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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

forsvaret.dk

781–790 of 1001 posts

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#781

I don't see a mention that today is the day Poland officially opens up its pipeline to Denmark and Norway. The pipeline Russia (and to a much lesser extent Germany) put a lot of resources trying to jeopardize. Some of the things those two countries did include: Financing of various "grassroots ecology groups" that managed to find an extremely important field mouse (no joke!) habitat on the planned route which caused…

Do you have any sources to back up your claims?

Russia is known for using environmentalist groups as fronts for geopolitical strategy. One of Russia's greatest wins was hamstringing Keystone XL pipeline. Sure would be nice leverage for US.

https://weber.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=...

https://fortune.com/2018/03/01/russia-social-media-energy-po...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#782

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"...he (or she)" couldn't help smiling at the instinctive political correctness. Reminds of of a story about a person from US visiting South Africa and at some point referring to black people in the audience as African Americans.

My university announced an call for applications to an initiative supporting Ukrainian students and one of the bullet points read “impact on Indigenous and minority peoples of Ukraine” Now Roma aside, the only Ukrainian law about this covers Tatars, Krymchaks and Karaim in occupied Crimea (not even Hutsuls) so basically they wrote the law because EU told them to, and in such a way so they wouldn’t have to lift a fing…

Not true.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/students-allege-racism...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#783
post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. That would be a tragic miscalculation. If it comes out that Ukraine is responsible, German public sentiment will turn hard . No more military shipments, maybe even rapproachement with Russia. If it's a state actor, I'd think about Poland first.

Why not USA? https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

Obviously could be, but would be a huge reputational price for little reward. Same with Ukraine (even worse for them)

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#784
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of these make much sense. It's pretty idle to speculate, and the list is most likely incomplete and inaccurate. It only feeds the trolls. Then again, this whole thread is full of fingerpointing without evidence. If HN can't contain itself, what won't the twitter and facebook, and –may God forget– Truth Social do?

In this tweet from the US State Department's twitter account on 2022-01-22 (a month before the most recent invasion), a US official says: "... I want to be clear with you today. If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, NordStream 2 will not move forward." It's not evidence, but contextually incriminating nonetheless. https://twitter.com/statedept/status/1486818088016355336

A kind of operation like this would be known by very very few. Same with all conspiracy theories, people like to point to vague statements made by officials who would have absolutely zero idea about this kind of operation.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#785
post #778

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia could have just turned off the tap. The sabotage ensures Europe can't back off from the US sanctions now. Wrecks Germany's economy, thereby eliminating a rival. VW et al are already talking about moving production to the US. And Biden promised to take care of NS 2 back in February itself. https://youtu.be/OS4O8rGRLf8

This is tinfoil-haberdashery. No, Biden did not authorize a clandestine attack on Russian infrastructure just to boost the US auto industry, nor did he subtly broadcast his nefarious intent months ago as part of some game to throw red meat to the conspiratorialists, Q-style. The US would have nothing to gain and everything to lose by engaging in such an action, and has absolutely no impetus to since it already curren…

> it could just as easily be any random entity; Iran, or North Korea, or Greenpeace, or mermaids, or the shambling, zombified corpse of Abraham Lincoln.

Obviously a rhetorical flourish but Iran and North Korea would have substantially less capability for an attack of this nature. It’s not impossible but certainly there are more likely perpetrators.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#786

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My university announced an call for applications to an initiative supporting Ukrainian students and one of the bullet points read “impact on Indigenous and minority peoples of Ukraine” Now Roma aside, the only Ukrainian law about this covers Tatars, Krymchaks and Karaim in occupied Crimea (not even Hutsuls) so basically they wrote the law because EU told them to, and in such a way so they wouldn’t have to lift a fing…

Not true. https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/students-allege-racism...

If the students in question do not possess Ukrainian nationality the scheme at my university wouldn't have covered them.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#787

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

Russia wants NATO to stop giving Ukraine weapons, but they also really want to sell their gas to Europe. And they already controlled the spigot of the Nord Stream pipeline, so they wouldn't have to blow up anything to stop deliveries. Yes, the great powers have done some really stupid things, especially Russia, so it's dangerous to assume rationality, but they all like keeping their options open to a fault. "We're co…

It is pretty interesting. In reality this makes no sense for anyone. It doesn't really make sense for Russia for the reasons you mentioned (tho they often make stupid decisions), but it also doesn't make sense for the West for reputation reasons. If this comes out to be the work of any western country it would have dire consequences for them and I just don't see the risk/reward. Could be some separatist group somewhere.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#788

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my mind, the Ukrainians are the only party who could blow the pipelines without being dirty. It's a strategic asset of a country they're in an active war with.

At 70m it could also be a private citizen

That's the wild thing about this. It would take very minimal resources to pull off this kind of action.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#789

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy mar…

Europe knows the US mistreats us, it is no secret. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to learn it was a UK submarine under US instructions for example. We know how the US spy on us, spy on private companies to favor their own, mess with our currencies, isolate us and exploit us. Uses us as cannon fodder. We remember all the times the US was caught spying on our leaders, deciding our elections, threatening invasion and…

Europe live's on the US's teat. Ukraine and Nato do not exist with the US. Without US LNG Europe would be begging Putin for gas, leaving Ukraine to rot. Without US defense spending Russia would have rolled through Ukraine and be on its way to Berlin again. Without the US in WW2 Europe would be speaking German or Russian. On and on.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#790

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

Europe had already figured out their energy supply for the winter. They weren't counting on Russia.
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