US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

Post by cwkoss » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 5:10 PM UTC

subsubzero wrote: post #60

importantbrian wrote: post #6

This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…

It is weird, they say history does not repeat but it rhymes. What is troubling about this good news about GDP growth is the fed's course of raising interest rates will continue on and interest rates will keep getting higher and higher. This will lead to a housing market that will grind to a halt and expect that whole sector will hemorrhage jobs. In addition growth companies will be hit hard by rates being high as we…

Post by Auracle » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 5:11 PM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #102

subsubzero wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is weird, they say history does not repeat but it rhymes. What is troubling about this good news about GDP growth is the fed's course of raising interest rates will continue on and interest rates will keep getting higher and higher. This will lead to a housing market that will grind to a halt and expect that whole sector will hemorrhage jobs. In addition growth companies will be hit hard by rates being high as we…

Mortgage rates at 7% is pretty much the average mortgage rate going back 70 years or so. We're basically at the average mortgage rate now. The Fed screwed up by keeping rates too low for too long which juiced home prices such that a huge chunk of people who would like to be able to buy a home are priced out of the market. The problem, though, is that home building needs to continue in order to improve the housing sup…

Post by roamerz » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 5:12 PM UTC

Post by joxel » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 5:12 PM UTC

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #72

nostrademons wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market, interest rates, and advertising spending are leading indicators, while unemployment is a lagging indicator. Business leaders know the financial structure of their company, and many of them know that they can't survive at 2% rates, let alone 5 or 10% rates. The gloom from business leaders is forward-looking. They're fine for now , while consumer spending holds up and they can run on old debt. But as…

>they manage as if a Fed pivot is coming We can't argue this both ways. You can't argue that business leaders are acting as if the fed will pivot away from the current course when the parent is pointing out that they are all tightening in preparation for more to come.

Post by desiarnezjr » Thu, Oct 27, 2022, 5:13 PM UTC

jvanderbot wrote: post #43

brink wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't worry, population collapse will fix this in another ~20-30 years. You'll get there.

Depending on where you live, population collapse is either a myth, meme, overblown but remote possibility, or absolute certainty. In most western nations, it's not going to be that big of a deal, I wager. In areas with net emigration, especially those that are not good at sharing true demographics with their leaders, it'll be devastating.