Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months • Hacker News Board

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#281

Post by MisterSandman » Tue, Oct 04, 2022, 11:36 PM UTC

bee_rider wrote: post #88

ed_elliott_asc wrote: post #51

The jobs market goes in cycles, sometimes there are less roles, sometimes there are more roles. Don't fret about the state of the market - you can't do anything and it is irrelevant. Focus on making sure your skills are up to date and you network and put yourself in the best position. If there are a hundred less roles, it doesn't matter if you are in the top 10%, even the top 50% - just be better than average and you…

Actually, what's going on is the job market is waiting to collapse until I've just about finished my thesis. As soon as I really need a job, we're doomed. The problem is, the universe needs to fill in the backstory, so my unexpected delays have messed up it's ability to build the narrative. On the bright side, my laggardly pace may have fended things off until after the midterms. I'll let you all know when I've sched…

As someone graduating in 2024, honestly feels the same way.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#282

Post by godelski » Tue, Oct 04, 2022, 11:40 PM UTC

rvbissell wrote: post #77

godelski wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which may be true, but it can also be a self-fulfilling prophecy if everyone is doing that on all platforms. Which would be a shame. This also happens with inflation. It is probably because people start acting differently. The hypothesis is that if people are preparing for a recession then demand goes down, which pushes prices up, which is identical to inflation. Obviously this model is far too simplistic but it is…

Why do you say that softening demand will cause prices to go up? That sounds contrary to every economics lesson I've ever had.

Nuance matters. In this case people start saving but also EXPECT prices to increase. So prices are able to increase under that speculation. Sellers can then demand higher prices while demand decreases. [0] discusses self-fulfilling oil price increases due to speculation of oil price increases. This is more what I was pointing at but conveyed (extremely) poorly.

There's also the matter that people treat econ 101 as facts but the truth of the matter is economics is really fuzzy and there are no hard rules and there are always (ALWAYS) exceptions. Even what I said can happen or can not. I was just pointing out that it ,,can'' happen. It's all very statistical. But you may notice that the real world very much does not follow anywhere near the econ 101 models. It's like doing physics where everything is a spherical cow. Truth of the matter is that if we actually understood economics we wouldn't run into situations like this. It isn't like economies benefit from major downturns and inflation. It'd be like knowingly shooting yourself in the foot. Over and over again.

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/033115/how-does-law...

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#283

Post by tootie » Tue, Oct 04, 2022, 11:43 PM UTC

giantg2 wrote: post #90

harryvederci wrote: post #23

I don't know the intention of the author, but I see like a lot of "Look, it's happening! The economy is going down!" posts pop up these days. Which may be true, but it can also be a self-fulfilling profecy if everyone is doing that on all platforms. Which would be a shame. I'm not saying HN and other platforms should censor (/ take action) either. It's just a thought I have on this subject, and I don't know if there…

"Look, it's happening! The economy is going down!" I agree this can be a self fulfilling prophecy. A lot of larger tech companies were announcing hiring freezes or restructuring months ago to get ahead of the downturn. But I also think we could restate the quote above in ways that are actually true. For example, a lot of these posts are startups and monetary policy is slowing or shrinking the money available for VC.…

Most recessions are self-fulfilling. Outside of true exogenous disruptions (ie a pandemic or a war) recessions are largely driven by collective bad vibes creating a vicious cycle. In most cases, we could probably power through dips in consumer spending or specific industries shrinking or fuel prices rising but in reality the bad feelings trickle outward until they affect everyone very broadly. Then when we've had enough, things recover. Keynes called it Animal Spirits.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#284

Post by lkrubner » Tue, Oct 04, 2022, 11:46 PM UTC

willcipriano wrote: post #276

lkrubner wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That has never been the definition of a recession. All recessions are declared by NBER and NBER has always used a large number of metrics in their calculations. You can see the official list of "peak months" and "trough months" here, and you'll note they don't line up cleanly with 2 quarters of negative growth: https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansi...

How did the ancient Greeks and Romans have recessions without NBER's guidance?

The ancient Greeks did not define a recession as two quarters of negative growth— that has never been the definition of a recession, even if you go back several thousand years.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#285

Post by willcipriano » Tue, Oct 04, 2022, 11:53 PM UTC

lkrubner wrote: post #284

willcipriano wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did the ancient Greeks and Romans have recessions without NBER's guidance?

The ancient Greeks did not define a recession as two quarters of negative growth— that has never been the definition of a recession, even if you go back several thousand years.

So how do we know they had a recession? If the definition its only a recession if NBER says so you would have to assert that they did not. Have historians have been disseminating Russian disinformation for centuries?

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#286

Post by 1_1xdev » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 12:06 AM UTC

pb7 wrote: post #241

mountaineer wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leading indicator of the (overall) tech job market is a better way to put it. The job postings in The Who Is Hiring? threads are a small sliver of the overall industry.

It's a fine sample though.

I’m not sure it’s representative. It has a higher proportion of startups and a lower proportion of established non-tech companies who still often make tech hires

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#287

Post by tsunamifury » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 12:20 AM UTC

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #198

mywittyname wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "expansion in the money supply" has been going on for 15 years. The supply issues started 2.5 years ago. The inflation started about 2 years ago. So only one of those factors is correlated with serious inflation. The explicit goal of expanding the money supply in 2009 was to drive inflation in order to combat deflation. It didn't work. We ended up with a decade+ long period of low/no inflation. Even today, the US…

Money supply has roughly doubled since 2020. So you are not correct. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Be a little more humble correcting people when you completely are wrong. M1 -> m2 conversion.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#288

Post by kortilla » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 12:27 AM UTC

brookside wrote: post #174

robertk wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/best-time-to-start-a-busine... “ The Best Time To Start A Business Is During A Downturn”

Financial Samurai strikes me as sadistic. His post about Mr. Money Mustache's divorce is pretty horrible example of soulless SEO headings kicking a rival blogger when down https://www.financialsamurai.com/mmm-divorce/

Wow, it takes a grade A piece of shit to speculate about someone’s divorce.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#289

Post by muzani » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 12:32 AM UTC

killingtime74 wrote: post #25

Has anyone actually gotten much success in either direction (hirer/candidate) from these posts?

I wouldn't say full success as I didn't actually get a job, but I got deep into interviews that could have led to very good jobs. The progress vs effort ratio is by far the best of any channel.

Re: Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months

#290

Post by pcorsaro » Wed, Oct 05, 2022, 12:41 AM UTC

defterGoose wrote: post #277

pcorsaro wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I run a small business that sells supplies to restaurants and other small businesses. Everyone I deal with is busier than they've ever been with less help than they've ever had. Hardly anyone has been able to take a vacation for 3 years now. There's a multitude of things going on that are drastically different than 10 or 20 years ago. There's a schism being created in this world with the work from home crowd being on…

>There's a schism being created in this world with the work from home crowd being one side, and the warehouse/foodservice crowd on the other side. Totally agree, and it's good to know that anyone besides myself sees it. For me personally, I'm educated and know I have the skills to be on that first side of the divide, but it makes me feel very nervous/sad, because I know a lot of the stuff going on at the lower-wage e…

> I complain about everyone expecting a tip on their POS terminals and prices constantly rising, but in the spirit of my above point, they probably deserve it.

This is also a huge complaint of mine in specific situations. If I go to an NBA game or concert, buy a beer for $12, and the POS has a tip thing, I want to scream. I want to scream at the vending group to just pay the people more money. The profit margin on the beer is insane, give your workers some of the money rather than try to pass the buck on to the consumer you’re already gouging.