Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding • Hacker News Board

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#101

Post by Mordisquitos » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:04 AM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #81

Mordisquitos wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this (at least not the mainstream Russian state, I have my doubts about their internal unity). What's more, I find the timing of this incident odd, having happened just after the victory in the Italian elections of the far-right, who is somewhat ambivalent towards Putin. The only conceivable motivation I can come up with for Russia would…

>> it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this Of course it does - Poland is entirely relying on the Norway to Poland gas pipeline, if that goes then a country of 50 million people has no gas this winter. Blowing up the Nordstream was(to me) a clear signal that EU needs to be careful or the Norwegian pipelines are going up next.

OK, let's assume that is the case. Now the EU is very careful about the Norwegian pipeline, and surveillance of this pipeline dramatically increases to defend it from potential Russian sabotage.

What has Russia gained with this?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#102

Post by nollbit » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:05 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Practically, anyone with access to the Baltic Sea, boats, scuba equipment, underwater explosives could do it, but they couldn't do it undetected. This area is under surveillance from Sweden and Denmark.

If you want to do it undetected you need to do it completely underwater, including ingress and egress, and that absolutely limits the potential actors.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#103

Post by Huh1337 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:05 AM UTC

weberer wrote: post #86

Huh1337 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about the fact that the natural gas is being used instead of nuclear power?

Blame the extremely hypocritical green parties for that.

I know. In our state we're very pro-nuclear and the local Green party basically ended itself over this issue. I used to think that's surely going to happen in Germany too - such a scientific, rational and pragmatic nation/state, right? But oh well, seems like economical pragmatism wins over ecology and health.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#104

Post by vl » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:06 AM UTC

EdwardDiego wrote: post #23

alexose wrote: post #19

Hey. Let me walk you through the Donnelly nut spacing and crack system rim-riding rip configuration. Using a field of half-C sprats, and brass-fitted nickel slits, our bracketed caps, and splay-flexed brace columns vent dampers to dampening hatch depths of one half meter from the damper crown to the spurve plinths. How? Well, we bolster twelve husk nuts to each girdle-jerry, while flex tandems press a task apparatus…

I'm only somewhat sure that that's satire.

This is a quote from TV show Patriot. Spy embeds into O&G equipment company and has to learn the process.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#105

Post by rendall » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:06 AM UTC

saiya-jin wrote: post #91

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

You realize that that gas didn't evaporate but will be eventually sold to somebody else. Even if for lower prices. Russia doesn't have money issue right now, rather political/military one. The guy on top with his close circle has few hundreds billions stashed all around the world, he doesn't desperately need to get more immediately. Your arguments are valid but what baffles me in this topic is why folks try so hard t…

If you're saying that "hurt ego" is the motivation, OK, but there are many non-Russian beneficiaries from the action that do not rely on irrationality or weird 4D chess false-flag explanations.

Why not consider those first, in turn?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#106

Post by elihu » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:06 AM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #45

vasco wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those 150k tons are for heating people's homes. Whereas the spend on the boat fuel is simply for construction of the pipeline so if you can optimize that, that's under your control, as the company laying pipe right now. Though maybe you prefer everyone die of cold until we have a solution to transition out of natural gas without returning to coal or wait 10 years to build more nuclear.

NS2 was started ten years ago and cost around nine billion euros. Nine billion buys a lot of insulation, heat pumps, and wind turbines over ten years. Wheras NS2 was only ever needed so that Russia can turn off gas for Ukraine without turning it off for Germany.

I think it was more about Germany being able to buy gas straight from Russia without having to pay fees to Poland/Ukraine/Belarus/whoever for transporting gas through their territory.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#107

Post by AndrewThrowaway » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:10 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #100

AndrewThrowaway wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it would be a direct attack on NATO.

The Nord Stream sabotage is not? You know some of the explosions happened on NATO territory, right?

Nord Stream is 51% Russian (Gazprom). Not sure if it is NATO territory or international waters. It still becomes a little bit more "muddy" on who could have made it and who benefits from it.

Attacking Norway-Poland line at this point would be a very obvious and very direct attack on NATO.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#108

Post by piaste » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:10 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty).

The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it.

If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already be on a plane to NYC and calling for an emergency UNSC meeting about a terrorist UK/USA attack against Russia's assets.

So far, the most they have produced seems to be a mealy-mouthed question on Zakharova's Telegram channel [0]. Given the Russian Foreign Ministry's modus operandi of blaming the West for anything and everything at the slightest excuse, this sudden quiet is extremely significant.

[0] https://tass.com/politics/1514405

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#109

Post by Findecanor » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:10 AM UTC

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

The three explosion sites are at depths of 70 - 80 meters. That would require a trained diver with professional equipment, or an underwater drone. Not that professional divers don't go deeper. But a recreational scuba diver, with readily available gear would dive to max half that depth.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#110

Post by rendall » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 8:11 AM UTC

nollbit wrote: post #102

rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Practically, anyone with access to the Baltic Sea, boats, scuba equipment, underwater explosives could do it, but they couldn't do it undetected. This area is under surveillance from Sweden and Denmark. If you want to do it undetected you need to do it completely underwater, including ingress and egress, and that absolutely limits the potential actors.

You think that Sweden and Denmark surveil every single dinghy and fishing boat and yacht and ferry? That if a tugboat stops for 3 or 4 or 8 hours along the 2400km stretches of the Nord Stream pipelines, the coast guards will swoop in with helicopters and snipers. Yeah, no. No, that would not have happened.