Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

forsvaret.dk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

651–660 of 1001 posts

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#651

Post by throw827474737 »

aredox wrote: post #507
phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on. If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

Yes, Ukraine's famous Baltic sea combat divers.

Come on, even environmental terrorists could pull this off?!?

(Just reading "green man" :D).

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#652

Post by _kbh_ »

colinmhayes wrote: post #431
_kbh_ wrote: post #182

A plausible theory for why Russia has done this could be to avoid fines. It is likely that Russia has agreements with steep penalties for if they voluntarily don't provide gas like they agreed too (like what they are doing with Nord Stream 1). Blowing large holes in the pipelines could allow Russia to claim that they cannot provide gas because the pipelines are broken, effectively avoiding the fines.

How would fines work? Russia has already had its assets seized.

Russia hasn’t had all of its assets seized. Additionally it may not even be about asset seizure, but about not wanting to look like a unreliable business partner. But even as I say that the actions of Russia lately make them seem unreliable already.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#653

Post by Paradigma11 »

eternalban wrote: post #637
Paradigma11 wrote: post #610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it was the Russians trying to sow discord and distrust within the western allies. Nobody was going to use this pipeline in the near future anyway, so there is no immediate cost for Russia. If there really should be a lifting of the sanctions then there would be enough time to repair the pipeline....done and paid by the germans.

As I mentioned this, or other variants I've seen being posted in twitter, with Russia doing this does not compute. A kilometer wide gas bubble on surface indicates substantial damage. I think it safe to assume that sea water in pipe further damages an additional length of pipeline. German government (or any future one with surprise ala Italy) no longer has the option of giving in to economic and social pressures and…

Germany has enough gas for the winter and given the current sentiment I dont think there is any chance before spring/summer of any accommodation with Russia. I guess Russia REALLY needs to break up the (mostly) united western alliance to reduce arms and financial support for Ukraine.

Paying for this with some temporary broken pipeline that wouldnt have been used anyway is most likely acceptable for the siloviki.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#654

Post by nradov »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #543
aredox wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Ukraine's famous Baltic sea combat divers.

Ukraine has a sea coast and a Navy, so I have no doubt that they have combat divers. Thus the only issue would be a logistic one. My take is that it is trivial to send people to the Baltic along with access to diving equipment and boats. Via sea route it should also be very doable to ship explosives. So it is at least plausible.

Any sort of underwater demolitions is pretty much the opposite of "trivial". How much diving have you done? The real world isn't like a James Bond movie.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#655

Post by matkoniecz »

randmeerkat wrote: post #370
Tomte wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. That would be a tragic miscalculation. If it comes out that Ukraine is responsible, German public sentiment will turn hard . No more military shipments, maybe even rapproachement with Russia. If it's a state actor, I'd think about Poland first.

> That would be a tragic miscalculation. If it comes out that Ukraine is responsible, German public sentiment will turn hard. > No more military shipments… What shipments[1]? [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/16/ukraine-slams-germany-for-fa...

This shipments: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-m...

"Contrary to popular perception, Germany has delivered significant amounts of arms and equipment to Ukraine to aid the country in its fight against the Russian military. In fact, the volume of arms deliveries by Berlin exceeds that of every other country safe for the United States and the United Kingdom. Nonetheless, Germany has faced severe criticism and even mockery for its perceived lack of support to Ukraine and its ill-fated attempts to keep its relationship with Moscow intact. While ultimately positioning itself as a reliable partner of Ukraine, it can be argued that Berlin's communication to affirm its Ukraine stance and explain foreign policy goals has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster."

Also, they host import USA bases and helped in other ways.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#656

Post by _kbh_ »

nkingsy wrote: post #581
_kbh_ wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Edit: these things are censored in google, Wikipedia etc by US state actors. We largely have to go on the words of people like Max Blumenthal and others who have been largely censored and scrubbed from easy access by these same state apparatuses or wait until foia requests reveal what they always reveal about our benevolent state. Max Blumenthal is a Russian propagandist who is a regular guest on Russian state back…

Quoted post unavailable.

> Just looked at your comment history and every comment is anti Russia. Seems you are in fact well paid.

My posts are anti war, anti genocide, anti rape and anti torture.

It just so happens that Russia is the one raping, torturing and committing genocide now days.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#657

Post by throw827474737 »

scottLobster wrote: post #616
phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on. If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

Ukraine has active natural gas pipelines running through its territory right now. Why not blow those up? Would be easy enough to claim a stray Russian artillery strike missed and hit a pipeline.

Exactly, and they need some gas for their winter too, getting their ""tax"" from the pipelines like in good old peaceful times?; :D

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#658

Post by dividedbyzero »

monkeydreams wrote: post #569
mytailorisrich wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

I don't know that Ukraine has the capability to do this. The number of countries capable of this act is quite small.

I wonder what would be the bare minimum required to stage an operation like this, if one were willing to take big risks. Like, combat divers operating from an inconspicuous sailing yacht or the like? Sail into position, go down (80 meters should be doable with Trimix), place explosives with timed fuses (set to a few weeks?), go back up, throw the equipment overboard later, sail into Kiel with no one the wiser? Not that such a scenario is very likely, but there have been a lot of crazy stunts in this and other wars.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#659

Post by Paradigma11 »

pphysch wrote: post #647
Paradigma11 wrote: post #628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure the repair can be done before there is any chance the sanctions would be lifted. So Russia doesnt really lose anything important but is able to sow discord, mistrust and generally raise the fear level about gas supply.

That's possible, albeit a very expensive prank with no guaranteed upside. Why not just keep the valve shut and pretend you have no interest in opening it?

Because Russia needs to do "something" now to hopefully reduce arms and financial support for Ukraine and this is "something".

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#660

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

woodruffw wrote: post #620
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The more sensible interpretation is that Biden was threatening to fully support Germany's plans to become energy independent. I don't think that Biden was threatening to blow up the pipeline, but what you've given is a somewhat sugar-coated version of the American approach towards Germany and Nord Stream 2. Long before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the US began sanctioning German companies involved in NS2. T…

> At the time, I read Biden's statement as a promise that the US would sharpen sanctions on German companies involved in the project if the Germans did not willingly exit the project themselves. While I don't doubt the factuality of this, I didn't get that from this specific briefing (given that it was with Scholz, who expressed unity with the US's position). In other words: unless Scholz is saying one thing and doin…

I think Biden thought that Germany would end NS2 if Russia invaded the Ukraine, but that he was also prepared to sharpen sanctions if the Germans didn't do so.

I wouldn't read too much into Scholz' expression of unity with the US position. The German government almost never criticizes the US government (with some very rare exceptions, such as in 2003, in the lead-up to the Iraq War). If you ever want to hear German government spokespeople tying themselves into knots, just listen to them try to explain their position on the US prosecution of Assange,[0] or on whether Germany would give asylum to Snowden.[1]

0. https://youtu.be/tyRKt_3RJpg

1. https://youtu.be/-pitc_FWm2Q

Post reply on HN