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Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

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Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> co2 emissions The ironic thing is that some of the earth's most fertile periods were associated with high levels of co2. Because co2 reduces plant need for water, reduces desertification, and massively increases the food supply. Given that solar power beaming is technologically feasible and practical, it is likely that the future will not be power limited like we are today.

The ideal setup is probably CO2 levels quite a bit higher than today’s, but with a sunshade filtering out UV-B wavelengths. All of earth would be habitable, but without major weather swings.

Ideal for plants is bad for us.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#102
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false. There are resource limits, unfortunately (I guess?). Thermodynamics is a hard limit. There are many soft limits as well. Please look at this paper for an incredibly well researched physics-based review: (to appear in Nature Physics) https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/papers/limits-econ-final.pd...

Of course if you assume continued exponential growth you will run into limits. The correct response to that is to not assume continued exponential growth indefinitely, since in the real world that never happens. In actual real world systems, the growth curve is sigmoidal: it starts out with exponential growth, becomes linear, then asymptotically flattens as system constraints are approached. This is already happening…

The exponential growth of neutron flux in a detonating nuke may be overwhelmed by a different function as the pieces fly apart, but I wouldn't want to be part of that even allowing for it being a metaphor.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#103
post #97

Similar things were predicted in the 70s but new sources of energy and improvements in productivity invalidated those predictions. Obviously at some point limits will kick in (unless we can expand to other planets) but what to do about that is more of a political question than a scientific one. I personally think it is more appealing to attempt expanding the limits, as we've done in the past, than to pre-emptively ad…

Would law of physics kick in ? If it takes thousands of years to produce oil/gas/coal, and months to extract and consume it... then what political solution do have ? My concern is that we might hit an energy crisis (Russia/Ukraine is just the tip of the iceberg). We need oil/gas/coal for everything around us (clothes, transportation, heat, cement, iron, energy). For energy we could use nuclear for baseline, and some…

and as far as I read nuclear fuel isn't endless either...

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#104
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> constant growth != infinite growth constant growth just means converging growth if the population is shrinking all we need to do is increase gdp per capita. In theory. In practice GDP growth is strongly correlated with things like energy use and waste/pollution generation. There will come a point when either that correlation has to be broken or growth has to halt.

While GDP growth has historically been strongly correlated with energy use and pollution (including CO2/greenhouse gas emissions), due to the switch to service and digital economy, in rich countries GDP growth has become decoupled from energy use for a few decades already, already before year 2000. The correlation is already broken, and it seems quite plausible to continue GDP growth even with a decrease in energy us…

A different analysis here:

https://eeb.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Decoupling-Debunk...

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#105
post #70

The graph says it all and by the way similar graphs exist for lithium and all the rare earth elements to construct so called renewables.

We don't need rare earths to make renewables, we choose them because they are cheaper; and calling renewables "so called" in this context is a bit weird even though yes the sun will eventually die.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#106
post #98

I think the authors do a disservice to their cause with the inclusion of judgmental, emotional rhetoric such as sentences like: “ From this perspective, it seems likely that future generations will label the past two centuries as the Fossil Fuel Age rather than the Industrial Revolution—emphasizing the critical importance of a now-depleted resource over a self-flattering celebration of human innovation” It suggests t…

Care to elaborate the options?

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#107
post #36

I do think some of the concerns here are right on the nose > What can be done to minimize the chances of colossal failure or sub-systemic breakdown, which in the worst case could threaten preservation of science and human knowledge? It seems like the two extremes are degrowth and malthus on the one hand, and haughty denialist expansionism on the other. One is borderline eugenicist and denies billions of people of our…

In my opinion the issue with the balance here is that no matter where you fall on the "climate scale belief" (except probably the most extreme of deniers), people consider anyone that thinks a better future than you is coming will be labelled a denier, while anyone who thinks a worse future than you think is coming is given a soft pass as just having stronger convictions. That unfortunately leaves the vast majority of people being labelled as deniers from people with stronger beliefs, no matter where you fall.

I think the vast majority of people today do know that climate change is coming, that we are changing the weather at a global scale, etc. Actual true deniers that say human have no effect in global climate, IMHO, are so few that they are not even worth mentioning besides anecdote (at a similar level to flat-earth believers).

The issue then becomes, what level of climate change vs what level of sacrifice are we willing to accept? It seems clear that even with this question there are extremes that are likely unwanted, and there's probably another distribution going from two extremes: do absolutely nothing now and people will die later due to climate change, and the other extreme is sacrificing the prosperity of developed and developing countries now (which means people will continue dying at a rate too high) and have a minimal climate change effect later.

Both extremes are too extreme and seem wrong, and somewhere in the middle seems like the obvious, correct solution, but where exactly in the middle is the important question that not many people seem to be talking about and baffles me.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#108
post #98

I think the authors do a disservice to their cause with the inclusion of judgmental, emotional rhetoric such as sentences like: “ From this perspective, it seems likely that future generations will label the past two centuries as the Fossil Fuel Age rather than the Industrial Revolution—emphasizing the critical importance of a now-depleted resource over a self-flattering celebration of human innovation” It suggests t…

More importantly, it shows that they've been taken in by the Billions spent on propaganda to convince people that fossil fuels are necessary for modern society, and not an inefficient and polluting tech that we should be glad to move beyond with better alternatives.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#109
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When we do things such as “screening for down syndrome” [1], we are already actively engaged in a eugenics project, but we don’t think of it as one because it’s the kind of intentional genetic control we like. Historically, many cases of "eugenics" involved a lack of informed consent, even blatant coercion. That screening is entirely voluntary–you have the right to say "no", and I know couples who have (due to mora…

Yes this! Eugenics is only when someone else decides it for you.

it's not encoded in law, but we do have a society where who can have many children is determined by economic factors that are not fully under ones control.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#110
post #60

This kind of Malthusian thinking has a horrible track record. Imagine if we drastically altered the course of technological progress every time a cabal of "experts" declares that we're going to destroy the planet. I'm not arguing that we should be reckless with the environment, but there are massive existential risks to humanity with this kind of self-limiting belief system. It's not obvious that one side of the argu…

This whole paper is lazy, panic-ridden grift. Why lazy? Because it's core thesis is that fossil fuels are a natural constraint... The word "nuclear" does not appear a single time in the entire paper! We have more than enough carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, and nitrogen on this earth to do incredible things given an energy source. It's time to stop dooming and start exploring. Also, fuck Mars. Why not try to make the desert…

Energy source constraints are not the only ones that exist. We also extract many other things from the planet and transform them into other things that we use. These extractions/transformations are also very problematic, and subject to strong constraints. Examples:

* The clearing of forests for farmland for the ever increasing population and increased (unneeded) calorie consumption per person destroys ecosystems, and kills species.

* The growing of massive amounts of food extracts micronutrients from the soil, and these not replaced. This destroys the health of future generations.

* Cement and concrete are made by naturally occurring rocks and minerals, and these are also fast depleting. Mining for more difficult sources also result in pollution and destruction of ecosystems. Pollution also negatively impacts the health of current and future generations, and concrete cities destroy ecosystems.

* Plastics are made from fossil fuels. They break down into microplastics, and leach toxic chemicals into our food and water supplies.

All of these examples involve negative externalities shared by everyone in the world. All of these examples stem from fast and continued growth.

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