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Nordstream: An Accident?

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Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#21

Post by ravi-delia »

Ekaros wrote: post #11
rfrey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, when war is raging and thousands are dying gruesome deaths, it's reasonable to consider malice.

And who actually gains from this in the long run... Certainly not Germany or Russia... Should make it pretty clear. It could be UK as tradition of breaking down Europe, but they are having enough issues that the timing is entirely wrong... I don't think China cares, so maybe Arabs, but I doubt. Only really leaves USA and we know what they have historically been up to.

Poland benefits but doesn't have the operational capacity. US can't really expect to sell much gas to Europe regardless, so if it was then it would be for anti-Russia reasons, which seems like a stretch. Objectively the funniest possiblity is that some cargo ship dragged it's anchor across miles of ocean and a captain is very very worried right now

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#22

Post by rfrey »

Ekaros wrote: post #11
rfrey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, when war is raging and thousands are dying gruesome deaths, it's reasonable to consider malice.

And who actually gains from this in the long run... Certainly not Germany or Russia... Should make it pretty clear. It could be UK as tradition of breaking down Europe, but they are having enough issues that the timing is entirely wrong... I don't think China cares, so maybe Arabs, but I doubt. Only really leaves USA and we know what they have historically been up to.

There is exactly one imperialist aggressor in this conflict, and it isn't the US.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#24

Post by namaria »

m000 wrote: post #15

> No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart. This is only true if the operation was conducted in hostile waters. Just saying.

Assuming covert ops follow a pattern is just naive

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#26

Post by MichaelCollins »

Ekaros wrote: post #11
rfrey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, when war is raging and thousands are dying gruesome deaths, it's reasonable to consider malice.

And who actually gains from this in the long run... Certainly not Germany or Russia... Should make it pretty clear. It could be UK as tradition of breaking down Europe, but they are having enough issues that the timing is entirely wrong... I don't think China cares, so maybe Arabs, but I doubt. Only really leaves USA and we know what they have historically been up to.

US / UK interests are well enough aligned that if one had a motive, the other might have done it for them as a favor in return for some other unknown favor. And whatever issues the UK is having now, it would not have precluded doing something as easy as this.

The UK is not my first or even second suspicion, but it could have been them.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#27

Post by rmind »

So far the most plausible theory is that Russia sabotaged the pipelines for two reasons [1]: 1) to claim force majeure and avoid massive penalties Gazprom would have to pay for the breach of contract (we are talking billions here; now they just blame the West and good luck proving in courts who actually did it); 2) to further blackmail and coerce the European nations (particularly Germany and Italy) who depend on Russian gas to stop supporting Ukraine.

As for explosions, they were recorded by the seismologist in Sweden and Denmark who are quite convinced it was due to a deliberate action: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gas-baltic-pipelines-leaks/32...

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2022/09/29/russian-s...

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#28

Post by howmayiannoyyou »

seydor wrote: post #7

To be honest, people dont seem to care too much who did it. It was russia: what are they gonna do, sanction them? It was the US: what are russians gonna do, go to war with the west? Whoever did this, they solved a Godrian knot. Imagine going into winter with one pipeline being the lifeline of europe. [My conspiracy theory: this was a arranged via secret negotiations between US and Russia. They want an end to the war…

That was never a possible outcome. Pipelines transiting Belarus and Ukraine remain operational and AFAIK in-service.

Who did it does matter. If Russia didn't self-sabotage they may feel some obligation to retaliate proportionally against someone else's energy infrastructure.

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#29

Post by namaria »

nix23 wrote: post #16
namaria wrote: post #8

Unqualified opinions are cheap. This random internet guy thinks sabotage is unlikely on the Nord Stream incident based on what is published on news websites? This has a weight of exactly zero.

The weight of the random-press aka "we don't know it, but the CIA already told us that could happen in the future, and therefore it must be true and it was russia" sound's like a big minus weight.

Saying we shouldn't take chatter at face value cuts both ways

Re: Nordstream: An Accident?

#30

Post by m000 »

RajT88 wrote: post #13
namaria wrote: post #8

Unqualified opinions are cheap. This random internet guy thinks sabotage is unlikely on the Nord Stream incident based on what is published on news websites? This has a weight of exactly zero.

The old adage, "Opinions are like assholes; everyone's got one" comes to mind.

And a newer adage: "Do not trust web posts written in colored bold-italic."
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