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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#601

Post by NaturalPhallacy »

FiberBundle wrote: post #270
pphysch wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. That's frankly absurd. Russia almost certainly sabotaged a LNG terminal in Texas a few months ago (industrial cyberattack). This act was almost certainly done by Washington or their proxies. It drives the wedge fu…

It's really not that absurd. The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it. Their intent is to cause division in the West. They could potentially hope for EU countries to blame the US or Ukraine for this. If you read Twitter trends you already see an army of Russian bots pushing the theory that the US has done this.

>It's really not that absurd. The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it.

Yeah, let's just forget all about Occam's' razor.

>If you read Twitter trends you already see an army of Russian bots pushing the theory that the US has done this.

Because it makes sense? US social media is 100% pro-Ukrainian propaganda and any slight dissent, criticisms or questioning is met seemingly instantly from multiple accounts alleging Russian propaganda. Meanwhile the biggest impact on American social media is American propaganda. Including about our alleged ally, Ukraine. And like Israel, they seem to be more trouble than they're worth as far as the interests of the average American citizen are concerned.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#603

Post by pydry »

rnk wrote: post #386
Kukumber wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the thing, there is high demand, and they have supply, they also can sell them contracts to build more infrastructure to increase the rate at wich supply is delivered Quickening the cut from gazprom is in their plan, considering: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-says-groups-... We can all pretend and not see what's happening, but then you have this: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia…

It's just ridiculous to claim that the US somehow sabotaged the pipeline to help LNG gas' future potential. There is infinite demand for LNG today, hugely unmet demand. It will take a least a decade of increased infrastructure and ships to get even close to meeting current European demand for natural gas. The world is not a James Bond movie. Obviously everyone is doing things to help Ukraine today. We are giving them…

>There is infinite demand for LNG today, hugely unmet demand.

Yeah, coz of the war. Before the war they couldnt shift it.

>The US has tried to talk the europeans out of depending on russian gas for decades. Of course we want all the customers we can find, but there's no shortage of customers!

There was in 2021. LNG is particularly unappealing to countries with a pipeline.

There's a reason that, much to America's chagrin, Germany have zero LNG port capacity.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#604

Post by cm2187 »

jahnu wrote: post #501
yznovyak wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

How long would it take to repair the pipelines? A few months? Feels like that would scupper this theory.

As long as it takes longer than the end of the winter

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#605

Post by Paradigma11 »

eloff wrote: post #113
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

The H0 is it was Russia. Their competing intelligence agencies love to pull such shit. Maybe as a false flag, false false false flag or any other kind of rationalisation some paranoid mind in the Kremlin came up with.

To generate more fear and distrust in the european population?

If there was any way to bet on these things, i would love put some money on it.

But maybe there really is another involved actor who risked such a stupid move (some radical polish or baltic actors?)

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#606

Post by ajsnigrutin »

throwrqX wrote: post #401
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, this now means freezing europe and a lot of money for USA, against european peoples interests... especially for people who don't really care about ukraine, as they didn't care about afghanistan, syria, libya etc., and just want a nice life for themselves (so, most people).

No this does not mean Europe will freeze, and honestly this was never going to happen. Worst case is lots of companies will fail. See: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/europe-is...

Yeah sure... they're saying we have enough reserves, then in the same sentance, that we must limit the time we shower, that we must wear sweaters indoors, that we must not heat our houses above X degrees, and many of the companies are aalready shutting down due to gas prices.... and it's not even winter yet.

What do you expect the politicians to do? Say that we're fucked because they didn't want to negotiate? ...so we can protest and replace them before we're actually fucked? Or lie about being ready, until it's obvious we're not ready and we're fucked, and with a destroyed pipeline, we cannot even negotiate anymore.

We're talking about people who couldn't even get masks during covid.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#607

Post by qqqwerty »

bamboozled wrote: post #422
ancorevard wrote: post #244

The most plain explanation is that this was simply a warning message from Russia. These two pipelines have no longer any value to them, nor to EU. However, what does have value are the numerous pipelines from Norway and other countries to EU. And this is where the real treat is. Russia has now shown it is willing to blow up infrastructure outside Ukraine. Russia is known to have carefully mapped out the gas pipelines…

Except now they’ve told everyone they’re coming, which would be stupid. If they were considering blowing up pipelines they wouldn’t tell anyone and ruin the element of surprise.

The threat is more valuable than the the actual action. Russia's nuclear threats can only accomplish so much. They have so far kept NATO from getting directly involved but clearly have not worked to keep NATO weapons out of Ukraine or moderated sanctions.

And with the EU getting closer to removing its dependence on Russian gas, the energy angle is quickly vanishing. This could be Russias way of subtly signaling that it can still play that card. An explicit verbal threat might not be taken seriously. But a demonstration of how easy it is to sabotage a pipeline has certainly gotten folks attention.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#608

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

woodruffw wrote: post #597
thiagoharry wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is the country that threatened an attack against the gas pipeline. "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the -- the border of Ukraine again, then there will be -- there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2," Biden said during the press conference with Scholz, who did not go as far as Biden, but insisted the U.S. and Germany remain "absolutely united." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-meet-…

It's a serious stretch to read this as threatening an attack on the pipeline itself. Not only is it from over 6 months ago, but it doesn't make any sense: NS2 is controlled by the Germans themselves, and there's no strategic value in blowing it up rather than just turning it off (or on). The more sensible interpretation is that Biden was threatening to fully support Germany's plans to become energy independent. And t…

> The more sensible interpretation is that Biden was threatening to fully support Germany's plans to become energy independent.

I don't think that Biden was threatening to blow up the pipeline, but what you've given is a somewhat sugar-coated version of the American approach towards Germany and Nord Stream 2.

Long before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the US began sanctioning German companies involved in NS2. The American approach to NS2 has been rather blunt, given that Germany is a close ally that usually toes the line, even to its own detriment.

At the time, I read Biden's statement as a promise that the US would sharpen sanctions on German companies involved in the project if the Germans did not willingly exit the project themselves.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#609

Post by greycol »

thiagoharry wrote: post #578
yznovyak wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

Why is Putin direct interest destroy a source of income and leverage to the country!?!? Now Germany can buy gas from 2 sources: Ukraine and USA. This explanation makes no sense to me.

Just because doing something has a negative outcome it doesn't mean not doing it can't have a worse outcome.

i.e. if a car jacker threatens to shoot you if you don't hand over your car that doesn't mean handing over your car was a great outcome.

In this hypothetical Putin had the choice between having a higher chance of accidentally falling down the stairs/out a window, or weakening his country economically. Putin doesn't mind watching Russia suffer more if it means a better personal outcome for him so the hypothetical choice is easy.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#610

Post by Paradigma11 »

eternalban wrote: post #551
phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on. If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

This is not an act in the same level as the Ukraine-Russia war. This is a very top level geopolitical attack. This appears to be in international waters so it will be interesting when forensic results are published. It can not possibly be in Russia's interest. They could easily nix NS2 at source. And now, even if diplomacy or desperation brings Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, NS2 is out of commission for a…

I think it was the Russians trying to sow discord and distrust within the western allies. Nobody was going to use this pipeline in the near future anyway, so there is no immediate cost for Russia. If there really should be a lifting of the sanctions then there would be enough time to repair the pipeline....done and paid by the germans.
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