It is exceedingly unlikely that this is an accident, seeing as no less than three separate pipelines were punctured at different locations within hours of each other. While none of the pipelines were currently operational, this basically ensures that even if some agreement could be reached with Russia to resume gas imports (not very likely!), it will not be possible in the short term, seeing as the operator claims da…
Metastable scenario is metastable. Which quantum of energy or momentum broke the metastability is simply not an important question.
Peter Zeihan has repeatedly pointed out that permanently ending Russian oil exports is now within the reach of even Latvia's navy.
It is exceedingly unlikely that this is an accident, seeing as no less than three separate pipelines were punctured at different locations within hours of each other. While none of the pipelines were currently operational, this basically ensures that even if some agreement could be reached with Russia to resume gas imports (not very likely!), it will not be possible in the short term, seeing as the operator claims da…
If I could put on my amateur geo-political-analyst hat for a moment, who could be behind this and why? Seems like a Putin move, since he dared using (probably) a sub in other nations' waters. Reason? To show Europe he means business? To show Europe he's not planning to rewind anything to the way things were in 2021?
There are two scenarios.
1. Ukraine or pro-Ukrainian forces.
2. Russia. Attack the gas market which just settled, and raise the prices again.
If I could put on my amateur geo-political-analyst hat for a moment, who could be behind this and why? Seems like a Putin move, since he dared using (probably) a sub in other nations' waters. Reason? To show Europe he means business? To show Europe he's not planning to rewind anything to the way things were in 2021?
There are two scenarios. 1. Ukraine or pro-Ukrainian forces. 2. Russia. Attack the gas market which just settled, and raise the prices again.
There is another option which is being discussed in Norwegian media now - that the Russians have used the pipelines essentially for storage of excess gas (Seeing as the pipelines are basically, combined, a 5M cubic meter pressure vessel)
That would go a long way towards explaining how several ruptures happened in relatively short succession - pipes being loaded up with too much gas (after all, the more gas stored, the more money in the bank for later on!)
Once the first one burst, someone probably re-evaluated that idea, but letting off gas in sufficient quantities fast enough may not have been possible.
Of course, if this was indeed the case, I assume it will very soon be very evident - I can't imagine that the rupture caused by an external force will be indistinguishable from that of it rupturing due to overpressure.
It is exceedingly unlikely that this is an accident, seeing as no less than three separate pipelines were punctured at different locations within hours of each other. While none of the pipelines were currently operational, this basically ensures that even if some agreement could be reached with Russia to resume gas imports (not very likely!), it will not be possible in the short term, seeing as the operator claims da…
Occam's razor applies here. In the past, militaries would burn the boats and bridges behind them to ensure no retreat within their ranks. So now it doesn't matter how cold it gets this winter, you will ride with the US/NATO on this adventure whether you like it or not.
If I could put on my amateur geo-political-analyst hat for a moment, who could be behind this and why? Seems like a Putin move, since he dared using (probably) a sub in other nations' waters. Reason? To show Europe he means business? To show Europe he's not planning to rewind anything to the way things were in 2021?
I'm curious why you're avoiding the obvious party: the USA did this. Biden even stated he would do it. https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-germanys-scholz-stress-u...
Ah, this analysis is in the same ballpark as misinterepting what Bill Gates said about vaccines and lowering the rate of population growth in Africa as "Bill Gates wants to lower the population in Africa!" and then concluding that Bill Gates started Covid so he can vaccinate and kill people, "see, he even stated so!".
It is exceedingly unlikely that this is an accident, seeing as no less than three separate pipelines were punctured at different locations within hours of each other. While none of the pipelines were currently operational, this basically ensures that even if some agreement could be reached with Russia to resume gas imports (not very likely!), it will not be possible in the short term, seeing as the operator claims da…
Occam's razor applies here. In the past, militaries would burn the boats and bridges behind them to ensure no retreat within their ranks. So now it doesn't matter how cold it gets this winter, you will ride with the US/NATO on this adventure whether you like it or not.
Occam razor here would be internal fighting about Russia factions. The cost/benefit of getting discovered vs not here are not in favor of any external NATO-ish player since there is already enough cohesion, while getting caught would be catastrophic. Literally little to gain and all to lose. And the temporal difference between the reported seismic events is also against the idea of an external country doing it: you wouldn't wait that long between events since it would massively increase the risk of getting discovered. If you are doing a proper sabotage you'd have events close to each other (30m or so) or very spread (days away)
Occam's razor applies here. In the past, militaries would burn the boats and bridges behind them to ensure no retreat within their ranks. So now it doesn't matter how cold it gets this winter, you will ride with the US/NATO on this adventure whether you like it or not.
Occam razor here would be internal fighting about Russia factions. The cost/benefit of getting discovered vs not here are not in favor of any external NATO-ish player since there is already enough cohesion, while getting caught would be catastrophic. Literally little to gain and all to lose. And the temporal difference between the reported seismic events is also against the idea of an external country doing it: you w…
The US/NATO/Ukraine has 100% control over the media narrative in the West, it would be impossible to "get caught". Anything that comes out that is against the desired narrative is simply waved away as Russian propaganda.
That didn’t seem to stop an invasion and bombing campaign.
I don't know, maybe stopping a full on military juggernaut led by a demagogue in power takes a more effort than a precision attack on an economic asset on an unguarded civilian (if strategic) asset with 500km long single point of failure
If I could put on my amateur geo-political-analyst hat for a moment, who could be behind this and why? Seems like a Putin move, since he dared using (probably) a sub in other nations' waters. Reason? To show Europe he means business? To show Europe he's not planning to rewind anything to the way things were in 2021?
I'm curious why you're avoiding the obvious party: the USA did this. Biden even stated he would do it. https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-germanys-scholz-stress-u...
Nord stream 2 had already been halted; Biden already got what he wanted. Far more likely IMO is that Putin did it hoping to blame it on the US to divide NATO.
They said it was 60-70 meters deep. You could hit them with an anchor and it happens regularly with different types of cables and pipes. Shouldn’t be too hard to mess one up with a decent size boat.
Also well within professional scuba diving range. No submarine needed. Just a "fishing trawler."