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Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

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Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#331
post #130
post #119

I accept that fiat money is entirely supported by the notion of perpetual growth, but in the abstract it's hard to come to terms with the idea our society is so fundamentally committed to, and reliant upon, growth .

An economy can function without growth. Stagnation is perfectly viable. But why should a society not be fundamentally committed to growth and aspire to increasing greatness?

Relying on growth generally means taking on debt and risking large sums of capital on projects with the hope that it brings a return.

Some projects will work out, and some won't. When you're a company this is largely fine -- the worst case is that the company goes under, dissolves, and employees move on to new positions at new companies.

When you're a city, failure is not an option. Chicago officials can't simply say "welp, that investment didn't pay off like expected", shut down the water lines, and ride a golden parachute into the sunset while its citizens fend for themselves.

What's more, at the local level, the city's revenue is largely unaffected by successful growth-targeting projects. Any revenue that comes from GDP is largely in the form of sales and income taxes, which largely go to the state and the fed. So if a city is tracking GDP as a key metric they're in for a rough time. It means they're getting saddled with 100% of the maintenance liability of projects, and (usually) 0% of the revenue.

Unless a project is bringing in more citizens and growing the tax base, it's going to operate in the red no matter what. Most commonly, the project will be a road or highway that ends up displacing people, spreading them out, and diluting the tax base.

So at least at the local level, focusing on growth, specifically as measured by GDP, is a recipe for disaster (e.g. Detroit). I'd much rather my city focus on some other metric that's tied to sustainability.

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#332
GDP is a poor metric. Of course it's not going anywhere. They'll be measuring GDP 1000 years from now; but perhaps we have a better metric that gets the spot light instead. It's upon folks like nature to find the new metric. After this movement in 2014, there was a even worse attempt to use 'happiness' as a measurement but that sure fell on its face badly.

To me there are a few immediate problems with GDP that if addressed and measured may start showing a different picture of the world.

RAW GDP in 2021 for the USA is about 23 trillion; an increase from 21 trillion. You have to exclude unfunded debt. Which is roughly 2 trillion in 2021. Then you also have to exclude, NOT include public administration. So a 4 trillion shift. We are roughly at 15 trillion.

Then you also have to exclude inflation; which at these measurement points was roughly 7%. So we're about 14 trillion from the original 21 trillion.

So in 2021, the claim was 6% gdp growth, but true GDP was more along the lines of -30%. This is shocking, but mainly because we're looking at a fake 21 trillion. So we would have to do the same transform on the 2020 numbers.

Basically what I'm illustrating is government deficit spending, real gdp, and public administration are some significant negatives to GDP.

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#333
post #164
post #75

"The philosopher John Stuart Mill noted more than 200 years ago that, once decent living standards were assured, human efforts should be directed to the pursuit of social and moral progress and the increase of leisure, not the competitive struggle for material wealth" Yes, we took the wrong turn. Most people are subjected to a life long rat race of economic relevance/volatility where most of their waking hours are sp…

Wrong turn? Rat race? Compared to what? Your ancestors 200 years ago were malnourished, working the fields all day to eke out a miserable existence, never enjoying a single luxury in life. They didn't know how to read or write, and in any case wouldn't have had time for such luxurious activities. Human progress has brought us to the point where we have the free time to complain about how disadvantaged we are and how…

The system crushed us so bad that people like you think we're living in the utopiest of utopias, even the idea of a better future disappeared, even suggesting it could have been better seems to trigger an allergic reaction, the cogs are willing to die for the machine that grinds them, and they seem happy about it. You focus on material goods while completely ignoring what came with it and what it took away from us, as if accumulating goods was a goal in itself. The bed of a min wage worker might be more luxurious than a king's bed from 200 years ago I very much doubt his life is anything luxurious, especially in comparison of a king's life

> Compared to what?

Compared to what it could have been

I have a worse life than my grandparents by almost any conceivable metrics besides the fact that I own and consume more useless shit. They had no degrees, five kids and could afford to live in a city center. I have 0 kids, a master's degree and will never be able to afford 5 kids, let alone in a city center

> Human progress has brought us to the point where we have the free time to complain about how disadvantaged we are and how unfair life is

I work more and will work longer than my grandparents, I don't expect I'll be able to retire before 70, if not more. In France 25% of the poorest already die before reaching retirement age.

> that our daily lives are far more luxurious than those of kings who lived 200 years ago.

I'm still sitting a desk desk 8 hours a day, probably for the next 40 years, while technocrats of the 60s promised automation would bring the 3 days/15 hours workweek

> The more he contemplates, the less he lives; the more he identifies with the dominant images of need, the less he understands his own life and his own desires.

> The pseudoneeds imposed by modern consumerism cannot be opposed by any genuine needs or desires that are not themselves also shaped by society and its history. But commodity abundance represents a total break in the organic development of social needs. Its mechanical accumulation unleashes an unlimited artificiality which overpowers any living desire. The cumulative power of this autonomous artificiality ends up by falsifying all social life.

Guy Debord, 1962

> The necessity of production is so easily proved that any hack philosopher of industrialism can fill ten books with it. Unfortunately for these neo-economist thinkers, these proofs belong to the nineteenth century, a time when the misery of the working classes made the right to work the counterpart of the right to be a slave, claimed at the dawn of time by prisoners about to be massacred. Above all it was a question of surviving, of not disappearing physically. The imperatives of production are the imperatives of survival; from now on, people want to live, not just to survive.

> The distance has not changed between those who possess a lot and those who possess a small but ever-increasing amount; but the intermediate stages have multiplied, and have, so to speak, brought the two extremes, rulers and ruled, closer to the same centre of mediocrity. To be rich nowadays merely means to possess a large number of poor objects.

Raoul Vaneigem, 1967

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#334
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> GDP is a concrete measure that is difficult to fake The best counter to that I've ever heard: "Let's say I pay you $10M to eat a pile of shit, then for kicks you pay me $10M to eat a similar pile of shit. You know what the end result is? The GDP has increased $20M, and we both have huge shit-eating grins". The GDP is laughably easy to fake.

> "Let's say I pay you $10M to eat a pile of shit, then for kicks you pay me $10M to eat a similar pile of shit. You know what the end result is? The GDP has increased $20M, and we both have huge shit-eating grins". If people were buying piles of shit for $10M, then that is what the GDP would be. That's not faking GDP.

This interpretation of GDP requires that price is equivalent to value. Good luck convincing anyone, even hardcore free market essentialists, of that notion.

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Night light is easy to fake with upward-facing illuminators.

Additionally the modern trend, in many types of public lighting, is to reduce the amount of light which shines upwards in order to increase efficient and lower light pollution.

I was hesitant to mention this, but yes, it run counter to widespread initiatives to reduce light pollution

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Entertainment is positive value ("I want to watch/play/whatever this because I enjoy it"), healthcare is compensation for negative value ("I got injured and want to feel a little less shit"). Nobody goes to the doctor just because they felt like doing it that day. Counting the positive contribution of healthcare without counting the negative contributions of the injuries that lead people to seek healthcare is going t…

Exactly. Putting health care in GDP also puts a positive light on rising health care costs -- and in the US there is nominally zero consumer power against rising health care costs. Most of the time it's impossible to know how much something will cost prior to the appointment, procedure, etc -- so people cannot "vote with their wallet" like they can with other spending.

It doesn’t put healthcare costs in a positive light, it puts the economic surplus to support healthcare spending in a positive light.

There’s a subtle but critical difference between them. Namely you can simply increase healthcare spending by 100x in the US without dramatic improvements in other parts of the economy.

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#337
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, if you contract your services to that company, your contribution to GDP gets cancelled out by the intermediate consumption of that company purchasing your services. The GDP is the same either way.

How does it get cancelled out? Take this example: Company A has $1M revenue from creating services or products. Then my company B invoices company A for $250K. GDP is $1.25M. I do not report who I billed to the government who compiles GDP. So I don't see how they can not include my services as part of GDP.

Company A reports $250K in non-employee-compensation expenses to the government. This intermediate consumption gets removed from their share of the GDP, so the total is ($1M-$250K) + $250K = $1M.

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#338
post #309
post #68

The title/article seems to be a bit of a strawman, AFAICT countries (or their governments / citizens) do not consider the GDP as the one and only measure of national success. Politics are driven by tons of different interest groups (in the broadest sense, ranging from corporate interests, environmental activists, minority representatives, medical or teaching professionals, farmers, retirees living on state pensions,…

> In truth, pretty much nobody really knows for sure what policies actually will increase GDP... Have they tried securing access to large amounts of cheap energy? It is a bit of a win-win because either GDP goes up and case closed or they can sit back and relax in luxury mulling why GDP didn't go up despite massive increases in the general prosperity. Energy isn't the entire story because there also need to be people…

Every country tries securing cheap energy; that's what energy markets are for.

There is no such thing as a trivial win here. And trying to secure it could end up costing significant GDP, as demonstrated by wars fought over securing energy.

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

can you name one, please?

Deficit spending, as other posters have pointed out is perhaps one of the biggest policy decision all governments take every year. Its always presented as a percentage of GDP to make it palatable.

Again, Can you name one law which ties deficit spending to GDP?

Newsflash,

We did deficit spending when ratio was 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 1.0, 1.2

We will do deficit spending when ratio was 1.4, 1.6 or 2

Re: Gross domestic product is a misleading measure of national success (2014)

#340
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Putting health care in GDP also puts a positive light on rising health care costs -- and in the US there is nominally zero consumer power against rising health care costs. Most of the time it's impossible to know how much something will cost prior to the appointment, procedure, etc -- so people cannot "vote with their wallet" like they can with other spending.

It doesn’t put healthcare costs in a positive light, it puts the economic surplus to support healthcare spending in a positive light. There’s a subtle but critical difference between them. Namely you can simply increase healthcare spending by 100x in the US without dramatic improvements in other parts of the economy.

This would be true if health care costs were discretionary, but they are not.

Your bank account going to zero due to breaking a leg, or medication needs, or X is not a sign of a a healthy economy. If that health care demand hadn't occurred, you could have spent your "economic surplus" in a way of your choosing -- perhaps frivolously or perhaps on something that provides longer term financial upside to you, your family, your community, whatever.

The problem with counting health care costs as part of GDP in the US is that it is a cost which is not distributed in any rational way -- local markets have vastly different service costs, employers have vastly different bargaining power with insurance companies, and individuals have vastly different health care needs with vastly different costs associated.

If health care were normalized and distributed across a population (instead of cost burden ultimately falling to individuals) then I can see the reason to count it as part of GDP. Then it's somewhat analogous to physical infrastructure -- a healthy economy can support spending money on infrastructure.

But, no one goes bankrupt because the town voted to increase taxes slightly to pay for a new road or renovating the local library. Health care cost is the number one cause of bankruptcy in the US -- health care cost increasing does not necessarily mean there is "economic surplus" to support it, instead more people could be driven to bankruptcy.

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