Be aware that: 1) we're likely in a declining/sideways market for at least another year until inflation subsides, possibly longer 2) the Fed has most of the control over the inflation/deflation levers (on demand side) 3) markets will most likely recover over the long term, historically speaking The Fed is purposefully reducing their asset holdings and increasing interest rates to slow down demand, which in theory sho…
I agree with most of this, but note that stock prices don't track real-world events as closely as you're suggesting. They're based on competing predictions of the future. The market will (or has already) hit bottom when the average prediction starts being less pessimistic, not when inflation actually subsides or the Fed actually lowers rates.
The defining feature of bear markets is not direction, but high volatility -- they look like a random walk without a clear upper or lower bound.