Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding • Hacker News Board

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#131

Post by ZeroGravitas » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:36 AM UTC

piaste wrote: post #108

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

I had the exact opposite reaction, i.e. that the sudden concerted effort to suggest Biden had said he was going to do this seemed so forced and fake to me, that it immediately made me think Russia would be the culprit.

But I guess that kind of propaganda generation is semi-uncontrollable and just happens, with whatever seems to work bubbling up as successful (literal) memes replicating.

And there's probably similar people throwing stuff against the wall about why it was Russia until they find something with enough versimilitude that it sticks in the mind.

It also made me revisit the recent book "how to blow up a pipeline" as I had the same question when I heard that title. How can you justify the short term ecological damage against the long term. I assume it's possible, I just hadn't read an in depth argument on it. Interesting to read it and see if the author has been asked to comment yet.

edit, seems they have a film out, so now publicity stunt is a plausible theory:

https://boundingintocomics.com/2022/09/26/how-to-blow-up-a-p...

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#132

Post by rendall » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:36 AM UTC

londons_explore wrote: post #126

Findecanor wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The three explosion sites are at depths of 70 - 80 meters. That would require a trained diver with professional equipment, or an underwater drone. Not that professional divers don't go deeper. But a recreational scuba diver, with readily available gear would dive to max half that depth.

Could the explosives have been lowered on a rope from a boat with no diver?

Or just dropped, like a depth charge.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#133

Post by exDM69 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:40 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #130

exDM69 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> assuming all of these nations record the real-time location of every fishing boat, dinghy, yacht and tug-boat; and can play it back and analyze all of the data This is a pretty safe assumption to make. The relevent authorities have this data and are certainly poring through it as we speak. > Your next go-to idea for the failure would be Russia or the US? Don't put words in my mouth. I did not allude to anyone in pa…

Ok, fair point. I agree that the various coast guards are extremely competent and coordinated, and are poring over the data that they have now. I disagree that capture is inevitable unless submarine.

Capture of the individuals behind it? Perhaps not. Identifying the vessel(s) supporting the sabotage operation? Much more likely.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#134

Post by Cthulhu_ » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:40 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I mean the smoking gun here is a statement from Biden back in February that they will take steps to stop it.

Official statement: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...

> As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate.

Interview quotes:

> "If Russia invades... again, then there will be longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." > When asked how he would do that, he responded, "I promise you we will be able to do it."

Dunno if they intended to "stop" Nord Stream 1 as well, but even with Russia messing with it and frequently stopping it, it was still a huge source of income for Russia thanks to exorbitant gas prices.

Now this is pure theory / speculation on my part, but, now that Europe has filled up their gas storage and has rapidly built new coastline LNG plants to accept shipments of LNG from the US, their dependence on Russian gas has dropped fast.

I can see some motivations why the US would have an interest in cutting it off. One, force stop the flow of money to Russia. I mean they could have used political means or financial incentives too, so it seems weird they would bomb infrastructure of their allies in their allies' national waters instead.

But two is to increase European dependence on American LNG shipments, which are currently highly profitable. I'm sure we'll see a big correction in gas prices this winter, depending on the weather, Nord Stream 1/2 or no though. Nothing as sustainable as the decades of Russian gas flowing into Europe.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#135

Post by AndrewThrowaway » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:41 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I think these are good points but the main shortcoming of all the theories about Russia is that we still treat (or want to) Russia as a rational actor.

I remember just before the war I would bid everything that Russia would in no way start the war. It just didn't make any rational sense. Who in sound mind would think to do it knowing that all the West [might/would] unite against you.

However rationality is being lost in personal agendas and Mafioso thinking of some sorts.

Now we see that after any Russian loss, be it a warship or loss of territory Russia responds with some pity attack against civilians. For example wasting expensive missiles to blow out a few floors of some high rise residential building. It is just hard to understand by rational western thinking.

However growing up in post-soviet country this kind of thinking is prominent amongst post-soviet mafias and similar sorts of groups - "if I can't have it nobody will". It is some kind of childish, failure to launch thing. "If I lost football match I will destroy the ball and that will show everybody". People grow out of it, thugs become thugs exactly for this reason - failure to grow up, lack of empathy because of family problems and etc.

Moreover you can see this in all the Russian army from the very top to the very bottom. What self respecting army would terrorize civilians after any push back. "We are retreating but we will put grenades under every pillow in every house in this village. That will show them". If this kind of thinking is prominent among all the population, all the army and etc. it starts to make more sense.

A simple "If we can't profit out of it we will blow it up and then you will know" starts to make sense.

Then you have "we can frame this on USA/Ukraine" because everybody knows "it is not in our interest".

Then you have Putin's interest - pipeline can become very profitable thing for the oligarch who gets rid of Putin and makes peace with the West. So it becomes a personal danger to Putin.

So it really could be Russia being Russia and Russian elite trying to "stay relevant" by their own (what west would call) crazy thinking.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#136

Post by rich_sasha » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:41 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I think you somewhat underestimate the difficulty of blowing this up. You have to find it first. Diving to 80 metres is _not_ child's play! Then locating the pipe with possibly poor visibility. Finally it's a big chunk of metal and concrete, you'd need the kind of explosives you can't just buy at your local corner store. I'd imagine Baltic traffic is well monitored, especially now, so if you don't want to be caught, or identified post factum, parking your fishing vessel for hours on the spot won't cut it.

That said it is well within any Baltic state's or NATO country's "easy zone".

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#137

Post by rendall » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:42 AM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #114

Mordisquitos wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, let's assume that is the case. Now the EU is very careful about the Norwegian pipeline, and surveillance of this pipeline dramatically increases to defend it from potential Russian sabotage. What has Russia gained with this?

You can't effectively defend hundreds of kilometers of an underwater pipeline, you can only increase monitoring but that doesn't stop the pipe from being blown up. In fact the charges could have already been placed, before any extra monitoring was deployed, and are just waiting for a signal. The point being - Russia has sent a very clear message that if we don't stop pushing back on Ukraine, that pipeline is next to…

It's not a clear message if they don't actually say, nor even strongly hint, "Stop pushing back on Ukraine or Baltic Pipe is next!"

No. It would make more sense for Russia to quietly blow up Baltic Pipe and say nothing.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#138

Post by ktfelt » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:42 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #128

captainmuon wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just hope it wasn't the US. That would be a devastating breach of trust for Germany and would backfire badly if it came out. I'm rooting for the Danish anarchists. You basically just need underwater explosives and a boat. You hang the explosives on a long rope, throw it over board like an anchor, and drag it into the pipeline. When you hit the pipeline, you detonate the explosives.

Don't worry. It wasn't the US. Not really our style. Sure, the CIA pulls dirty tricks, but those are quiet, in-the-shadows skullduggery where no one's paying attention. CIA doesn't do big and loud where other Americans can see it. Plus, motivations are wrong. The US catastrophically ends European energy dependence on Russia so that... it can compete with the Middle East and Russia and Canada on a more equal footing?…

There is Stuxnet and its predecessor, which blew up a pipeline!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r...

The U.S. motivation is that it has tried to shut down energy trades between the Soviet Union/Russia and Germany for more than 50 years.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#139

Post by rendall » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:42 AM UTC

samastur wrote: post #127

rendall wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think that blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines would not be seen as an act of war?

No, because it happened in international waters ON THEIR assets.

It didn't happen in international waters. It happened in Danish, Swedish and Finnish waters. Denmark is in NATO.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#140

Post by ktfelt » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:45 AM UTC

piaste wrote: post #108

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

I noticed that the Western press is quiet, too. Normally they'd scream "terrorist attack" on every front page. Now they only cite Ukraine claiming a Russian terror attack or say nothing.

If a Canadian pipe was blown up, the headlines would be different.