Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

forsvaret.dk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

831–840 of 1001 posts

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#831

Post by csomar »

WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #666
thiagoharry wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

Like on any crime scene, who profits from the crime? Well, a few things first: 1- NS1 along NS2 are (were) shutdown and clearly these were not going to re-open, not before the end of the war - not politically acceptable for Putin, even less for Germany 2- The war is going to last for many more months (best case scenario) or a year or two or ... No matter how long it will really last, Europe, after having survived Win…

It's interesting you wrote a very long response and yet you presented no concrete arguments that the US could be behind this.

We can agree that most EU countries will not support such an incident. The only two countries who have the technical capability and the political reasons are the USA and Russia. Both are evil and ready to blow the world for their own gains.

> why would they take the risk to destroy the pipeline knowing Germans won't buy Russian gas in the foreseeable future?

Because they know their "allies" will cave. They've been trying to push them from Russian gas for a long time now but it didn't work.

> Their utmost priority is that Ukraine defeats Russia to send a strong message to China.

They are not trying to send a message to China. They are being engaged in a proxy war with Russia since the cold war. Now things are heating up again as they are closing in on their prey.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#832

Post by DSingularity »

UyERifyhDLWOf wrote: post #794
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

The OP link goes to "forsvaret.dk" wich is the Danish military. I am a Dane. I think I may be able to offer a perspective on this that non-Danes will simply miss. While being a regular reader, for posting this I have created a new account that will not be used again. Please excuse me for being a bit verbose, as this is not simple: ONE First, I am not positive if this technically happened inside our territorial waters…

ONE the world is falling apart TWO half the internet thinks the Russians are the aggressor THREE half the internet thinks the country that nuked Japan, decimated Vietnam, bombed Cambodia, illegally invaded Iraq, supports brutal dictatorships world wide, … is to blame for pushing its hegemonic grip a tad bit too much FOUR the effects of this are spreading… the world is falling apart

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#833

Post by postingawayonhn »

mjfl wrote: post #791
ancorevard wrote: post #244

The most plain explanation is that this was simply a warning message from Russia. These two pipelines have no longer any value to them, nor to EU. However, what does have value are the numerous pipelines from Norway and other countries to EU. And this is where the real treat is. Russia has now shown it is willing to blow up infrastructure outside Ukraine. Russia is known to have carefully mapped out the gas pipelines…

The economics of the warning don't make sense. Why destroy billions of dollars, 10 years of construction, and hundreds of miles of Russian investment for a warning? That's stupid, and Putin isn't stupid, at all. Dogshit take.

It's not about economics, it's about winning the war. He's telling NATO to back down or he will make winter hell for their populations.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#834

Post by Torkel »

apexalpha wrote: post #282
Torkel wrote: post #193

”Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity”… Does anything happen to gas in a pipeline that makes pressure increase? Could it be a lack of or poor monitoring of pressure that caused it?

Sure it could. But on both NS1 and NS2? At the same time? Very unlikely.

Yeah, I know. Seemes totally unlikely. I wrote comment before seeing that…

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#835

Post by stingraycharles »

kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

The fallout is that there’s now a sudden realization that these pipelines are subject to sabotage, including the pipeline to Poland, which creates unrest in the gas market. This, in turn, hinders the expected recovery of the gas price in the winter, and somewhat increases pressure on Europe.

I wouldn’t say that the act of sabotage is minimal.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#836

Post by stingraycharles »

hackerlight wrote: post #809
kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

"Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken." There's two assumptions embedded in this sentence. Firstly, who is saying it is permanently broken? If the repairs are cheap, Russia may decide the cost of that is worth the amount of distrust it has introduced. Secondly, how do you know that Russia hasn't decided that NS2 will become a sunk cost, due to the way that EU ha…

> Firstly, who is saying it is permanently broken? If the repairs are cheap, Russia may decide the cost of that is worth the amount of distrust it has introduced.

Experts, apparently. These pipelines weren’t made to carry salty seawater, and are now filling up with that. This means a lengthy repair is required.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#837

Post by petre »

kbelder wrote: post #481
holoduke wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say the Ukrainians in cooperation with their biggest friends: the Polish government. It's in no interest for the Russians to destroy their own pipeline. They could as well just shut down the supply. I don't wanna speak to negative about Ukraine. But don't forget that the country belongs to the most corrupt and dirty countries in Europe. The state is controlled by oligarchs. In fact the Oligarchs brought the Z…

In my mind, the Ukrainians are the only party who could blow the pipelines without being dirty. It's a strategic asset of a country they're in an active war with.

They did not blow the other pipelines passing through Ukraine, so why would they blow up NS? To deny themselves military aid from Germany? It doesn't make sense.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#838

Post by hackerlight »

stingraycharles wrote: post #836
hackerlight wrote: post #809

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken." There's two assumptions embedded in this sentence. Firstly, who is saying it is permanently broken? If the repairs are cheap, Russia may decide the cost of that is worth the amount of distrust it has introduced. Secondly, how do you know that Russia hasn't decided that NS2 will become a sunk cost, due to the way that EU ha…

> Firstly, who is saying it is permanently broken? If the repairs are cheap, Russia may decide the cost of that is worth the amount of distrust it has introduced. Experts, apparently. These pipelines weren’t made to carry salty seawater, and are now filling up with that. This means a lengthy repair is required.

> lengthy repair

I know, but at what cost? If Russia can sow distrust for $X million, maybe it's worth it? And who will pick up that repair bill? Is it strictly Russia? I see a lot of handwaving saying the project is forever destroyed with no sources. If we're going to be speculating on incentives from our armchairs, these details are pretty important.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#839

Post by SanjayMehta »

twelve40 wrote: post #768
SanjayMehta wrote: post #725

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia could have just turned off the tap. The sabotage ensures Europe can't back off from the US sanctions now. Wrecks Germany's economy, thereby eliminating a rival. VW et al are already talking about moving production to the US. And Biden promised to take care of NS 2 back in February itself. https://youtu.be/OS4O8rGRLf8

This. Amazing how people get caught up in their fantasies and ignore simple facts.

Indeed. The demagoguery in their comments are quite revealing.
Post reply on HN