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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#501

Post by jahnu »

yznovyak wrote: post #449
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

How long would it take to repair the pipelines? A few months? Feels like that would scupper this theory.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#502

Post by 5560675260 »

tablespoon wrote: post #367
ovalite wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similar to shooting down your own satellites.

>> Sort of like invading your own country, or shooting yourself with a gun would be an effective show of force? > Similar to shooting down your own satellites. No. When they do that as a show of force, they shoot down some worthless EOL satellite they don't plan to use ever again. IIRC, the US actually shot down one that was damaged and out of control: a show of force with a "safety" pretext. You don't shoot down val…

NS2 wasn't an "active" infrastructure, NS1 was also less than active since august.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#503

Post by dependsontheq »

Putin no longer sees this as an economic conflict, all decisions they have taken are against their economic interests, as is the war itself. They are currently killing the rest of their economy with mobilization for some south Ukrainian fields and destroyed towns. They stopped supplying gas and are running deficits at the same time. So assuming an economic motive is just wrong this has become a classic political conflict, the only use the Russian leadership has for an “economy” is as a political tool.

So this attack makes perfect sense, distrust in the West, confusion, no way back.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#504

Post by krisoft »

jupp0r wrote: post #141
krisoft wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point Pure speculation: A very hard winter is predicted with sky-high energy prices. If people, the economy and industry is suffering one can easily imagine that Germany wavers and opens up the taps. If the pipes are damaged and it will cost a lot to repair and restart the flow that supports those who want to keep the gas flow off and hinders those who wante…

> A very hard winter is predicted If you are implying that weather forecast is accurate months ahead - nobody knows what the temperatures will be this winter. Everything further ahead than 7 days is pretty much rolling the dice. https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/

> If you are implying that weather forecast is accurate months ahead

Nop. Hard as in a winter full of hardship, stress and problems.

> Everything further ahead than 7 days is pretty much rolling the dice.

And yet every winter it is cold here and every summer it is hot. Nobody can say which day will be sunny and which day will be stormy that far ahead, but clearly there are trends.

Cold combined with high energy prices will mean that a lot of people will go either cold, or poor or most likely both. Not so cold and so poor that everyone dies instantly, this is not a prequel to snowpiercer, but you know having a bad time.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#505

Post by phpthrowaway99 »

kbelder wrote: post #481
holoduke wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say the Ukrainians in cooperation with their biggest friends: the Polish government. It's in no interest for the Russians to destroy their own pipeline. They could as well just shut down the supply. I don't wanna speak to negative about Ukraine. But don't forget that the country belongs to the most corrupt and dirty countries in Europe. The state is controlled by oligarchs. In fact the Oligarchs brought the Z…

In my mind, the Ukrainians are the only party who could blow the pipelines without being dirty. It's a strategic asset of a country they're in an active war with.

And it's a great way to make the rest of Europe never give in to Russian no matter how much they suffer. If enough people in Europe saw their grandmother shivering in January, they might rise up and say hell with it, we need our gas back no matter what the cost somewhere else in eastern Europe. But now they can't say that because it won't get the gas turned back on anyway.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#506

Post by libertine »

phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #495
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on. If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

>Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on.

That boat has sailed some time ago - you don't need to destroy something that's guaranteed it won't be used for decades probably, if ever again.

No country in the West will do any trade with Russia under Putin. There's simply no turning back when you throw diplomacy and international laws out the window, and hide under nuclear threat.

In my point of view this was clearly a message that ANY gas that passes through that sea might have the same faith - even in NATO territory.

It wasn't by chance that it happened the same day a new gas pipe was opened between Norway and Poland: https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-polan...

Not to mention that if anyone wants to PUSH GAS PRICES UP, this is a great way to spread panic in the markets "oh no!!! that door wont open again!!!".

I only see positives to Russia in this event, not a single positive for anyone else.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#507

Post by aredox »

phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #495
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on. Now if the pipelines are destroyed, no matter how cold and angry citizens in the EU get, EU leadership has no reason to give in to Russian since that now won't get the gas turned back on. If anything, this points to Ukraine or the US doing it.

Yes, Ukraine's famous Baltic sea combat divers.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#508

Post by ilc »

hendrikrassmann wrote: post #436
twawaaay wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you realise the risks US would be taking? Like the end of NATO? I don't want to say US isn't making stupid things, but this would be a whole new level of stupid...

1. I'm not saying the US did it. 2. I just want to remind you, that you're talking about a country literally renaming their national dish to "freedom fries" over France not wanting to join in a war, started under provably false pretenses.

As a US Citizen. I laughed at "Freedom Fries" as did many I know.

The US is not homogeneous or even close.

As an example:

I remember warning people when visiting over seas: Trump is many things. Stupid is not one.

I stand by that statement. I don't agree with the man. But I will never mistake him for a total fool. Did he mis-calcuate. Thankfully, so far yes. But 2024+ will tell the truth on that, alas.

Many in the US consider Trump a fool. I do not.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#509

Post by aredox »

gnull wrote: post #458
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

Blow up your own pipelines to warn someone else?

Yes... If you blow the enemy's, it is not a warning anymore, it's already an agression.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#510

Post by aredox »

0x457 wrote: post #491
aredox wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in Russia's interest: this is their last warning before the North Sea pipelines blow up too.

Remove its only leverage is in Russia's interest? Until now, there was a possibility that EU get tired and get bend over. Now that possibility is gone.

There are other pipelines - and boats.

Norway is in high alert right now. Can you guess why? https://mobile.twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/157479814778362...

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