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> That's a funny way to say the next biggest place with 300 days of sun per year. Why does that matter?
Self driving cars don’t work in rain/snow
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...yet. I think Waymo's approach of launching the service in the cities when it is easy first, and over time expanding to more troublesome climates is much more sensible than Tesla's "humans can do it, so AI should be able to, with just cameras".
> Waymo's approach of launching the service in the cities when it is easy first, and over time expanding to more troublesome climates is much more sensible Is there a fundamental answer to this question? Start with low-hanging fruit and then build up? Or begin with the most challenging bits before gliding forward? The risk with the former is you end up in a dead end. The risk with the latter, finding the hard problem…
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> Waymo's approach of launching the service in the cities when it is easy first, and over time expanding to more troublesome climates is much more sensible Is there a fundamental answer to this question? Start with low-hanging fruit and then build up? Or begin with the most challenging bits before gliding forward? The risk with the former is you end up in a dead end. The risk with the latter, finding the hard problem…
From a business perspective it's probably not even close. Start with the easiest + biggest. Scale matters here so you can't leave big easy markets there for the taking.
It's not like there aren't hard problems to solve self-driving a car in fair weather, that also have to be solved before you can drive in bad weather.
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in a similar line of reasoning, cars by humans are a much larger problem that's already here
I completely agree. And autonomous vehicles solve none of the issues of regular cars, except maybe injury rate. The rest is the same -- emissions, inefficiency, expense, noise, traffic congestion, unwalkable cities, and so on.
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Replacing the millions of professional drivers with low marginal cost software can both makes boat loads of money and make transportation cheaper.
But you're replacing low-paid drivers that supply their own cheap cars with very high marginal-cost cars and sensors (and low marginal cost software). Its hard to imagine them turning a profit from owning and operating a fleet of cars - it seems like a business model closer to Hertz than Uber, and neither are terribly profitable.
Hertz and Uber struggle because of competition, not business model. If Waymo is the only self driving player and hence lowest cost mode of transportation, they'll make a fortune. If there are several players, they won't.
This will be interesting to see if they can crack LA - drunk and overly aggressive drivers, crack addicts running around the streets, and vandalism. You can already see this "tragedy of the commons" type of behavior with the unusable public transport system (it's a nightmare to use the trains between Koreatown and DTLA, especially for women) and in the private sector with Lime and Bird scooters. Very exciting if it w…
Does that video exist?
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Then they get recorded and dealt with by the law just like burning any random parked car.
To be frank, especially for anyone who hasn't lived in LA, the LAPD doesn't do anything for the public unless it's something involving guns and/or gangs. It's not unlike how developers mark most bugs as "won't fix". I've seen active break-ins and robberies in LA, and called the police only to have nothing being done in those situations. While anecdotal, I'm afraid this is a really common experience that has only gott…
This is not an LA phenomenon.
> When we think about our next cities, Los Angeles jumps out,” said Waymo’s co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana. “LA is a remarkable, vibrant place – and Waymo’s experience leaves us best positioned to tackle its driving complexity. That's a funny way to say the next biggest place with 300 days of sun per year.
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in a similar line of reasoning, cars by humans are a much larger problem that's already here
I completely agree. And autonomous vehicles solve none of the issues of regular cars, except maybe injury rate. The rest is the same -- emissions, inefficiency, expense, noise, traffic congestion, unwalkable cities, and so on.
Once self-driving cars are common people will figure out that it's safe to jaywalk in front of them, and nobody minds inconveniencing a robot, so I expect jaywalking to rise substantially too.
A self-driving hire car isn't idle 23 hours a day like a normal car so that should solve some of the inefficiency and expense issues.
All I'm left with on your list is congestion, and that'll remain, even if the self-driving cars start communicating with each other to allow closer spacing. Making something cheaper and/or easier inevitably increases usage.