Earlier quoted context omitted.
So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…
Whoever did it - any further debate along "let's make friends again with Putin and go back to the cheap Russian gas as it once was" lines is now settled. That alone will have interesting consequences across EU.
Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
531–540 of 1001 posts
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#532Earlier quoted context omitted.
Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)
Let's hope no NATO ally would be fool hardy enough to take this action. I'm uncomfortable with light hearted talk about the US and NATO being involved in this. Clearly people speaking so cavalierly about that possibility do not understand the implications of such an act in the alliance system. The purpose of an alliance is not to surprise your partners. It's to ensure your partners are not surprised. On a completely…
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#533Earlier quoted context omitted.
So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…
Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#534Earlier quoted context omitted.
We have indeed been hating NS since the first pipeline was planned and opened. The reason for it's very existence has always been to squeeze us out of the picture. However, it would be an enormous risk for us to alienate NATO in any way. NATO is our only protection and we know it. Without NATO we are extremely easy to conquer - Stalin made sure of that when he drew our current borders. My money would be on a more ext…
That's an interesting possibility I hadn't thought of. Can a faction really blow up an undersea pipeline in three places at once, though?
This is at least my own understanding of Putin’s Russia - Putin only explains who the enemy is and what the Pravda is. Stakeholders vying for power in his orbit then respond by bringing forward complete solutions. He can then reward the ones he likes and punish for the ones that he doesn’t. This gives him a layer of insulation from responsibility. No one can ever say for certain that he ordered the execution of this journalist or was involved in that war-zone hospital bombing. He only has to integrate such events as they happen and refocus attention on who the enemy is. Those factions vying for his attention are also probably sabotaging each other all the time as well.
Anyways, with the conscription rolling ahead in full force and the Russian media proclaiming that enormous losses in Ukraine are due to NATO help; I think there are powerful factions within the Russian system who are pushing for a return to a healthy EU relationship with gas flowing and access to Western tech. And then there are other factions who would prefer the war to continue to escalate. Nothing quite shuts up the former group like the destruction of critical infrastructure needed to revert to the previous status quo.
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#535Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#536Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#537Do we know yet if the leak has been flared? Or has the damaged pipe bee shut off and the leak stopped?
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#538Earlier quoted context omitted.
This makes zero sense to me. What does Russia get by destroying their own pipeline? If they wanted to shutoff gas, thats just a turn of a valve. Russia looses massive leverage by no longer being able to deliver gas, even if they wanted to. Prior to this, if the public got cold enough, they could tell their government "forget Ukraine, we need gas. Go agree to get it or we will vote you out ASAP". Now.... There's no po…
If they just turn a valve, they break contract. If they pipeline blows up, its force majeure. They can still pump gas using the other pipelines (yamal etc). But they will shut down all of them eventually. Why? Because they are past the point of no return.
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#539Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes... If you blow the enemy's, it is not a warning anymore, it's already an agression.
Quoted post unavailable.
We ban accounts that post like this, so please don't, regardless of how wrong another comment is or you feel it is.
If you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.
Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea
#540Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't understand why people here seem to think Russia is acting rationally. The fact they continue the invasion when losing is clearly irrational. They threaten mass nuclear bombardment of Europe nearly daily. I don't see any long term rationality in Putin's government in the slightest. There will be no salvaging the relationship between Germany and Russia for a long time unless Putin gets replaced, even during win…
Exaggerated threats is standard soviet negotiation and the current leadership of Russia are creatures of that culture of negotiation. Blowing up their own gas line makes no sense as it destroys any possible leverage. The only ones that have anything to gain is the US or other associated allies.