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Why did these groups miss a pipe on Nord Stream 2 that remains undamaged, and can be used by Russia to try and force certification of NS2 if things get bad?.
They didn't they got both. Nord Stream 2 has a leak too.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why did these groups miss a pipe on Nord Stream 2 that remains undamaged, and can be used by Russia to try and force certification of NS2 if things get bad?.
They didn't they got both. Nord Stream 2 has a leak too.
Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…
? who else would've done it? Stop pretending. 'Maybe not russia??' is an exciting idea, but this is not a Tom Clancy novel and no such groups in Europe exists. Especially that would have the resources to carry out an attack like this. The destruction of the pipeline happens simultaneous as Russia is in a direct conflict with Ukraine/Europe and is constantly flying drones at Norwegian oil platforms.
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>> it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this Of course it does - Poland is entirely relying on the Norway to Poland gas pipeline, if that goes then a country of 50 million people has no gas this winter. Blowing up the Nordstream was(to me) a clear signal that EU needs to be careful or the Norwegian pipelines are going up next.
OK, let's assume that is the case. Now the EU is very careful about the Norwegian pipeline, and surveillance of this pipeline dramatically increases to defend it from potential Russian sabotage. What has Russia gained with this?
The point being - Russia has sent a very clear message that if we don't stop pushing back on Ukraine, that pipeline is next to blow up. There is almost nothing we can do to prevent it if they want to make it happen.
Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…
The straits between the coasts of the southern Baltic sea are one of the most closely guarded waters in the world. There are at least 5 different nations (dk, se, de, pl, ru) coast guard assets with eyes on the region.
There is primary radar, secondary radar, seabed hydrophone arrays, surface vessels, submarines and airborne surveillance and satellites with eyes and ears on this region. And the surveillance has been increased a lot during this year.
Unless someone gets caught within a week, it's safe to assume that this sabotage was conducted by nation state level actors.
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No, or we wouldn't have needed gas a couple of years ago.
A couple of years ago??? Around 2010 they had 17 reactors, then they shut down 8. Last years they only had 6 running, now only 3. Yeah, they needed gas alright, because nuclear seems so much worse...
Now, NPPs are of course pretty expensive, and purely from a $/kWh perspective it's pretty difficult for the large-scale-engineering kind of power plant (this extends to any kind of thermal plant) to compete with the cheaper renewables. But $/kWh is not everything - NPPs are plannable and commandable capacity (unless you're the French), renewables aren't, so their kilowatt-hours are not actually directly comparable.
Naturally natural gas especially in Germany is not primarily used for electricity generation, but largely for process heat, residential heating and as a chemical. A lot of that could be replaced by using electricity, but that'd be quite expensive, too. However, even though natgas isn't used primarily for electricity, due to merit order / economic dispatch the gas price has a hugely outsized impact on electricity prices. This, among with very high taxes and dues on electricity, is what causes world-record prices in Germany.
Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…
You realize that that gas didn't evaporate but will be eventually sold to somebody else. Even if for lower prices. Russia doesn't have money issue right now, rather political/military one. The guy on top with his close circle has few hundreds billions stashed all around the world, he doesn't desperately need to get more immediately. Your arguments are valid but what baffles me in this topic is why folks try so hard t…
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Practically, anyone with access to the Baltic Sea, boats, scuba equipment, underwater explosives could do it, but they couldn't do it undetected. This area is under surveillance from Sweden and Denmark. If you want to do it undetected you need to do it completely underwater, including ingress and egress, and that absolutely limits the potential actors.
You think that Sweden and Denmark surveil every single dinghy and fishing boat and yacht and ferry? That if a tugboat stops for 3 or 4 or 8 hours along the 2400km stretches of the Nord Stream pipelines, the coast guards will swoop in with helicopters and snipers. Yeah, no. No, that would not have happened.
Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…
If this act of sabotage was not conducted by nation state actors with submarines, but someone using fishing boats and scuba divers instead like you suggest, the perpetrators will be caught in a manner of days. The straits between the coasts of the southern Baltic sea are one of the most closely guarded waters in the world. There are at least 5 different nations (dk, se, de, pl, ru) coast guard assets with eyes on the…