't shift over the liability to someone else. Not sure why your mind is blown here. People are allowed to modify their cars, but…

> Just because you have some electronics connected to your car that you installed yourself, doesn't shift over the liability to someone else.

probably will eventually...

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#414

Post by paulryanrogers »

tim333 wrote: post #407
paulryanrogers wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one is saying people cannot experiment. We'd just not rather be the unsuspecting rats in Tesla's try-not-to-kill-too-many-pedestrians beta.

Well personally I'd rather not be any of the 1.35 million annual road deaths. It wouldn't make a huge difference to me if I was one of the 0.000001% got by a Tesla or one of the other ones. If you want to help US pedestrians you'd be much better going after SUVs and pickups https://www.webmd.com/first-aid/news/20220318/turning-pickup...

We can do both. And based on interventions per mile driven I'd say Tesla's are a whole new level of danger.

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#415

Post by lovehashbrowns »

icpmacdo wrote: post #395
lovehashbrowns wrote: post #57

Kinda surprising that he's stepping away from Comma.ai after they just opened their new office in San Diego. Anyhow, there's a Hotz stream out in the world where he completes a few of those hacking challenge exercises. George is an amazing engineer and I use that stream as a metric for where I want to be in my knowledge and technical ability.

A link to that would be awesome if possible

Should be this one: https://youtu.be/Sx7JszqkL-w

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#416

Post by joenot443 »

mchaver wrote: post #405
joenot443 wrote: post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'Judeo-Christian values' is actually phrase coined by George Orwell, but it's clear that you're much better studied on the topic. Any Christian or Jew will obviously acknowledge the many differences between the faiths, but I'm confused that you seem to be saying there aren't HUGE similarities in their value systems. Do you have many Jewish or Christian friends? I feel as if your understanding of Jewish/Christian cult…

> 'Judeo-Christian values' is actually phrase coined by George Orwell I didn't know that, but this phrase seems to be common in the US. I have not encountered it much elsewhere. > I'm confused that you seem to be saying there aren't HUGE similarities in their value systems I don't deny there are many similarities, but my lived experience is that the core values and tenets of the two religions are quite different. May…

Ultimately I agree, Abrahamic is a much better term.

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#417

Post by incrudible »

brindlejim wrote: post #375
incrudible wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does it even mean to "believe in democracy" and is it a moral failing not to do so? Putin was elected democratically and still has a strong majority supporting him.

"Believing in democracy" means believing that granting real power to all adult citizens through voting and other forms of feedback is a better form of government than those governmental forms that only grant power to a few. Say, to the members of the central committee of the Communist Party, as in China. Or to a tiny group of oligarchs, apparatchiks and propagandists, as in Russia. Or to a royal family and its courti…

> "Believing in democracy" means believing that granting real power to all adult citizens through voting and other forms of feedback is a better form of government than those governmental forms that only grant power to a few.

That's a false dichotomy. In a western democracy, do you vote for the things you believe in, or do you vote for one of the few representatives that pretends to approximate your beliefs closely?

> Democratic leaders can easily fall due to scandal. Authoritarian figures cannot.

Is that true? What if the people likes authoritarians? What if it doesn't care about scandals? What if it democratically decides it doesn't want "free and fair elections" anymore? If the majority wants "the wrong things", the outcome will be poor. Democracy is not the distinguishing factor, it's not inherently good or bad, functional or dysfunctional.

> So sure, you can believe that Putin was elected democratically if you want.

The proceedings may be illegitimate, but there's no doubt in my mind that the Russians would have elected Putin over Navalny again. Of course there is an opposition in Russia, but it's not a majority and in any event Navalny isn't all that popular.

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#418

Post by lawrenceyan »

serf wrote: post #320
deltree7 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a fan of George Hotz. But don't be a cult

Excited to see what Hotz gets into next. An ounce of humility might do him some good, but i'd be hesitant to recommend it to someone like that and ruin his whole edge -- similar to Musk, I think that attitude is huge with regards to their personal effectiveness. now a short story that your cult comment conjured in my head: the year is 2122. the Muskalonian robotic death squad approaches the last cave hold-out of Hotz…

You should get into sci-fi. I'd read this.

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#419

Post by [deleted] »

incrudible wrote: post #417
brindlejim wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Believing in democracy" means believing that granting real power to all adult citizens through voting and other forms of feedback is a better form of government than those governmental forms that only grant power to a few. Say, to the members of the central committee of the Communist Party, as in China. Or to a tiny group of oligarchs, apparatchiks and propagandists, as in Russia. Or to a royal family and its courti…

> "Believing in democracy" means believing that granting real power to all adult citizens through voting and other forms of feedback is a better form of government than those governmental forms that only grant power to a few. That's a false dichotomy. In a western democracy, do you vote for the things you believe in, or do you vote for one of the few representatives that pretends to approximate your beliefs closely?…

[deleted]

Re: I’m taking some time away from Comma

#420

Post by Apocryphon »

incrudible wrote: post #370
brindlejim wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fwiw, Bronze Age Pervert (BAP) is actually a classics scholar named Costin Alamariu, who holds a PhD from Yale and wrote a dissertation on the tyrants of antiquity. He puts on a Slavic accent for his podcast, but he moved to the US as a boy and speaks perfect American English. BAP wrote a book popular in right-wing circles called Bronze-Age Mindset. In the late teens, it was reviewed in a couple of the usual places b…

What does it even mean to "believe in democracy" and is it a moral failing not to do so? Putin was elected democratically and still has a strong majority supporting him.

Not "believe in democracy" for this political subculture often means endorsing the revival of monarchy, which is what Curtis Yarvin supports. Many adherents have read Hoppe's Democracy: The God That Failed, which is somewhat of a seminal work on that thesis:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy:_The_God_That_Failed

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