Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not even geohot is asserting that "SAE Level 2 is the most practical self-driving we are ever going to get", his assertion is that he thinks nobody is going to get there in the next 10 years. He may be right that we won't get there broadly for 10 years, but I think that's a rationalization of how things have gone for him, and the fact that the methods he has worked on don't have a chance of getting there, rather than…
You don't have to tell me about Waymo. I live where they operate. I'm one of the few people in the United States who can actually use their service. They limit where you can go by an approximate 4x9 city block area, and actually less than that, I'm being generous. You have no idea exactly how limited the service is. Effectively, you can't go ANYWHERE in the Phoenix metro area unless your A-to-B destination is squarel…
Clearly there is non-zero development risk here, but I don't think it's going so badly that it's definitely going to take 10+ years to launch in a metro area with millions of people.
It may take a decade to get to a coast-to-coast system, but there's not a whole lot of incentive to build that vs serving a few large metros in the near future.