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Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

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Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#311

Post by Matticus_Rex »

mywittyname wrote: post #224
zeroonetwothree wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money supply has roughly doubled since 2020. So you are not correct. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

That big spike is literally just a change in the definition of M1/M2 money supply. Specifically, in May 2020, the Fed began including certain liquid investment accounts. So you can't compare pre-May 2020 figures with post-May 2020 figures because they are measuring different things and they aren't going to go back and retroactively fix the figures.

While he's wrong to say it "doubled," it has risen ~40% since 2020, and the graph he linked is M2 -- the spike in that graph is not due to definition change -- that's actual money supply expansion. You're thinking of the change to the definition of M1, which did cause a really huge spike that was misleading if you didn't understand the change. The converted figures that do adjust the definition in both periods do show this particular spike (as do graphs using only the pre-May 2020 definition).

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#312

Post by Matticus_Rex »

mywittyname wrote: post #163
Matticus_Rex wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a supply shortage in some areas... and there is price inflation as well. That's actually what you'd expect with a supply shortage that isn't very evenly distributed anyway, but when you add dramatic expansion of the money supply in a period of very low interest rates on top of that, you'd certainly expect to see dramatic price inflation to match, as we have. The idea that a supply shortage is causing all of…

The "expansion in the money supply" has been going on for 15 years. The supply issues started 2.5 years ago. The inflation started about 2 years ago. So only one of those factors is correlated with serious inflation. The explicit goal of expanding the money supply in 2009 was to drive inflation in order to combat deflation. It didn't work. We ended up with a decade+ long period of low/no inflation. Even today, the US…

The money supply has expanded as much since the monetary policy shifts of 2020 as it did between 2011 and those shifts, and inflation is a lagging indicator. You can't use "oh, we've expanded the money supply before and it hasn't caused inflation" to dismiss the idea that expanding the money supply at several times the speed is going to have a much more dramatic inflationary effect.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#313

Post by godelski »

rvbissell wrote: post #298
godelski wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuance matters. In this case people start saving but also EXPECT prices to increase. So prices are able to increase under that speculation. Sellers can then demand higher prices while demand decreases. [0] discusses self-fulfilling oil price increases due to speculation of oil price increases. This is more what I was pointing at but conveyed (extremely) poorly. There's also the matter that people treat econ 101 as fa…

I have no quarrel with your second paragraph. As to your first: if people expect prices to increase tomorrow, they don't save today; they spend today, to lock in value prior to inflation. And even if people actually did as you claim and saved funds today despite their expectations of higher prices tomorrow, guess what: seller's can't eat expectations. They need actual sales . And in your scenario, the people aren't b…

Well people do both. And different people do different things. I also think a big factor is the amount of inflation. Like the fed targets a 2-3% inflation because that encourages people to spend for exactly the reason you're talking about. Basic monetary theory. But inflation based recessions are a different story and people prepare for the shock. People will hold money because they also expect inflation to reduce and this be a temporary issue. If you expect prices to fall back down, then you should save instead of spending now.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#314

Post by fundad »

slg wrote: post #78
citilife wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This could be considered a good thing. Lower wages, lower job mobility, asset deflation, consumable inflation -- YAY! ...

It is still wild to me that this is the approach we are taking, things are getting too expensive so let's shrink the economy. That can't be the best solution. We are throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

The interest rate hikes serve to squash the glimmer of worker power that has the ownership class so worried.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#315

Post by cma »

boole1854 wrote: post #212
cma wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now that the government itself is providing that outlet Inflation adjusted nothing the government is selling is earning other than I-bonds (individual yearly buy limit of $15K). With Trump's energy output restriction deal with Saudi and others expiring inflation may slow, but the situation of gas in Europe over the winter seems poised to keep it up (CPI doesn't include energy directly, but it feeds back in).

> Inflation adjusted nothing the government is selling is earning other than I-bonds (individual yearly buy limit of $15K). Inflation-indexed long term US treasuries are now earning positive rates of interest. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII30 -- it's not necessarily a high rate (currently 1.74% after inflation with a 30-year term), but when you have millions or billions to invest, it's certainly not noth…

You're right about CPI and core CPI, and I didn't realize TIPS went that positive recently. Since the inflation adjustment gains are taxed I still don't know that you could come out preserving wealth at current inflation rates, unless it is held in a completely tax free account like a Roth.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#316

Post by boulos »

minimaxir wrote: post #209
boulos wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is part of why I prefer to use LIKE directly when the thing I'm doing isn't actually a regexp. Then again, it's equally easy to screw up the %, but I feel it's maybe more visible (due to the less common characters). [My primary reason is clarity for the reader, so they don't have to attempt to parse the potential regexp]. More pernicious than ? is . though. Not that it matters in your case, but a lot of matches…

You have more experience in this area, but REGEXP_CONTAINS() seems faster than LIKE for bigger datasets IMO. Although in my work I tend to use REGEXP_CONTAINS() as an efficient multifilter for different inputs, which speeds things up too.

Hmm. I'm totally going to do some benchmarking tomorrow...

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#317

Post by omegaworks »

boole1854 wrote: post #208
omegaworks wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto itself, or at least the bubble, was an unintended byproduct of low interest rates and lax securities enforcement. The low interest environment is intended to spurn the monied rich into investing in productive businesses, but "innovators" instead invented crypto assets and lauded them as the second coming of Mansa Musa, siphoning nearly a trillion dollars out of the productive economy. Clever crypto "innovators…

> siphoning nearly a trillion dollars out of the productive economy Not exactly correct. While the global crypto market cap is currently around a trillion dollars (and was higher in the recent past), this is vastly different than it being the case that a trillion dollars was invested in crypto (i.e., "siphoned out" of the rest of the economy). In fact, according to one estimate, in 2021 global crypto investment was $…

Market cap also quantifies the value of the labor that has gone into developing the infrastructure that supports these networks. Had that labor been allocated differently, that trillion dollars of value might be seen in parts of the economy responsible for the production of goods that are now becoming expensive.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#318

Post by kristopolous »

harryvederci wrote: post #23

I don't know the intention of the author, but I see like a lot of "Look, it's happening! The economy is going down!" posts pop up these days. Which may be true, but it can also be a self-fulfilling profecy if everyone is doing that on all platforms. Which would be a shame. I'm not saying HN and other platforms should censor (/ take action) either. It's just a thought I have on this subject, and I don't know if there…

times like those are the greatest opportunities for new things.
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