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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#11

Post by tomrod »

mech987 wrote: post #5
cm2187 wrote: post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

I've only thought about it for a minute- but I might speculate that it is a signal from Russia- "even if we decide we want to turn the gas back on, you might not be able to get it when you want it."

    Dear Russia


    Thanks for confirming so clearly that you are an untrustworthy and manipulative partner. 


    Best,
    -The Rest of Europe.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#12

Post by themgt »

The resident hawk at National Review is already doing a touchdown dance. "Who Will Rid Me of This Meddlesome Pipeline?"

Three leaks in two days? Wow, that’s a shame! Sounds like the pipeline’s falling apart and just won’t be a reliable way to get natural gas from Russia to Germany. I guess hopes of Germany and Russia eventually putting aside their differences over the invasion of Ukraine, and reestablishing long-term German dependence on Russian energy, just won’t happen for the foreseeable future. Just terrible luck for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, who clearly thought a cold winter with limited energy supplies would make Germany and other European countries come crawling back to the negotiating table.

Just about anyone could have cut the pipeline, but whoever it was, they wanted to make sure the Nord Stream pipelines would not be an option for a long time.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/who-will-rid-me-of-thi...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#13

Post by krisoft »

cm2187 wrote: post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

> I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point

Pure speculation: A very hard winter is predicted with sky-high energy prices. If people, the economy and industry is suffering one can easily imagine that Germany wavers and opens up the taps. If the pipes are damaged and it will cost a lot to repair and restart the flow that supports those who want to keep the gas flow off and hinders those who wanted to restart it.

> surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines

I would agree with that. Hard to imagine what would be their point in doing that.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#14

Post by detritus »

cm2187 wrote: post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

One reason I could imagine Russia herself would do this is because they might assume Nordstream is now an essentially obsolete asset, so has more value in their ability to demonstrate the fragility of OTHER gas pipelines, including the one inaugurated this very day between Norway and Poland.

ed: https://twitter.com/ASabadus/status/1574729027570769920

Also, Apparently Norway has recently warned about drone activity near hydrocarbon rigs: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-oil-safety-re...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#15

Post by tut-urut-utut »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #9
cm2187 wrote: post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

The conspiracy theory is that either the United States or some member of NATO sabotaged the pipeline so that Germany will not have the option of easing up on sanctions in order to purchase Russian Gas this winter.

Not every theory about conspiracy is a conspiracy theory.

Fixed version:

> The theory is that either the United States or some member of NATO conspired and sabotaged the pipeline so that Germany will not have the option of easing up on sanctions in order to purchase Russian Gas this winter.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#16

Post by guerrilla »

cm2187 wrote: post #10
guerrilla wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point would depend on who did it. If it was the US, then it was to keep their promise to shut down NS1/2 but after Germany had topped up[1][2]. If it was Russia, then the point is to increase prices by creating volatility through insecurity and to make a threat (they have other pipelines like Yamal that are still running.[3]) If it was some other gas-exporting country (seems unlikely), then likewise, to spike pri…

I would think the US would be more subtle than two simultaneous leaks. That looks like an actor who doesn’t care about being identified.

Why would the US care if they were seen as doing it when they already announced that they were going to do it[1]?

1. https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#19

Post by mmastrac »

krisoft wrote: post #13
cm2187 wrote: post #4

I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point, surely russia wouldn’t sabotage their own pipelines (they can just shut them) and I understand they are not in use right now. In fact doesn’t that mean that the pipeline will be flooded? Is that recoverable?

> I read talks of sabotage but I struggle to understand the point Pure speculation: A very hard winter is predicted with sky-high energy prices. If people, the economy and industry is suffering one can easily imagine that Germany wavers and opens up the taps. If the pipes are damaged and it will cost a lot to repair and restart the flow that supports those who want to keep the gas flow off and hinders those who wante…

That's a very Putin-esque thing to do. They know that Germany is off Russian gas and they want to give them as much pain as possible so they come begging back.

The question is whether they trigger article 5 here -- I suspect not, however.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#20

Post by wongarsu »

jefftk wrote: post #3

More details: Although neither was in operation, both pipelines [Nordstream 1 and 2] still contained gas under pressure. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the leaks were caused by sabotage, while his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen said it was “hard to imagine” they were a “coincidence”. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/sweden-issues-warni...

Sabotage makes sense, but by whom?

Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe. Without the pipelines, the whole "you lift the sanctions, we deliver natural gas" game is gone. Even if unlikely to happen, it would have been an important psychological and political factor over the winter.

Meanwhile European powers don't seem to have an incentive. They would benefit from having Russia as part of their gas supply once the war is over. Sure, having the option not to buy from them is nice, but why force that? Competition lowers prices after all.

Ukraine has a motive to hurt Russia and prevent Russian gas exports, but that would also bite the hand that feeds them weapons. Not to mention they don't have a presence in the Baltic and are occupied on other fronts.

That would leave Europe's non-Russian suppliers of natural gas: Norway and the US.

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