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TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

investor.tsmc.com

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Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#81
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think China could easily fix their demographics if they wanted to. They have sufficient control of their population that if they said "everyone of child bearing age must try for a child this year and next", they'd probably double their population within 2 years. The 'demographic problem' is only a problem because they don't see it as an issue worth fixing.

I think this is wildly off base. Lots of them don’t want to have kids. The government has many ways to influence the public. But I don’t think it’s true to say that they have so much control over their populace that they could do anything like double their population in 20 years, let alone 2. People in China are just people, right? Many of them don’t want to have kids. What’s the government gonna do? Of course, hypot…

> People in China are just people, right? Many of them don’t want to have kids. What’s the government gonna do?

See the Cultural Revolution and Great Famine etc for examples of what it can do. Basically anything.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#82
post #3

> Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4% this is what happens when you can convince your top customer to pay you 2.4x to gain that https://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/229139/a16-bionic...

Let's not forget about global chip shortages and limited production capacities. Apple is paying to be front in the queue as much as they are for the chips themselves -- as a shortage-induced revenue decline would be vastly more impactful on their market cap than paying extra on the BOM for key components

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#83
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure. Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power…

Give it a few years. The one child policy, even though it’s gone now, it really going to mess up population growth.

By how much? At best its going to be 25%, which is still around 1 billion people.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"nearly everyone has"? I doubt more than 30% owns their advanced hardware e.g hardware created after 2017

Arguably a lot of people might interact with servers that use their chips (and cpus and nvidia gpus), plus there’s game consoles which are fairly popular.

It's not about game consoles, it's about cell phones. According to some estimates, 83% of the world's population has a smartphone. TSMC makes a significant portion of the chips powering those phones. Currently TSMC has a significant performance lead over all the other fabs.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#85
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their stock is falling because of future demand issues coming up with the whole semiconductor industry. Just this week, expanded export bans to China were announced and are an uncertainty on how much volume will be impacted in the future, because no one knows what will get an exemption or not.

The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technol…

> The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technological infrastructure capability, and China is now in the lead - so the response is, stop trading with China on all things silicon?

"Force people to try to come up with alternatives rather than rely on that single external source that short-term thinking created" seems a lot smarter than you give it credit for.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#86

When the world population is ~ 8 billion people, thats only a little over $2 per person spent at TSMC in Q3. Which really doesn't seem like much for the company that makes the most expensive part of gadgets nearly everyone has.

"nearly everyone has"? I doubt more than 30% owns their advanced hardware e.g hardware created after 2017

1.5 billion cell phones were sold in 2018. This represents 20% of the world population, assuming a negligible number of people buy two phones in the same calendar year.

Between 1.4 and 1.5 billion cell phones were sold in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 (projected), representing roughly another 6 billion cell phones. That is, there is roughly one cell phone per person in the world "created after 2017."

Obviously, a significant number of people bought more than one cell phone in that time period; but, offsetting that, the average cellphone is sold more than once due to the used market. While it's hard to project this to actual estimate saturation of cell phones "created after 2017", it's very hard to imagine a case that the 6 billion phones from 2019 on don't represent at least another 10% of the population.

There is also advanced hardware besides cell phones.

Less than 30% of the world population owning hardware created after 2017 doesn't pass the sniff test.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#87
post #3

> Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4% this is what happens when you can convince your top customer to pay you 2.4x to gain that https://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/229139/a16-bionic...

i mean the wafers for N4 are smaller so the yields are smaller and in the end it costs more. Also Apple doesnt do small chips or chiplets so some silicon they make is really big. Big die = smaller yields.

I believe all of TSMC's modern processes use 300 mm wafers. Is this incorrect?

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#88
post #3

> Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4% this is what happens when you can convince your top customer to pay you 2.4x to gain that https://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/229139/a16-bionic...

Usain Bolt is barely twice as fast as me, but he get's paid a lot more than double what I do to run. No one said prices had to be linearly proportional to performance...

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technol…

You speak as if the security and strategic concerns of the state are shared by the businesses that exploit the state while simultaneously influencing policy. It seems naive to think that the state is always working in it's own interest when all of the money that flows into our political system is designed to keep the state from functioning efficiently or at all.

I mean these latest set of restrictions are all bad for US companies. This was an example of US strategic/security concerns just completely running over corporate interests.

Re: TSMC Reports Q3 Earnings [pdf]

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technol…

China just out subsidized all the competitors, so by removing them from the market, the market will realign and new production will come online.

Not if the fossil fuel sector has so much power over the US government that they can squelch renewable competition via control of funding for R&D and spending projects. Anyone who looks into actual DOE R&D budgets since Reagan will see this playing out in practice.

China notably has no domestic gas/oil to speak of, and coal has so many obvious drawbacks that they've decided to push money into renewable R&D as part of their long-term strategy.

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