71–80 of 119 posts
> Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4%, operating margin was 50.6%, and net profit margin was 45.8%. Still surprised how profitable TSMC is. Especially as this seems to be below the market expectations (their stock is still falling).
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I think China could easily fix their demographics if they wanted to. They have sufficient control of their population that if they said "everyone of child bearing age must try for a child this year and next", they'd probably double their population within 2 years. The 'demographic problem' is only a problem because they don't see it as an issue worth fixing.
Any developed country could fix its demographics problem with a stroke of a pen - provide housing to young family. We've studied this, n1 reason peolle dont have kids is housing. The housing crisis has done more damage to western economy than the black plague. > they'd probably double their population within 2 years. you are conveniently forgetting that children take 20 years before they can work??
Providing housing to young families will not make a meaningful dent to declining demographics in the affluent world. People do not want to have so many children (3-5 or more) and it's not due to lack of housing. That's a cultural change and no amount of housing is going to reverse it. And even in the financial scenario, the housing aspect is only one chunk of the huge cost of raising several children.
When the world population is ~ 8 billion people, thats only a little over $2 per person spent at TSMC in Q3. Which really doesn't seem like much for the company that makes the most expensive part of gadgets nearly everyone has.
"nearly everyone has"? I doubt more than 30% owns their advanced hardware e.g hardware created after 2017
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I agree. I was of the view that China could be the next super power and overtake the US. But two things changed my view:- 1. COVID and their response to it. China still does not have a good vaccine and they still rely on lockdowns. That speaks a lot to how backward China is in basic sciences. 2. The move to remove term limits for the president. History tells us that one person can’t be relied on to make good long ter…
China's covid response was extremely damaging to China, but thanks to the US and their allies response to Russia, China has received plenty of intermediary free money to add to their economy. Cheaper energy, and arbitration returns from Russian goods to western economies for a premium. Ultimately China will find a way to cope without the products from the west. Europe however cannot cope without the cheap goods from…
Russia's economy is trivial in size, as are their non-energy exports.
A $20-$30 gap in the price of oil via artificially cheap Russian oil isn't the difference between India's large economy (3x larger than Russia, nearly the size of Germany) growing at -3% vs growing at +6%.
We need to put the hammer down far harder on Russia than we have so far.
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China has reduced some of its holdings of treasuries (<10%), but still have a trillion dollars worth. They are diversifying, but they still hold a ton of USD.
I guess they can't dump it all at once, but the current US policy won't help.
Ignorant people used to joke that China owned the US because of their treasury position (despite the fact that Japan's holdings were roughly as large). Well that position has been massively diluted over the past decade and is now largely meaningless. The Fed can eat China's position with a snap of its finger.
It's to China's benefit to hold the position, at present.
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> A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. We'll see. Lots of people thought Japan would overtake the US as well, and that didn't exactly pan out. China has some real problems between the legacy of their one child policy and their current real estate investment crisis. It's cer…
China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure. Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power…
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Their stock is falling because of future demand issues coming up with the whole semiconductor industry. Just this week, expanded export bans to China were announced and are an uncertainty on how much volume will be impacted in the future, because no one knows what will get an exemption or not.
The U.S. position on the entire Chinese semiconductor industry is getting increasingly ridiculous. It's not just chips, since China is the one country that's developed efficient monocrystalline silicon ingot production at scale, and solar panels made with that material are far superior to anything made in the USA currently. The USA's financialized short-term thinking has resulted in a failure to develop basic technol…
> Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4%, operating margin was 50.6%, and net profit margin was 45.8%. Still surprised how profitable TSMC is. Especially as this seems to be below the market expectations (their stock is still falling).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> A large chunk of experts see China as the likely next world superpower. The USA, current world superpower, probably can't prevent that happening, but they can make moves to delay it. We'll see. Lots of people thought Japan would overtake the US as well, and that didn't exactly pan out. China has some real problems between the legacy of their one child policy and their current real estate investment crisis. It's cer…
China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure. Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Any developed country could fix its demographics problem with a stroke of a pen - provide housing to young family. We've studied this, n1 reason peolle dont have kids is housing. The housing crisis has done more damage to western economy than the black plague. > they'd probably double their population within 2 years. you are conveniently forgetting that children take 20 years before they can work??
There's nothing that needs solved. It's ideal to shrink the global population while boosting per capita quality of life. The focus should be on improving per capita, not on expanding the overall economic size or population numbers. Providing housing to young families will not make a meaningful dent to declining demographics in the affluent world. People do not want to have so many children (3-5 or more) and it's not…
Then why do we simultaneously import millions of workers each year to make up for the supposed shortage of natural population growth (caused by policy)?