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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#421

Post by bArray »

jcranmer wrote: post #185
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

You've listed some stakeholders, but there may be more possibilities (assuming sabotage).

For example, it may benefit China to have their enemies fight, then offer assistance from the sidelines at a charge.

Another option is that an energy supplier competitor did it, knowing that it would send the price of their energy through the roof. Even a few million dollars to have a private submarine sabotage the competitor would result in massive returns, and it would be difficult to trace.

The point is, it's far too early to tell.

Regarding your specific rational:

> Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now.

I discount this on the basis of their capability and funding.

> NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries

It could be that a NATO Country (read: not EU) could want to see the collapse the EU. This would greatly benefit the US for example, as they would then be able to renegotiate all previous trade deals on favorable terms.

> Russia sabotage -- this isn't terribly rational for Russia, but Russia has been unwilling to pursue rational options for a while.

It wouldn't be, unless they have the ability to fix it easily.

> Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. Especially if it is a demonstration of Ukrainian cyberwarfare capabilities.

Cyberwarefare didn't rip a hole in a pipe. Cyberwarefare also didn't create an explosion. I would be also interested to know if Ukraine has any operations submarines right now - because where would they refuel for example?

> * Poor maintenance -- this strikes me as unlikely because NS1 is quite new infrastructure (2011), so it would have to be extremely substandard to have failed this quickly, and I believe most of the construction was done by European and not Russian firms, so I don't think that's at all plausible. But there may be some failure modes I'm not thinking of here.

Over 10 years even the best infrastructure could deteriorate with abuse. Bridges can collapse if not well maintained within this timescale, and the ocean is a much worse environment.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#422

Post by bamboozled »

ancorevard wrote: post #244

The most plain explanation is that this was simply a warning message from Russia. These two pipelines have no longer any value to them, nor to EU. However, what does have value are the numerous pipelines from Norway and other countries to EU. And this is where the real treat is. Russia has now shown it is willing to blow up infrastructure outside Ukraine. Russia is known to have carefully mapped out the gas pipelines…

Except now they’ve told everyone they’re coming, which would be stupid. If they were considering blowing up pipelines they wouldn’t tell anyone and ruin the element of surprise.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#423

Post by petre »

MasterYoda wrote: post #332
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

Gas prices had fallen back to the lowest levels in 3 months, but because of the sabotage, prices have gone up again because this has created uncertainty in the energy market. The kremlin wants to deliberately destabilize Europe and make it as difficult as possible with a big energy crisis, so support and aid to Ukraine falls. And its going bad for putin and his war now so he is also desperate, just look at the crazy…

I see Biden's talk as soft power rather than threats "they'll shut down NS2 themselves, we'll make sure of that". It's not like the previous administration hasn't warned Germany and the EU about NS1/2, Russian gas bad habits.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#425

Post by bamboozled »

everybodyknows wrote: post #339

It's in large part a warning -- there's no other explanation for the timing: > The turmoil came on the same day of the inauguration of a long-awaited pipeline that will bring Norwegian gas to Poland, which used to rely heavily on Russia for supplies. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gas-baltic-pipelines-leaks/32... A single torpedo could sever the Pole's new energy supply.

So just take on the whole of Europe for fun ?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#426

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

vintermann wrote: post #402
scyzoryk_xyz wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have indeed been hating NS since the first pipeline was planned and opened. The reason for it's very existence has always been to squeeze us out of the picture. However, it would be an enormous risk for us to alienate NATO in any way. NATO is our only protection and we know it. Without NATO we are extremely easy to conquer - Stalin made sure of that when he drew our current borders. My money would be on a more ext…

That's an interesting possibility I hadn't thought of. Can a faction really blow up an undersea pipeline in three places at once, though?

I don't know. It would depend on the depth, but not even that necessarily. Now those pipes are no thin drinking straw, but think of what a bundle of fragmenting hand grenades could do. Packed watertight, with ballast, if need be. Downed from some trawler, yacht, whatever with good sonar to see where exactly, combined with with some contraption, maybe mechanical timer and CO2-cartridge blowing up a balloon which is pulling their pins. Or something more professional, which some rogue Spetsnaz surely would have access to?

Same delivery method, no divers needed. Could be almost anyone.

(shrug)

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#428

Post by christkv »

throwrqX wrote: post #385
pphysch wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. That's frankly absurd. Russia almost certainly sabotaged a LNG terminal in Texas a few months ago (industrial cyberattack). This act was almost certainly done by Washington or their proxies. It drives the wedge fu…

I don't understand why people here seem to think Russia is acting rationally. The fact they continue the invasion when losing is clearly irrational. They threaten mass nuclear bombardment of Europe nearly daily. I don't see any long term rationality in Putin's government in the slightest. There will be no salvaging the relationship between Germany and Russia for a long time unless Putin gets replaced, even during win…

Exaggerated threats is standard soviet negotiation and the current leadership of Russia are creatures of that culture of negotiation.

Blowing up their own gas line makes no sense as it destroys any possible leverage. The only ones that have anything to gain is the US or other associated allies.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#429

Post by pphysch »

throwrqX wrote: post #385
pphysch wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. That's frankly absurd. Russia almost certainly sabotaged a LNG terminal in Texas a few months ago (industrial cyberattack). This act was almost certainly done by Washington or their proxies. It drives the wedge fu…

I don't understand why people here seem to think Russia is acting rationally. The fact they continue the invasion when losing is clearly irrational. They threaten mass nuclear bombardment of Europe nearly daily. I don't see any long term rationality in Putin's government in the slightest. There will be no salvaging the relationship between Germany and Russia for a long time unless Putin gets replaced, even during win…

> I don't understand

Have you genuinely attempted to understand the Russian perspective in all this? Like listened to what Moscow has been saying for the last decade? Have you ever read a single one of Putin's speeches, for example?

Reading Anne Applebaum screeds in The Atlantic is not seeking understanding, by the way.

How can you understand something if you don't attempt to understand it?

> What evidence is there for this?

No smoking gun, just cui bono + timing + no other plausible explanation has been put forth

> On the contrary, should the EU find that the US was behind the explosions it would cause an absolute rift between the US-EU relationship, and in particular with Germany.

If Europe had strong leadership. Even Merkel didn't really stand up to the spying revelations.

The nuclear brinkmanship is textbook deterrence. Whenever Russia escalates, expect nuclear threats to deter a full-blown NATO entry.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#430

Post by dmix »

jefftk wrote: post #3

More details: Although neither was in operation, both pipelines [Nordstream 1 and 2] still contained gas under pressure. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the leaks were caused by sabotage, while his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen said it was “hard to imagine” they were a “coincidence”. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/sweden-issues-warni...

Whose country was the territory on?
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