221–230 of 1001 posts
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EU and the USA have no interest to provoke methane leaks, as it is a very highly greenhouse effect gas. Putin, on the other hand, does not care.
In current situation greenhouse effect is probably at the bottom of everybody priority list.
/s but not really...
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Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…
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Pipes can be repaired. Russia has been slowing down supplies through the NS1 pipe -- down to 1/10th of Germany's normal supply before halting. [1] [2] Blowing up a pipe that can be repaired to cause friction between allies? That's priceless. The fact that it's cause for speculation on Facebook, Reddit, HN, Twitter, etc shows exactly how disruptive of a move it was. [1] https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/a-…
The begging back theory doesn't make sense. Sowing discontent and suspicion between allies right when some of them are electing Russia-frendly government has more merit. It would be interesting to watch this evolving, if it wasn't fucking scary.
What's wrong with that? I mean... we're either a democracy, and people choose their own government, or we're being governed by some other external force not obeying the wishes of the people.... if italy choses to be friendly with the russians, their people wanted that, so why not?
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> Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe. Does this not give them even more leverage over Europe? There's no longer simply a switch that Russia can flip to resume the flow of gas into Europe and previously only Nordstream 1 was shut down (please correct me if I'm wrong). It's not so hard to imagine tactics to compel Russia to flip a switch, but repairing these pi…
Nah, it's quite the opposite. It's getting cold now, there are internal pressures in many EU countries to fuck this war and sit down with putin and make an agreement so russia can reopen the gas lines. Putin knows that, and probably has a list of conditions ready to reopen them. If the pipes are destroyed, even if people protest, there's no way to get russian gas again (atleast not fast and cheaply), and no incentive…
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Russia doesn't really stand to gain here. Ukraine and the United States stand to gain the most by removing the option for Europe to capitulate to Russia this winter. Ukraine isn't on the Baltic Sea, but do they need to be? Honestly, I don't know the resources that would be required to accomplish this. Would some special forces with diving equipment and a fishing boat be enough?
The biggest gain is for Russia, remember the long "repair" of NS1? Blocking the filling of gas reserves in Western Europe? Repair here, sabotage there and bam Germany has less gas for winter.
Germany has an option to talk with russia to make a deal, so russia reopens the valve... some other forces don't want that.
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The Russians blew up their own brand-new pipeline, which they spend billions creating (jointly with the Germans) and is one of the few major "hopes" to salvage that relationship, especially as winter dawns. That's frankly absurd. Russia almost certainly sabotaged a LNG terminal in Texas a few months ago (industrial cyberattack). This act was almost certainly done by Washington or their proxies. It drives the wedge fu…
> That's frankly absurd. The notion that NS2 would enter operation is absurd. NS2 has been dead in the water for months, and the prospect of entering service have been dubious for some time before the Russians invaded Ukraine.
"NS2 shouldn't exist" is a narrative manufactured in Washington (and delivered to Germany by Baerbock), that goes against basic economics and the interests of both Germans and Russians.
[1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-won...
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Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?
Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy mar…
Then again, Russia might not have the monopoly on stupidity.
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In current situation greenhouse effect is probably at the bottom of everybody priority list.
Not at all. EU has been adamant that this was not the good time to go all-coal for example. They could have done just that but no, the whole population and the politics are against (except in a few illiberal "democracies"). Even in the US there is a lot of work done recently to patch the methane leaks in gas fields, for example, which have been spotted as big emitters (by negligence or lack of enforcement).
This sounds like a business sustainability decision rather than out of concern for the environment.
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Not every theory about conspiracy is a conspiracy theory. Fixed version: > The theory is that either the United States or some member of NATO conspired and sabotaged the pipeline so that Germany will not have the option of easing up on sanctions in order to purchase Russian Gas this winter.
Even the German government might have done it in a "burn the boats" strategy. I don't think Russia had interests in doing it, unless it is for some internal power play. edit: or plausible denial when they won't send gas to Europe this winter. But do they even need the deniability at this point?