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Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

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Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#251

Post by mhh__ »

ktfelt wrote: post #138
rendall wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't worry. It wasn't the US. Not really our style. Sure, the CIA pulls dirty tricks, but those are quiet, in-the-shadows skullduggery where no one's paying attention. CIA doesn't do big and loud where other Americans can see it. Plus, motivations are wrong. The US catastrophically ends European energy dependence on Russia so that... it can compete with the Middle East and Russia and Canada on a more equal footing?…

There is Stuxnet and its predecessor, which blew up a pipeline! https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r... The U.S. motivation is that it has tried to shut down energy trades between the Soviet Union/Russia and Germany for more than 50 years.

Stuxnet isn't a great example precisely because they never dropped any bombs even though they could've arguably gotten away with it.

It's worth keeping in mind that the pipeline was also pretty much dormant anyway, the official nord stream data has it that flow collapsed around june, down to exactly 0 (by their books, there was still pressure in the pipe) kWh per day by September.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#252

Post by mhh__ »

cloutchaser wrote: post #183
rendall wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "the smoking gun" That's not a smoking gun.

Here's some helicopters flying over the exact explosion locations on sept 2nd: https://twitter.com/BNNBreaking/status/1574804363280719876

With transponders on?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#253

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

rendall wrote: post #128
captainmuon wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just hope it wasn't the US. That would be a devastating breach of trust for Germany and would backfire badly if it came out. I'm rooting for the Danish anarchists. You basically just need underwater explosives and a boat. You hang the explosives on a long rope, throw it over board like an anchor, and drag it into the pipeline. When you hit the pipeline, you detonate the explosives.

Don't worry. It wasn't the US. Not really our style. Sure, the CIA pulls dirty tricks, but those are quiet, in-the-shadows skullduggery where no one's paying attention. CIA doesn't do big and loud where other Americans can see it. Plus, motivations are wrong. The US catastrophically ends European energy dependence on Russia so that... it can compete with the Middle East and Russia and Canada on a more equal footing?…

Dude...

Prez Biden said the U.S. will stop it.

Victoria Nuland said the same.

There was Baltops 22, which just happened to 'practice' dearming underwater mines, as mentioned in local media.

Also mentioned in local media, the last three ships of the U.S. Navy passed by there just a week before the explosions,

with one especially suited for such operations.

Also one U.S. Navy Helo flying and circling exactly above the areas of the explosions, as shown by several tracking sites.

Apply some 'Occams razor'...

edit: Eyeroll

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#254

Post by sidibe »

tehbeard wrote: post #199
londons_explore wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they'd blown up their own assets, they would blame the west for it anyway no?

The thinking for them doing it themselves is this is more a subtle threat like their polonium and novichok poisonings, but with less immediately political backlash (i.e. No article 5 triggered) A "we have the capability to do this... lots of other pipes out there.... Have a pleasant day" sort of message.

There's other reasons Russia could have done it too. Drive a wedge between Germany and a country that would have a more obvious reason of hating the pipeline like US or Poland, make sure rapid return of relations and trade is harder to dissuade inner circle from toppling Putin or pressuring him to back down, etc.

We still have no idea, no top officials have made any accusations or presented any evidence, and just guessing from motives seems like a crapshoot. What we do know is one country is on an unhinged escalatory path, they're my very tentative guess without knowing exactly why they'd do it.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#255

Post by tazjin »

DangerousPie wrote: post #170
tazjin wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is the only actor that makes any sense to me, especially after Blinken's statement yesterday (~ "it was in nobody's interest, but would you look at the benefits!"). Combine that with the US naval activity in the exact area around the time, and also the "anti"-mine "drills" they did there earlier this year. The US knows that none of their vassals will ever openly accuse them, and for the Western media it was Ru…

Sabotaging their allies' key infrastructure would be an absolutely crazy amount of risk for the US. Even if they think there is a 99% chance they'd not get caught, that is a 1% chance of completely destroying relations their with Germany, Scandinavia, the EU, and probably the entire world. And all of that risk for the very marginal benefit of disabling some pipelines that weren't going to be used anytime soon any way…

They already know that major breaches of trust with Germany etc. have no effect. Why care now?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#256

Post by tazjin »

quonn wrote: post #228
tazjin wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is the only actor that makes any sense to me, especially after Blinken's statement yesterday (~ "it was in nobody's interest, but would you look at the benefits!"). Combine that with the US naval activity in the exact area around the time, and also the "anti"-mine "drills" they did there earlier this year. The US knows that none of their vassals will ever openly accuse them, and for the Western media it was Ru…

Calling Germany a vassal of the US is more than questionable. I think you also underestimate the EU, as many still do. The US doesn‘t deal with individual states anymore.

It's funny to see how our individual comments rank during EU/US daylight hours respectively.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#257

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

mhh__ wrote: post #252
cloutchaser wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's some helicopters flying over the exact explosion locations on sept 2nd: https://twitter.com/BNNBreaking/status/1574804363280719876

With transponders on?

Of course, to send a message, trans(over) the pond(atlantic).

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#258

Post by Seb-C »

londons_explore wrote: post #124
piaste wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

If they'd blown up their own assets, they would blame the west for it anyway no?

The troll farms have been very quick to start accusing the 'evil USA acting against the EU interests'...

Given that their strategy have been for decades to try to sow discord in the west, EU and NATO, I would not be surprised if it was another idea towards this goal.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#259

Post by Seb-C »

maratc wrote: post #186
piaste wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

But if the Russians were screaming bloody murder, this would no doubt be used to accuse them. So: Russians screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it. Russians aren't screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it.

That's a very well expected and deserved consequence of being pathological liars.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#260

Post by rendall »

laverya wrote: post #233
rendall wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone downstream suggested dragging explosives on a rope, detonating when they hit the pipeline. Wouldn't even need to stop.

Drag explosives on a rope, but don't blow it up when it hits the pipeline - instead have it drop when that happens, and then detonate a week or more later. Vessel positions are tracked and recorded after all.

Excellent counter to the idea that it must have been a coordinated effort with a sophisticated, well-funded adversary using submarines, and therefore Russia.
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