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Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

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Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#11

Post by StanislavPetrov »

>This age of modernity is characterized by consistent growth in energy use, economic activity, and resource consumption, and a generally increasing standard of living—albeit inequitably distributed.

This paper states this as though it is desirable and inevitable. There's no reason human society needs to keep expanding like a cancer or a virus. Sustainability is both possible and desirable. This isn't to suggest we shouldn't explore and/or colonize other worlds, but it is to suggest that constant growth is not intrinsically beneficial. Many of the most serious problems we face as a society are a direct result of overpopulation and "growth".

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#12

Post by shmageggy »

StanislavPetrov wrote: post #11

>This age of modernity is characterized by consistent growth in energy use, economic activity, and resource consumption, and a generally increasing standard of living—albeit inequitably distributed. This paper states this as though it is desirable and inevitable. There's no reason human society needs to keep expanding like a cancer or a virus. Sustainability is both possible and desirable. This isn't to suggest we sh…

> This paper states this as though it is desirable and inevitable.

No it doesn't? Two sentences later:

> But modernity has been enabled by the rapid and accelerating expenditure of our one-time inheritance of fossil fuels, and by drawing down the resources and ecosystems of our finite Earth—none of which can be sustained as we transition from a resource-rich frontier to a human-dominated planet.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#13

Post by throwawaylinux »

spullara wrote: post #9
Bakary wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't heading to extinction just on account of birthrates, it's the transition phase with a large number of elderly dependents and a small number of workers that is going to be the real problem.

Yeah, that will be a problem for sure. We will get a preview of it in Asia.

Despite all the fearmongering and wailing and gnashing of teeth, Japan is doing okay with a shrinking population.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#14

Post by giantg2 »

ericmcer wrote: post #8
Bakary wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't heading to extinction just on account of birthrates, it's the transition phase with a large number of elderly dependents and a small number of workers that is going to be the real problem.

Unless most work is intellectual/creative and most manual labor is automated or machine assisted 50 years from now. There are way more 70+ year olds still in the workforce currently than ever before and it isn't crazy to think retiring at 60 is a thing of the past.

Retirement for the masses is a relatively new, rich invention. It seems likely ar some point we will revert back to working until we become unable to work.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#15

Post by ihaveajob »

alexnewman wrote: post #6
ouid wrote: post #3

>infinite exponential growth which is impossible on a finite planet. its impossible in any space with non negative curvature. the kind of growth that is unsustainable in a finite region is any growth at all.

constant growth != infinite growth constant growth just means converging growth if the population is shrinking all we need to do is increase gdp per capita.

Zeno has entered the chat.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#Achilles_an...

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#17

Post by spullara »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #13
spullara wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that will be a problem for sure. We will get a preview of it in Asia.

Despite all the fearmongering and wailing and gnashing of teeth, Japan is doing okay with a shrinking population.

They have a long fall ahead of them.

https://www.ipss.go.jp/site-ad/index_english/esuikei/econ2.h...).

Going from 128m in 2010 to 87m in 2060.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#18

Post by ericmcer »

giantg2 wrote: post #14
ericmcer wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless most work is intellectual/creative and most manual labor is automated or machine assisted 50 years from now. There are way more 70+ year olds still in the workforce currently than ever before and it isn't crazy to think retiring at 60 is a thing of the past.

Retirement for the masses is a relatively new, rich invention. It seems likely ar some point we will revert back to working until we become unable to work.

Yeh the whole concept of putting in 20-30 years on the police force and then retiring with a 70% pension for the rest of your life seems… nuts.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#19

Post by hinkley »

ouid wrote: post #3

>infinite exponential growth which is impossible on a finite planet. its impossible in any space with non negative curvature. the kind of growth that is unsustainable in a finite region is any growth at all.

Part of the problem is people thinking, "myself and everyone I could ever have the notion of caring about, and everyone they could ever have a notion of caring about" is the same thing as infinity.

The universe is so goddamned big that it's hard to fathom how long it would take us to actually ruin the entire thing, or at least the parts that aren't flying away from us at faster than the speed of light. But 5% annual growth for a billion years eats up a ridiculous amount of real estate.

Re: Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: a PLAN for the future

#20

Post by throwawaylinux »

spullara wrote: post #17
throwawaylinux wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite all the fearmongering and wailing and gnashing of teeth, Japan is doing okay with a shrinking population.

They have a long fall ahead of them. https://www.ipss.go.jp/site-ad/index_english/esuikei/econ2.h... ). Going from 128m in 2010 to 87m in 2060.

And despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth, they'll probably continue do fine, as they have since their population leveled out 30 years ago.

The doomsday predictions haven't just started now, and they weren't only about events in 2060. They started decades ago about population growth slowing, population leveling, population dropping. They've been pretty consistently wrong.

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