The difference is that Waymo works and FSD does not work, so it's going to be a short video. FSD cannot take a trip without a man behind the wheel, full stop. It is not any more "self driving" than any other car.
But the person can just sit there and not continue to drive after an intervention. I don’t see why this video wouldn’t be possible or interesting.
My Honda Civic also proceeds in a more or less forward direction between driver interventions, but it is not self-driving.
But you're replacing low-paid drivers that supply their own cheap cars with very high marginal-cost cars and sensors (and low marginal cost software). Its hard to imagine them turning a profit from owning and operating a fleet of cars - it seems like a business model closer to Hertz than Uber, and neither are terribly profitable.
On a per mile basis they might not be expensive per car. Hertz and Uber struggle because of competition, not business model. If Waymo is the only self driving player and hence lowest cost mode of transportation, they'll make a fortune. If there are several players, they won't.
They have plenty of competition though - if Waymo is operating a taxi service, they are explicitly competing with Uber/Lyft/traditional taxis/bikes/buses/all the other ways to move around - generally pretty low-margin businesses where their competitors set a pretty strict ceiling on the price you can charge (who would pay a lot more for a waymo ride vs a competitor? maybe some, but not many). Waymo would have high capital costs for the cars, plus still need centralized service infrastructure (re-fueling, re-charging, who cleans a waymo when a drunk person throws up in it?). It would also still have the same problem other companies have - lots of people might want to travel to/from work, and on weekend evenings (or to big events), but not much the rest of the time. An uber vehicle might serve double duty as a personal vehicle during off-peak times (where the driver might even have a different job), but a waymo car needs to pay for itself, so it needs to be driving a lot. I could see them licensing their software to other companies like android auto or something, but that also doesn't seem like a way to print money (how much does android auto earn for google?). It just seems like a very hard business to transition from 'fun software project' to 'clearly profitable independent business.'
They mention unprotected left turns. I'm really curious how this will be handled in LA because there are a lot, and if you aren't at least a little aggressive, you will miss lights constantly. And some lights are miserable if the cars turning left in front of you are passive, and only one makes it through per light change.
Missing lights isn’t a problem when your time and attention isn’t consumed by the pointless toil of driving. It’s just the same 2 minutes it takes to microwave some popcorn.
On a per mile basis they might not be expensive per car. Hertz and Uber struggle because of competition, not business model. If Waymo is the only self driving player and hence lowest cost mode of transportation, they'll make a fortune. If there are several players, they won't.
They have plenty of competition though - if Waymo is operating a taxi service, they are explicitly competing with Uber/Lyft/traditional taxis/bikes/buses/all the other ways to move around - generally pretty low-margin businesses where their competitors set a pretty strict ceiling on the price you can charge (who would pay a lot more for a waymo ride vs a competitor? maybe some, but not many). Waymo would have high ca…
Agree with most of what you are saying, except that the driver is a big enough component of the cost structure that they should be able to price something like 20% below services that require a car. I just took a $65 uber yesterday which took I think 42 mins. Assuming the driver cost $15/hr and is running at 75%(??) capacity, the labor cost baked into my ride was around $15. If Waymo offered the same ride at $55 (ie leave $5 on the table for some of the issues you highlight), Uber etc are in a lot of trouble.
Google is known for a lot of things, like cancelling products, but "dark patterns" is definitely not one of its things. Of course they'll squeeze out maximum profit, like every other company does. Fortunately, you can just check out the Wikipedia article on "profit maximization" to understand why maximum profit doesn't come from maximum prices, but generally comes from a middle price that attracts more customers. In…
> but "dark patterns" is definitely not one of its things. I think you're improperly informed; let me present you just one of many instances that prove my point [0]. [0]: https://www.extremetech.com/internet/330907-google-accused-o...
You’re both right. Google
doesn’t use dark patterns to nickel and dime like most companies do, so it seems like they don’t.
They absolutely use all means necessary to preserve the data feeds and tracking that enables their core advertising business, such as the fact that incognito mode, well, isn’t incognito.
They mention unprotected left turns. I'm really curious how this will be handled in LA because there are a lot, and if you aren't at least a little aggressive, you will miss lights constantly. And some lights are miserable if the cars turning left in front of you are passive, and only one makes it through per light change.
Missing lights isn’t a problem when your time and attention isn’t consumed by the pointless toil of driving. It’s just the same 2 minutes it takes to microwave some popcorn.
Yea, that's a fair point. Though I'd still be upset if I'm waiting in a line of Waymos turning left that go once per light change when I'm not in a self-driving car.
> That's a funny way to say the next biggest place with 300 days of sun per year. Why does that matter?
Self driving cars don’t work in rain/snow
What happens to the passengers if you're on the freeway and it starts to rain. Does the car just dump them on the shoulder? Or is it smart enough to find a good place nearby to kick them out?
They mention unprotected left turns. I'm really curious how this will be handled in LA because there are a lot, and if you aren't at least a little aggressive, you will miss lights constantly. And some lights are miserable if the cars turning left in front of you are passive, and only one makes it through per light change.
Missing lights isn’t a problem when your time and attention isn’t consumed by the pointless toil of driving. It’s just the same 2 minutes it takes to microwave some popcorn.
That’s the same experience as being in a taxi though, and plenty of people get frustrated by slow taxi rides. Nobody wants to spend more time than they have to in a taxi, whether driven by a human or computer.
I completely agree. And autonomous vehicles solve none of the issues of regular cars, except maybe injury rate. The rest is the same -- emissions, inefficiency, expense, noise, traffic congestion, unwalkable cities, and so on.
They're electric, so that solves the emissions and noise problems. Once self-driving cars are common people will figure out that it's safe to jaywalk in front of them, and nobody minds inconveniencing a robot, so I expect jaywalking to rise substantially too. A self-driving hire car isn't idle 23 hours a day like a normal car so that should solve some of the inefficiency and expense issues. All I'm left with on your…
I'm pro-electric car, but I wouldn't say they solve the emissions problem. Tailpipe emissions, sure. But tire particulates are a surprisingly large fraction of current automotive emissions, and they're not going away.
In fact, if real self driving ever becomes widespread, it's likely to induce demand (sure, why not live a 2 hour drive from work if you can relax the whole drive home?) which will lead to increased tire emissions.
Can confirm having seen Waymo vehicle's driving in my hood several times this past week. I'm concerned that Waymo will never be able to drive "the LA way" and ultimately cause congestion.
For example it's standard in LA that when the light turns yellow then two cars are able to make a left turn in time to not back up the perpendicular Lane.
Or if you are turning left you should try to make room on your right, so that those going straight can get around you. No way Waymo vehicles will be doing that.
All in all there are certain behaviors that are necessary in a city with traffic like LA that would certainly be outside the strict safety parameters that (I assume) Waymo operates under.