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U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

reuters.com

51–60 of 297 posts

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#51
post #46

I saw someone point out that this interest rate hike will effectively nullify any bubble breaks. House prices could drop over 30% (the amount it dropped in the last housing bubble popping) and the monthly mortgage payment will still be more than it was before. A terrible time to be looking for a house.

>A terrible time to be looking for a house. This has been a true statement since like, what, 2008?

You're not wrong, but it's dramatically worse than it was even 6 years ago.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#53

I saw someone point out that this interest rate hike will effectively nullify any bubble breaks. House prices could drop over 30% (the amount it dropped in the last housing bubble popping) and the monthly mortgage payment will still be more than it was before. A terrible time to be looking for a house.

A good time to be looking for a house. A terrible time to be looking for a mortgage.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#54

If rates go from a low of 2% up to, say, 9%, then in order to keep the mortgage payment the same, the price of a $400,000 house would have to drop to around $230,000. This assumes a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and the details will vary depending on money down, etc. but the basic fact remains that house prices will need to fall by a lot, down to levels of 5 years ago or more, before the current interest rate hiking c…

Most of the people I speak to who locked in Current renters will have lower potential to save on a monthly basis, only to get 30-40% off on their first home with a >7% interest rate. If you sum the lost savings from rent plus the additional interest payment, it is uncertain whether that is the best strategy. That is also assuming real estate prices in certain regions wont hold stronger value, which they probably will…

>Current renters will have lower potential to save on a monthly basis

It's cheaper to rent than to buy in many markets and if you own you have to factor in maintenance, property taxes, and insurance. It's definitely not as black and white as you're making it out to be.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#55
Financial Ignoramus here - looking back - were ultra low rates a mistake? It seems insane that this number has grown so much since even last year. Would slowly growing them over a longer period have been better than these huge jumps? It seems wrong that I refinanced a 500k mortgage last year and I would be paying ~35% less per month than someone who did the same thing today.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#56
post #17

If rates go from a low of 2% up to, say, 9%, then in order to keep the mortgage payment the same, the price of a $400,000 house would have to drop to around $230,000. This assumes a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and the details will vary depending on money down, etc. but the basic fact remains that house prices will need to fall by a lot, down to levels of 5 years ago or more, before the current interest rate hiking c…

A lot of people simply won't sell in that situation which is going to further constrain supply.

Exactly, prices don't fall in symmetrical ways as they rise in happy times due to people's greed (or patience to wait). Seen it in 2008 and even before.

Now it we are facing truly cataclysmic long term situation down the road never ever seen before (or at least comparable to 1929) that's a different story, but few insiders believe that now.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#57
post #43

Isn't there "midterm" elections coming up in two months in the US? Aren't moves like spiking the rent to induce mass unemployment likely to benefit the Republican party? It can't be a winning strategy.

The federal reserve is independent from government. This has nothing to do with any political party.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#58
post #43

Isn't there "midterm" elections coming up in two months in the US? Aren't moves like spiking the rent to induce mass unemployment likely to benefit the Republican party? It can't be a winning strategy.

My father, in the 1970's, took an adjustable rate mortgage because he thought there was no way they would keep hiking rates with a presidential election coming. However, Volcker and company hiked the rates anyway (to levels far higher than today's), and he took a financial beating on his house payment.

I'm sure the Democrats are not crazy about higher interest rates (although inflation is also bad politically), but they don't have control of the Fed, at least not in the short term.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#59

I saw someone point out that this interest rate hike will effectively nullify any bubble breaks. House prices could drop over 30% (the amount it dropped in the last housing bubble popping) and the monthly mortgage payment will still be more than it was before. A terrible time to be looking for a house.

Was looking at a house. A 2% mortgage vs a 7% mortgage effectively doubles the cost of the mortgages every month. It's a stupid time to buy a house.

Re: U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001

#60
post #8

The difference is higher inflation, which likely leads to higher pay rises, so actually the real interest rate is lower than it was.

Only if you believe high inflation to continue over the majority of the mortgage duration.

But then you can refi at lower rates...
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