Live data from Hacker News

Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

yarn.pranshum.com

491–500 of 550 posts

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#491
post #230
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but that’s not the whole picture… in 1962 the ford truck was $2000 now is around 40,000 so while a new one is better you still have to earn 2x as much to get the most basic one available

When I go to ford.com and look at their basic truck, the 2023 Maverick, I see "starting at $22,195". So if a 1962 truck truly sold for $2000, the inflation seems to account for entirely the price increase. And I'm pretty sure everyone will agree a 2023 Maverick is superior to a 1962 F-100 in every conceivable aspect. Housing and healthcare are better examples of goods or services whose prices have increased faster th…

I’d prefer a brand new 62 f-150 to a 2023 maverick.

But yeah housing is a better example. We really fucked that one up didn’t we?

Healthcare is hard because we have so many better technologies, but worse outcomes so the price increase is arguably not worth it. Maybe this one is like the truck. Lotta new technology, at the end of the day not better.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars don’t break down as much and last much longer. A 20 year old car nowadays can still be perfectly usable. So in effectively they did get cheaper, just buy used (at least that was the case until 2020..)

I own a 21 year old car that still drives great. It's amazing honestly.

Same, also one that is 40 and one that is 60. There hasn’t really been an increase in reliability over time. The difference between manufacturers has always been the defining factor. Simply compare a new Nissan to a new Toyota and you’ll see what I mean. Project out resale value 10 years and you’ll see a dramatic drop in value for the less reliable one. It was cheaper to manufacture, used lower quality parts and engineering and the result is wildly different reliability.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So? The argument is that inflation always happens when there is fiat printing. We printed a shitload of dollars between 2000-2020, yet inflation was low throughout that period. So the explanation is clearly insufficient.

The price of my lunch went from ~$8 to ~$18 during this period, it is noticeable. Had a look at the stock or real-estate markets?

That would make me brown bag a sandwich.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#494
post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you noticed that every investment instrument saw its price go up, and up, no stop, until it had no relation to how much return it would get you, or how much money the people that wanted it for using in a secondary market could spend, and then it kept going up the same way for 2 more decades? Yep, that's inflation too. But since the money was mostly circulating there, and the official measurements of inflation do…

Stocks/real estate are mostly owned by richer people (and 401ks). There was plenty of inflation in luxury goods. Watches, private jets, art. Prices went through the roof. Covid boom put money into the hands of regular people, and that -- combined with a supply shock -- made all the difference.

Yes, but it's not easy to understand how wealth can be so concentrated on the hands of the rich that it doesn't impact the "regular people economy".

Rich people buy services, and service providers are regular people. Some of the money always has to disperse, so the impact can only be neutral if there is something with similar intensity concentrating it back.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, the thing the Fed is doing by raising rates is increasing unemployment but trying to not come right out and say it. Increasing unemployment decreases demand and therefore prices. A hard recession is how this is going to end IMO.

> Increasing unemployment decreases demand and therefore prices. said differently (and maybe cynically): the only way to reduce prices is to make people jobless and potentially homeless, destroying families and potentially peoples lives in the process... maybe i am crazy, but this seems like a really bad way to run an economy?

You’re not crazy and it is bad but that’s how it operates. At the macro scale, the people making these decisions are just looking at percentages on a spreadsheet and turning knobs to get them where they want them.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#496
post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is dumb. That's not an insult -- I'm not calling you dumb, but just your argument. No worries, I'm here to discuss and learn things, so happy about your reply! > 1) Banks are FDIC-insured, so unless the federal government goes under, my money can't be lost. If the US disappears, so does the dollar. Yes, but there is still the chance of a "haircut" or similar. At this scale, rules can be bend. But my response w…

> No worries, I'm here to discuss and learn things, so happy about your reply! Thank you! I enjoy discussions with folks like you. > Maybe for the first time. If we're having regular bank failures, we're going to enter "failed state" status. Can you name any nation which regular bank failures which isn't a hellhole? People don't learn from once-in-a-lifetime events. It's also not what I want people to learn. Systems…

> Can you name any nation which regular bank failures which isn't a hellhole?

That's a bit unfair, because there is no country (yet) where there is a system similar to what I proposed. If there were, then maybe it would be pretty normal and putting money on the bank that yields interest will just be seen and regulated as investing into stocks nowadays.

> It's also not what I want people to learn. Systems like this ought to work well enough in a well-governed country that ordinary individuals don't need to think about it.

To me it feels like you are trying to push away a responsibility that is impossible to push away. (sorry for me bad English)

What I mean is, once someone gives money to the bank and the bank _uses_ it instead of storing it (e.g. for a loan/credit) then there _is_ a risk that the money will be lost.

So if you want banks to be failsafe in the sense that it is legally guaranteed that you can never lose your money (currently that's not the case right) then banks should be fully government controlled or at least so tightly regulated that they are very very different from a regular business. I mean, banks are already highly regulated, but not nearly enough in my opinion. If the bank can't lose/go bankcrup, then it also shouldn't win, so no profit or highly regulated profit.

EDIT: I forgot to say that if the state is essentially insurance for the bank, it should charge for that service just like a normal insurance company would.

> Why? All evidence suggests the contrary: (...)

None of the points contradicts what I said.

But look: even in a communal society YOU pick your friends, no one else. And if there are two kinds of foods, one tasty, cheap and unhealthy und one so-so, kinda expensive but healthy, would YOU trust the advertisements which one to pick?

Even with a doctor: sure, it's great to have competent doctors. But it's a fact that there are better and worse doctors. So if health is important to you, YOU have to pick the right doctor. If you rely on someone else to do so, you are essentially putting your life in their hands. While anyone can decide to do that, I just don't think that it's a good idea.

The problem with your nice example life is that once things go southwards (and eventually they always do) then you can't deal with it. I prefer a slightly less optimal system that has less potential to go really bad, even if average quality of life is a bit lower.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#497
post #439
post #417

The most dangerous thing that can happen to an advanced economy is credit markets grinding to a halt. It was the panic of 1907 that created the federal reserve in the first place. Over the ensuing decades there was a very awkward path to eventually figuring out that at the moments where a complete halt to credit markets looks imminent, the fed should step in and release the jam. What we’ve learned is that just the kn…

I'm kind of inclined to agree. We want to avoid structural damage: Lost jobs, bankrupt businesses, lost mortgages, and so on. Structural damage leads to loss of real productivity, and real harm to people's lives. The only way I knew to get through COVID shutdowns was to devalue currency by about as much as we've done. I didn't mind the short-term money printing, and I expected inflation to result. The inflation is pa…

> We want to avoid structural damage: Lost jobs, bankrupt businesses

Completely incorrect. If the jobs and businesses in question existed only due to speculative excess, they shouldn't exist. Easy money generates what David Graeber would call "Bullshit Jobs", that contribute anywhere from zero to negative real value production.

We want these businesses liquidated and the employees out on the street, to pursue work that actually contributes to society.

The trick is to somehow limit the collateral damage to businesses that do produce real value. I don't think that's a problem that's been solved.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't match my experiences; IME cars do last longer now. I have owned and spent substantial time driving a 1978 Buick Regal and a 1968 Westphalia VW van. I don't think that you're gonna see 200K miles out of either of those vehicles. The Buick had about 120K on it and was clearly on its last legs. It's likely been scrapped. The VW only runs because I sold it to a mechanical engineer who wanted to have a projec…

Shout out to Toyota making 200k miles the new 100k. The Toyotas I have owned have been over 150k with very little issue.

Non salt state? Pre 2005 Toyotas had serious corrosion issues in salt road conditions

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#499

As a brazilian, history teaches that inflation is a pain in the ass. I lived in hyperinflation when I was a kid. I rememore that my parents would receive and run to the market in the same day, and buy everything in bulk, because next day, their money would be worth half. Markets would tag products once or twice a day. I remember buying an X-men comic that was worth something like 1000 BRC. Monthly inflation would be…

It's something of a pity that hyper-inflation, and inflation, share more-or-less the same name. Hyper-inflation is bad, and ultimately makes local-money such a poor store of value as to make it useless. People will revert to non-money approaches to trade, or use a different currency for money. So yeah hyper-inflation is really bad, and (I suspect) what most Americans think of when the word "inflation" is used. By con…

Inlflation is bad. Specially because is a "tax" that affects the poorest population, that this days the origin is not rare, because the state prints money like crazy, to achieve its goals in the short term.

Re: Inflation is at a 40 year high. What can history teach us?

#500
post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not even close.

What were the biggest? The MLK riots? How does one measure these things precisely anyway?

There are tons of bigger ones [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watts_riots], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Chicago_riots], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_Detroit_riot] hell even [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsa_race_massacre]

Last 2 years have been nothing, except for the ‘implications for democracy’ anyway.

Pick any metric - deaths, injuries, property damage, etc.

Post reply on HN