Earlier quoted context omitted.
Investments doing so well these last 40 years is the unusual part. Vast majority of the gains in the stock market over its history happened from 1977-2007.
The FTSE 100 is almost at the same level as in 2014, those betting that the S&P 500 will always be different than the rest of the exchanges/indeces might be in for a nasty surprise.
Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down
221–228 of 228 posts
Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
Markets don't have a goal. They just don't care.
"Markets" don't, but the market makers do. And that is to take all your cash while making you think you are making sound decisions.
They make more when you trade often.
Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
"markets will most likely recover over the long term, historically speaking" tell that to the Nikkei index. At this point you'll have been waiting 40 years for the recovery. https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical...
Fair point, my comment is centered around the US markets, I should have clarified that.
Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
An article from 2015: > Well, maybe. My Fidelity contact has not heard of such a thing, nor has Morningstar's Fidelity Canada contact. Suffice it to say that none of these citations came linked to the original source. (Such is the Internet.) * https://www.morningstar.com/articles/964493/from-the-archive... Unless the citation has fidelity.com in the link (or an archive.org snapshot of said link), I'm calling urban le…
I mean, simple Google produced result I shared, which you might have easily cited to in your original request and added the clarification you just added, but you didn’t do that. Or strange thought, you could contact Fidelity and ask them yourself — and if it is urban legend, let them know, and suggest them survey their records and see if legend is true — since for sure mainstream media would cover it and given curren…
Yes, and that was an interview between Barry Ritholtz and James O'Shaughnessy of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management, and not someone from Fidelity. Here's O'Shaughnessy again on that anecdote:
> 1/That story was told to me by a former colleague which perhaps allowed me to lower my guard on it. When I went looking for it, I found nothing. Pure Urban Legend. Underlying the importance of seeing the source material. My passing it on in an interview gave it more life.
* https://twitter.com/jposhaughnessy/status/115517108366392524...
> Or strange thought, you could contact Fidelity and ask them yourself
Many, many, other people have already done that, and Fidelity has told them there is no such study, as the link I cited states:
> Well, maybe. My Fidelity contact has not heard of such a thing, nor has Morningstar's Fidelity Canada contact. Suffice it to say that none of these citations came linked to the original source. (Such is the Internet.)
* https://www.morningstar.com/articles/964493/from-the-archive...
> Mean time, no shortage of research on the topic:
I'm well aware of the advantages of passive investing and practice it myself (as my comment history in this thread will show). But if you're going to encourage people to do it perhaps use studies that actually exist.
Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down
#225Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
1) we're likely in a declining/sideways market for at least another year until inflation subsides Gonna be a lot longer than that, at least as far as inflation goes. Q3 2022 is the median date for retirement of the largest generation, the Boomers. When they retire they take their capital with them. Expect the cost of capital triple for at least the next decade.
> Q3 2022 is the median date for retirement of the largest generation, the Boomers. Just to nitpick: the largest generation is the millennials, not the boomers. https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-...
Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down
#227Re: Ask HN: How to deal with markets down turn? Feeling down
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unemployment really needs to be paired with the Labor Force Participation Rate. Unemployment is low, but LFPR is down as well. 10 years ago it hovered steadily around 63.5-64%. The pandemic crushed it, but we're still only back up to around 62.5%. That's a lot of people not working that simply aren't in the market anymore, unemployment would look a lot worse if they were included.
LFPR is above the level it was pre-pandemic. Immigration is the best way of driving up the LFPR, but that was essentially nil during the pandemic and is still way down. Combine that with the aging population, and a slight increase in LFPR over the last 3 years is much better than could be expected.