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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#401

Post by throwrqX »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #164
dongobongo wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

On the other hand, this now means freezing europe and a lot of money for USA, against european peoples interests... especially for people who don't really care about ukraine, as they didn't care about afghanistan, syria, libya etc., and just want a nice life for themselves (so, most people).

No this does not mean Europe will freeze, and honestly this was never going to happen. Worst case is lots of companies will fail. See: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/europe-is...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#402

Post by vintermann »

scyzoryk_xyz wrote: post #364
Tomte wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. That would be a tragic miscalculation. If it comes out that Ukraine is responsible, German public sentiment will turn hard . No more military shipments, maybe even rapproachement with Russia. If it's a state actor, I'd think about Poland first.

We have indeed been hating NS since the first pipeline was planned and opened. The reason for it's very existence has always been to squeeze us out of the picture. However, it would be an enormous risk for us to alienate NATO in any way. NATO is our only protection and we know it. Without NATO we are extremely easy to conquer - Stalin made sure of that when he drew our current borders. My money would be on a more ext…

That's an interesting possibility I hadn't thought of. Can a faction really blow up an undersea pipeline in three places at once, though?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#403

Post by dmix »

SanjayMehta wrote: post #309
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

You left out the obvious culprit. Jump to 1:20. https://youtu.be/OS4O8rGRLf8

The US is close friends with many of the consumers of those gas lines. That makes as little sense as all the other options but even less so.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#404

Post by throwrqX »

dongobongo wrote: post #129
brightball wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

> end of war

The vast majority of weapons and support to Ukraine is coming from the US, Britain and Eastern European countries, not Western ones. Even if Germany and France started taking in gas from Russia it would only marginally affect the amount of support coming in for Ukraine and certainly wouldn't come even close to ending the war. The energy catastrophe is unlikely to happen too beyond what is already happening (ie companies having to shutdown due to high energy prices). See: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/europe-is...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#405

Post by vintermann »

sampo wrote: post #346
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

> Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. If you include the risk of getting caught or revealed (and you should), it would absolutely make no sense.

It's always risky to assume people are rational. People are really good at discounting the "this could fail" outcome.

However, I don't think Ukraine has the capability to pull this off.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#406

Post by vintermann »

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK wrote: post #362
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

* Ukrainian or Baltic non-government group. On one hand, it achieves the desired outcome - reduce Russia's income, on the other hand, Germans can't blame Ukrainian government for that.

Baltic, maybe, but very unlikely I think. It's too hard for a small group to pull off without getting discovered.

Ukraine is a long way from the Baltic and very busy getting invaded, so I think the chance of them pulling off something like this without US knowledge is practically zero.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#407

Post by vintermann »

temp-dude-87844 wrote: post #331
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

If you subscribe to the point of view that Russia's war on Ukraine isn't actually about Ukraine, but about causing lasting pain in Europe, then this action is perfectly rational for Russia. It drives the market prices up (anything that spooks market participants will), and creates an ongoing situation that adds pressure on governments to act.

Except that the way Russia wants them to act - "give us concessions and buy our gas" is equally closed off by it.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#408

Post by trasz »

kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

I’d be _immensely_ proud if it was Poland.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#409

Post by throwrqX »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #203
xyzzyz wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine invasion showed that Russia really doesn’t need much in a way of excuse to start a war. I don’t understand why people talk about “casus beli” as if life today was Europa Universalis game. When power want to start a war, they do.

A couple of years of ukranians shelling the prorussian regions were a good enough reason.... considering that nato used the same one to bomb serbia in 1999.

Any evidence for genocides of pro-Russian populations in Donbas similar to Serbia's of Albanians?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#410

Post by [deleted] »

origin_path wrote: post #350
throwaway4good wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(Assuming it would not be beneath the US or proxies to do such a thing.) It would not make sense right now. Germany was nowhere reopening Nordstream 2 and if it came to that the US would have other effective means of blocking its use before reaching to outright sabotage.

What other effective means? The USA already imposed direct sanctions on Germany to try and stop Nord Stream 2 from being built, a very hostile move that supposedly resulted in 'incomprehension' in the German Foreign Office. It didn't work. Nowhere near (re-)opening: we don't really know this. The Greens are loud and extreme (saying they don't care how much pain Germans suffer) but we don't know what's going on behind…

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