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Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

blog.waymo.com

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Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#91

Very exciting news, as more people use autonomous vehicles, the less parking needs there will be and hopefully more parking lots can be reclaimed with plant life, that benefits the whole earth with better air and calming energy.

Parking lots, especially in cities like LA, are not going to be repurposed into green spaces if this comes to fruition

It’s not impossible. Portland’s Pioneer Courthouse Square used to be a two-story parking garage.

Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#92
post #90

Can confirm having seen Waymo vehicle's driving in my hood several times this past week. I'm concerned that Waymo will never be able to drive "the LA way" and ultimately cause congestion. For example it's standard in LA that when the light turns yellow then two cars are able to make a left turn in time to not back up the perpendicular Lane. Or if you are turning left you should try to make room on your right, so that…

San Francisco driving's got it's own challenges but they have unprotected lefts as well.

Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#93

> When we think about our next cities, Los Angeles jumps out,” said Waymo’s co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana. “LA is a remarkable, vibrant place – and Waymo’s experience leaves us best positioned to tackle its driving complexity. That's a funny way to say the next biggest place with 300 days of sun per year.

I don't understand the division of CEO roles into two CO-CEOs. Is this generally effective? I would imagine this would make tough decision making nearly impossible? Who takes the blame for bad decisions vs. good decisions? Anyone have some history on why Waymo has two CEOs?

A company the size of Alphabet doesn't even understand the meaning of the adjective "chief", as in, "most important." Also, the "co-CEO" is a womens' studies lawyer that spent 16 years managing "public policy" at each failing company de-jour of the past decades: AOL, Yahoo, eBay, and is now "co-CEO" of an extremely technical company? Yikes.

Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing the millions of professional drivers with low marginal cost software can both makes boat loads of money and make transportation cheaper.

But you're replacing low-paid drivers that supply their own cheap cars with very high marginal-cost cars and sensors (and low marginal cost software). Its hard to imagine them turning a profit from owning and operating a fleet of cars - it seems like a business model closer to Hertz than Uber, and neither are terribly profitable.

Huh? Seems like the current Waymo cars run a little under $200K with all the sensors. Obviously that's going to come down at scale to something closer to $100K let's say.

And yes you can contrast that with a $25K Uber vehicle, but the average US Uber driver makes $42K a year, and since taxis are traditionally split into 3 shifts, we can assume the cost of a 24-hour driver is closer to $100K. In NYC, Uber drivers make something like $30/hr, which means $263K/yr for a 24/7 driver.

So a "low-paid driver" costs as much in a year as one or two single autonomous vehicles. In which case, it's hard to imagine Waymo not turning a profit. The reason Hertz and Uber aren't particularly profitable is because they have tons of competition, there's no real competitive moat. While Waymo is going to undercut driver-based rideshare drastically. It's going to make tons of money once the R&D is recouped.

Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you're replacing low-paid drivers that supply their own cheap cars with very high marginal-cost cars and sensors (and low marginal cost software). Its hard to imagine them turning a profit from owning and operating a fleet of cars - it seems like a business model closer to Hertz than Uber, and neither are terribly profitable.

Huh? Seems like the current Waymo cars run a little under $200K with all the sensors. Obviously that's going to come down at scale to something closer to $100K let's say. And yes you can contrast that with a $25K Uber vehicle, but the average US Uber driver makes $42K a year , and since taxis are traditionally split into 3 shifts, we can assume the cost of a 24-hour driver is closer to $100K. In NYC, Uber drivers mak…

You're probably right, but given just how much money has been poured into R&D, it seems like it might be a little bit of while before they get there.

Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#96

Very exciting news, as more people use autonomous vehicles, the less parking needs there will be and hopefully more parking lots can be reclaimed with plant life, that benefits the whole earth with better air and calming energy.

Or more housing. Or virtually anything else would be a better use of land than parking lots.

The amount of valuable land that widespread deployment of autonomous vehicles could unlock is just staggering. Not to mention the avoided costs of building undercover garages.

Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#98
post #33

Great news! It does seem like the 5th gen hardware will enable scale and real revenue generating operations for Waymo. The videos coming out of driverless rides in SF [1][2] and Downtown Phoenix [3] (both employee-only currently) look very impressive. So I don’t doubt they can crack LA. It will be interesting to see how Waymo progressively reduces deploy time in a new city. [1] https://youtu.be/ZBvce_eC28A [2] https:…

Downtown Phoenix riders (currently Trusted Tester) are allowed in rider-only / driverless [1]:

> Downtown Phoenix: Now offering paid rider-only trips to Waymo employees and Trusted Testers.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/29/23323593/waymo-driverless...

Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? Seems like the current Waymo cars run a little under $200K with all the sensors. Obviously that's going to come down at scale to something closer to $100K let's say. And yes you can contrast that with a $25K Uber vehicle, but the average US Uber driver makes $42K a year , and since taxis are traditionally split into 3 shifts, we can assume the cost of a 24-hour driver is closer to $100K. In NYC, Uber drivers mak…

You're probably right, but given just how much money has been poured into R&D, it seems like it might be a little bit of while before they get there.

The $5.5B they've raised is only $15 per American.

If this is a service people spend $500/yr on then they'll recoup it pretty quickly I think.

Re: Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing the millions of professional drivers with low marginal cost software can both makes boat loads of money and make transportation cheaper.

But you're replacing low-paid drivers that supply their own cheap cars with very high marginal-cost cars and sensors (and low marginal cost software). Its hard to imagine them turning a profit from owning and operating a fleet of cars - it seems like a business model closer to Hertz than Uber, and neither are terribly profitable.

If you can make a predictable profit per car on scale, you can likely find somebody to finance the cars.
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