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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#131

Post by kstenerud »

howmayiannoyyou wrote: post #116
kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

Not Poland. Not any country with a pipeline that can be similarly retaliated against. There is disagreement, conflict even, between Putin and his energy sector. Effectively destroying these pipelines is a pure-Putin way of reminding disgruntled Russian elite whose still in-charge. If not Putin, the UK, who desperately wants Germany to confront Russia, free of hopes not doing so will magically open NS1 or NS2.

Damaging the pipeline destroys a major source of Russian leverage against Germany. And now that they're desperate enough to play the nuclear card with a "this is not a bluff" chaser, it's pretty obvious that they need all the leverage they can get.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#132

Post by Tade0 »

kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

As a Pole, you're giving our elected representatives and secret services/special forces too much credit.

Especially the latter were gutted by this government in its current and previous(2005-2007) incarnation under the guise of "decommunization" and replaced with people without the, to put it lightly, necessary qualifications.

I mean, quite a few government motorcades got into accidents because the poor fool behind the wheel wasn't a professional.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#133

Post by toss1 »

Sebb767 wrote: post #22
lysp wrote: post #17

I wonder who RUptured it?

> RUptured Hard to believe, they have nothing to gain from this.

Russia has a LOT to gain from this.

1) They are running out of time on this war of aggression, and this will force gas price action NOW, not in December. They can sell gas through other pipelines to the EU if it accepts it.

2) Norway just TODAY inaugurated a new pipeline to the EU. Norway has warned about unaccounted-for drone activity around it's oil and gas fields. Russia is likely sending a message: "Nice pipeline you have there - it's be a shame if something happened to it".

3) Russia has favorable actors planted in just about every western democracy, and some of them are already tweeting accusations against the US. As long as the Russians can keep suspicion off of them with reasoning like "what motive do they have?" and "somebody else must have done it", it works very much to their advantage in undermining opposition to their war of aggression.

In contrast, this is the last thing the administrations in the US or Germany need. They need stability and moderation of gas prices. Their methods are not to create chaos and try to take advantage. That is Russia's standard modus operandi.

So, yes, Russia has the biggest motives of anyone. They also have the means with extensive submarine capabilities, and ports on the Baltic Sea.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#134

Post by ed_balls »

dongobongo wrote: post #99
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)

Similar thing has happened on USA soil (Gas Terminal explosion)

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#135

Post by nkingsy »

vbezhenar wrote: post #91
fuoqi wrote: post #79

Quoted post unavailable.

Quoted post unavailable.

Nice find!

Was talking to a trumper who was blaming the invasion on the US having a weak president.

Seems like the opposite if anything. Biden quarterbacked the maidan coup. Seeing him become president probably wasn’t a happy moment for Putin.

Edit: these things are censored in google, Wikipedia etc by US state actors. We largely have to go on the words of people like Max Blumenthal and others who have been largely censored and scrubbed from easy access by these same state apparatuses or wait until foia requests reveal what they always reveal about our benevolent state.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#136

Post by jcranmer »

dongobongo wrote: post #129
brightball wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

That's not recently, that's 2022-02-07, nearly 8 months ago, and before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#137

Post by netsharc »

eloff wrote: post #113
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to b…

Maybe the Russian military has some factions, and a faction is thinking surrender. Destroying the pipelines would advantage the faction against surrender, because then the surrenderists would be weaker, since they have less to offer to the EU. Which faction Putin would belong to is a different area of speculation.

Or it's really Putin's way of saying "I'm not bluffing, in fact, here's how serious I am, see these pipes for that possible future gas sale?". If he really is destroying something that could make him money in the future, maybe he's really in an "If I can't win then let me flip the board" mood. Which I'd extrapolate to him being in a "Get the nukes warmed up" mood.

I wonder what discussion inside the intelligence community is like currently. It'd be amazing. Maybe watch what the senators connected to the intelligence committee are buying/selling.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#138

Post by dongobongo »

dongobongo wrote: post #129
brightball wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the US do that?

If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

oops thought it was July...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#140

Post by pelorat »

kstenerud wrote: post #90

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

I'm sure you have heard about these technical problems Russia is having with the terminal on their side, the technical problems they claim are behind the reason the gas is turned off? Well it's not really technical problems, it's "technical problems" because otherwise the shut off would have been contact violations. This is no different, now they can keep the gas off without violating international trade law.
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