Live data from Hacker News

Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

forsvaret.dk

121–130 of 1001 posts

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#121
post #11
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've only thought about it for a minute- but I might speculate that it is a signal from Russia- "even if we decide we want to turn the gas back on, you might not be able to get it when you want it."

Dear Russia Thanks for confirming so clearly that you are an untrustworthy and manipulative partner. Best, -The Rest of Europe.

No post body was provided.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#125
post #115

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Poland. The Polish prime minister immediately called "sabotage" and fingered Russia, while everyone else is still saying "it could be sabotage but we need to investigate first". Russia wants the taps capable of being turned ON at their discretion, not permanently broken. This hurts their bargaining position in a big way because they've just lost their biggest source of lev…

> Russia wants the taps ON, not off. Russia unilaterally turned the taps OFF repeatedly in the last months to keep Germany from meaningfully supporting Ukraine.

Russia turned the taps off in order to raise pressure for European concessions in order to turn them back on again. Germany has been tepid in its Ukrainian support because they want to have their cake and eat it, too. Now they can't no matter what.

With the pipes permanently broken (at least for this winter), Russia has lost that leverage.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#126
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody in Germany are blaming "Ukrainian sabotage". Many are hinting at Russia and some individual AfD politicians on twitter are blaming the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany

Are you saying the following article does not exist? https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/erste-detonation-an-n... Google translate: >With regard to the authorship of the alleged attacks, two main options are being discussed. First, according to initial speculation, Ukrainian or Ukraine-affiliated forces could be responsible.

"are being discussed". By whom exactly? It's not attributed to a quote or anybody. But a random unsourced sentence in one article somehow reflects everything "the Germans" are saying, over, you know, the entirety of public discourse available?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#127
post #3

More details: Although neither was in operation, both pipelines [Nordstream 1 and 2] still contained gas under pressure. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the leaks were caused by sabotage, while his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen said it was “hard to imagine” they were a “coincidence”. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/sweden-issues-warni...

Sabotage makes sense, but by whom? Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe. Without the pipelines, the whole "you lift the sanctions, we deliver natural gas" game is gone. Even if unlikely to happen, it would have been an important psychological and political factor over the winter. Meanwhile European powers don't seem to have an incentive. They would benefit from…

I think it actually was Russia because Russia has really reliably misjudged its position and resources. I see no reason to think they wouldn’t do this self-destructive thing when they’ve done so many other self-destructive things.

The videos coming out of the conscription paint a fairly incredible picture.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#128
The US is working hard to keep a coalition of NATO countries together (for instance, avoiding secondary sanctions that EU generally thinks are extra-judicial). I don’t believe Germany would agree with this course of action and if the US unilaterally did it it would severely risk the strategic goal of a Ukrainian victory.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)

Why would the US do that?

If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests.

See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#130
post #3

More details: Although neither was in operation, both pipelines [Nordstream 1 and 2] still contained gas under pressure. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the leaks were caused by sabotage, while his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen said it was “hard to imagine” they were a “coincidence”. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/sweden-issues-warni...

Sabotage makes sense, but by whom? Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe. Without the pipelines, the whole "you lift the sanctions, we deliver natural gas" game is gone. Even if unlikely to happen, it would have been an important psychological and political factor over the winter. Meanwhile European powers don't seem to have an incentive. They would benefit from…

Russia may have done it simply out of spite

(The earthquake theory might also, ahem, hold some water but I'd say it's less likely)

Post reply on HN