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Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

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Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#231

Post by BurningPenguin »

hotz wrote: post #168

My money's on nato or the usa. Western politicians are stupid enough to go along with the idea and America's got a long history of causing chaos internationally.

That doesn't make sense at all. Why attack allies and risk invoking defense treaties? Especially considering that there is no gas flowing through those pipelines. NS2 was never certified and therefore never in use. NS1 was essentially shut down illegally by Russia. So the USA did get what it wanted long before. By blowing up those pipelines, they would lose all trust from the EU and wouldn't have any leverage left.

Russia was pretending to have "technical problems" with those pipelines, and now it conveniently blows up? They are obligated by contract to supply us with gas until 2030. Breaking the contract may lead to financial penalties. Wouldn't it be convenient if those pipelines were to suddenly break for unknown reasons, so you don't have that problem?

You know what would release them from their obligations in the contract? An "act of god", that would make the pipelines unusable.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-decl...

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#232

Post by BurningPenguin »

WHA8m wrote: post #149

I like this thread. A bunch of possibly above average intelligent people going all in on discussing why and how such an attack was done. Very entertaining to read. What struck me, was that a few of you seriously think about the US as a contender for this attack. Does anyone has an recent example of the US being that hostile to friend nations?

I wouldn't say i'm intelligent. :D But i think this "US did it" theory doesn't make any sense. The only party that has interest in a broken pipeline is Russia. Why? Because it would release them from their obligation to deliver. There is an "act of god" clause in the contract. They know we won't accept any further delivery from them anyway. The sanctions won't go away anytime soon, and i think they may be planning for a full scale war in Ukraine.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#233

Post by laverya »

rendall wrote: post #175
belorn wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diving down 60-80 meters in the baltic ocean is quite advanced technical diving if you are just going to go down there and up again. Doing any kind of work (which increase breathing) at those depths is a massive step in complexity. We are talking about cold water diving, at hypoxic gas depths, with usually low visibility. The dive would require several hours of decompression in the middle of a shipping lane. The dens…

Someone downstream suggested dragging explosives on a rope, detonating when they hit the pipeline. Wouldn't even need to stop.

Drag explosives on a rope, but don't blow it up when it hits the pipeline - instead have it drop when that happens, and then detonate a week or more later.

Vessel positions are tracked and recorded after all.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#234

Post by hemloc_io »

p1esk wrote: post #15
c_o_n_v_e_x wrote: post #13

I worked in oil and gas in a previous life. The absolute wildest people I've ever met are saturation divers - divers who live in pressurized chambers on ships for months at a time to avoid having to decompress after dives. Fantastic money but you need a few screws loose to handle the work.

How much money is “fantastic money”?

around 350k per year, but you only work for a couple months at a time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slq9lkHWs0I

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#235

Post by marcusverus »

maratc wrote: post #186
piaste wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

But if the Russians were screaming bloody murder, this would no doubt be used to accuse them. So: Russians screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it. Russians aren't screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it.

Well said. The idea that we could tell who did this by analyzing the poker faces of the various suspects is pretty fantastical.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#236

Post by marcusverus »

WHA8m wrote: post #149

I like this thread. A bunch of possibly above average intelligent people going all in on discussing why and how such an attack was done. Very entertaining to read. What struck me, was that a few of you seriously think about the US as a contender for this attack. Does anyone has an recent example of the US being that hostile to friend nations?

Does anybody have a recent example of Russia destroying their own assets to the detriment of their strategic position?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#237

Post by theironhammer »

KennyBlanken wrote: post #187
belorn wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diving down 60-80 meters in the baltic ocean is quite advanced technical diving if you are just going to go down there and up again. Doing any kind of work (which increase breathing) at those depths is a massive step in complexity. We are talking about cold water diving, at hypoxic gas depths, with usually low visibility. The dive would require several hours of decompression in the middle of a shipping lane. The dens…

As someone with diving experience I laughed at parent comment's "anyone with scuba gear" assertion too - a classic example of "I'm an expert at everything because I'm a smart programmer who makes $200k a year" arrogance that is endemic here - but you're right next to them. - The timing of the explosions doesn't require "multiple coordinated teams." It requires timers. Or, as is common with naval mines, an acoustic ar…

And didn't these explosions happen the same day it was announced that the pipeline from Norway to Poland is now open?

USA likely did it to send a message to Putin and AfD (who talking about reviving it) that Nordstream is officially dead, now and forever. USA will be supplying the oil and gas to Europe, not Russia.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#238

Post by theironhammer »

DangerousPie wrote: post #173
ktfelt wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is Stuxnet and its predecessor, which blew up a pipeline! https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r... The U.S. motivation is that it has tried to shut down energy trades between the Soviet Union/Russia and Germany for more than 50 years.

But those trades were already shut down and not coming back anytime soon. If Germany had refused to join sanctions and was still using NS1 + NS2 at full capacity right now then maybe there would have been some motivation to force the issue. But why now, when the pipelines weren't even active?

AfD were hinting at reviving it. That would possibly be a popular proposal with the German public after this winter. Might get them a lot of votes.

Blowing it up guarantees Nordstream is forever dead.

The same day a new pipeline was announced as open from Norway to Poland.

Didn't a Polish EU MP tweet "Thank-you USA" when the news broke of the explosions.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#239

Post by theironhammer »

MichaelCollins wrote: post #193
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

> Just spitballing here, but why not a German opposition group? More likely the opposite. With the pipeline intact, German opposition could tell voters they will turn that gas on, something the present German government isn't willing to do. Now they can't, so the German opposition has less to offer.

Precisely.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#240

Post by theironhammer »

that_guy_iain wrote: post #97
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

> Resist going for "Clearly, Russia!". Just spitballing here, but why not a German opposition group? Norway? Poland? Any activist group opposed to EU dependence on Russia? Shit, why not Danish anarchists, for that matter? Realistically, it would have to have been a military operation. Causing explosions in the middle of the sea is rather difficult. And probably near impossible for your average terrorist group. Person…

It's also sending a signal to Putin. Just like Putin did with Novichok.
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