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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#151

Post by ericmay »

fuoqi wrote: post #123
brightball wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?

Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany).

  Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand.
  US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway.
  These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway
  The US would prefer energy markets to be stable and not have sky-high prices
  Russia's invasion of Ukraine was one of the greatest foreign policy gifts in United States history and it significantly strengthened US alliances across the globe and put the entire west in lockstep with each other with regards to Russia and China. Placing that gift at risk is beyond foolish.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#152

Post by bilbo0s »

dongobongo wrote: post #99
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)

Let's hope no NATO ally would be fool hardy enough to take this action.

I'm uncomfortable with light hearted talk about the US and NATO being involved in this. Clearly people speaking so cavalierly about that possibility do not understand the implications of such an act in the alliance system. The purpose of an alliance is not to surprise your partners. It's to ensure your partners are not surprised.

On a completely unrelated note: /s

Brazil, South Africa, Kenya and Ghana. Property markets had been a little crazy as they are everywhere. I didn't think there was much upside in these markets, but I'm starting to see that perhaps these might be good places for long term residential investment afterall?

Probably offer some moderate but steady returns as the insurance policies of the rats, and enormous returns as the most likely places the rats would run if things nosedive. Now I understand the USD4 million condos in Nairobi.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#153

Post by twawaaay »

fuoqi wrote: post #123
brightball wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?

Do you realise the risks US would be taking? Like the end of NATO?

I don't want to say US isn't making stupid things, but this would be a whole new level of stupid...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#154

Post by NeverFade »

eloff wrote: post #113
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

> The next question is, who did it?

The Russians.

> It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational.

Once their invasion faltered, and with the recent escalation, they had no hope of that happening. The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume operations. You don't come back from nuclear threats and committing massive massacres on this scale.

The next regime might be able to repair relations, but the current regime doesn't care about that: they'll be dead or imprisoned for life before any new regime can take over.

This is the Russian regime's way of abandoning the project while causing the worst possible damage to the hated Europeans who are supporting Ukraine against their illegal, atrocious invasion.

> That's an intriguing mystery.

Nope. Clearly the Russians.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#155

Post by gpderetta »

mmastrac wrote: post #57
krisoft wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They know that Germany is off Russian gas and they want to give them as much pain as possible so they come begging back. Okay, but how would this particular act accomplish that? Those pipes are the means Russia would be serving the german market after "they come begging back". If Russia wants to starve Germany of gas they can just simply not pump it in the pipe. That simple. No need to blow up their own infra for t…

Pipes can be repaired. Russia has been slowing down supplies through the NS1 pipe -- down to 1/10th of Germany's normal supply before halting. [1] [2] Blowing up a pipe that can be repaired to cause friction between allies? That's priceless. The fact that it's cause for speculation on Facebook, Reddit, HN, Twitter, etc shows exactly how disruptive of a move it was. [1] https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/a-…

The begging back theory doesn't make sense. Sowing discontent and suspicion between allies right when some of them are electing Russia-frendly government has more merit.

It would be interesting to watch this evolving, if it wasn't fucking scary.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#156

Post by seren »

bskan wrote: post #21

Now realistically how much time would it take to fix something like this?

If it is fixable, I am not sure how you can make sure it does not happen again. I am not sure how you are supposed to survey hundreds of kilometers of underwater pipeline.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#157

Post by jupp0r »

tut-urut-utut wrote: post #26
guerrilla wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point would depend on who did it. If it was the US, then it was to keep their promise to shut down NS1/2 but after Germany had topped up[1][2]. If it was Russia, then the point is to increase prices by creating volatility through insecurity and to make a threat (they have other pipelines like Yamal that are still running.[3]) If it was some other gas-exporting country (seems unlikely), then likewise, to spike pri…

Why forget the obvious, Ukraine? They already showed they are capable of doing terrorist actions on Russian territory while keeping silent about it. Baltic pipeline would be a children play for them, since an army can't protect it. Their enemy will not be able to sell gas to Europe without going through what is left of Ukraine. Since Poland stopped Jamal, they can basically dictate transit price and let Russia financ…

> Why forget the obvious, Ukraine?

Because Ukraine has no submarines and they don't have access to the Baltic Sea even if they had any?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#158

Post by percevalve »

netsharc wrote: post #137
eloff wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

Maybe the Russian military has some factions, and a faction is thinking surrender. Destroying the pipelines would advantage the faction against surrender, because then the surrenderists would be weaker, since they have less to offer to the EU. Which faction Putin would belong to is a different area of speculation. Or it's really Putin's way of saying "I'm not bluffing, in fact, here's how serious I am, see these pipe…

Reading that the Norway-Poland pipeline just happened to open today... Sounds like a loud a clear message to me, along the lines of "Gas pipeline seems to be very fragile around here, let's just hope nothing happens to yours".

If you add factions into the mix, I would say that this might be what makes the most sense.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-polan...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#159

Post by 1ris »

dongobongo wrote: post #129
brightball wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

That's not right, this is isn't even wrong.

German policy has always been that this pipeline is a stranded assert once russia shuts it down.

Keeping this as a lever and credible threat is vastly important for maintaining a somewhat secure supply of gasoline for east germany. When speaking about a energy catastrophe you really, really want this pipeline shut.

In fact germany has taken measures to make sure that the pipelines will not become operational again. Confiscating and removing compressors and reuse them for the planned LNG terminals.

If anybody profits from these explosions, it's germany.

And russian natural gas revenues hit ground and are now searching for oil themselfs, now.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#160

Post by butthatsit »

FollowingTheDao wrote: post #80
butthatsit wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that exactly from their playbook? I mean the neofascist book by Dugin about pseudo-geopolitics that they made required reading at the military universities. "Foundation of Geopolitics" is the name.

This is every nation states playbook.

No, it's not. My state never tried to do anything even remotely like what's described as standard practice in the book (and what's provably being done by them here).
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