President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia • Hacker News Board

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#311

Post by Fatnino » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:22 PM UTC

spywaregorilla wrote: post #184

sofixa wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter Oh it matters. More poorly trained and equipped cannon fodder means more dead and more prisoners. The influx of caskets into previously less impacted areas in Russia might start to impact the general population more - that's how the USSR had to pull out of Afghanistan.

Not quite. Russia has already lost several multiples of the total losses it experienced in Afghanistan as the USSR (many of which were Ukranian btw). The USSR had a lot more troops vs. Russia's current situation which is really a smaller peacetime army (pre mobilization). The reason they had to leave Afghanistan was it simply too expensive due to the cost and the sanctions and they couldn't afford to do it. Which IS…

Afghanistan didn't work for them because they couldn't hold territory after initially capturing it. I think there was one valley they had to conquer 3 times. Each time ended in what looked like a decisive victory but the moment they tried to draw down troops the Mujahideen would come flooding back out of the mountains and the USSR was back to square one.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#312

Post by koonsolo » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:24 PM UTC

rascul wrote: post #301

koonsolo wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is clearly not threatening "the territorial integrity of Russia", as Russia likes to call it. Because those planes get attacked over enemy territory.

What does that have to do with it? One military shooting down another military's aircraft is an act of war.

Clearly not: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_sh...

Russia did nothing, as usual.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#313

Post by Fatnino » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:28 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #197

spywaregorilla wrote: post #154

A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad s…

Another thing that could change the war could be North Korean men and/or Chinese material. Neither are likely, but both are possible and have been rumored.

North Korean men are very green too. The main thing they know to do is march in very neat lines.

Most have never fired a live round in their lives, even for training.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#314

Post by PoignardAzur » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:28 PM UTC

aizen89 wrote: post #284

It seems to me that the occupied regions of Ukraine are very vast and cannot be controlled by the number of Russian troops that they now have in Ukraine. Accordingly, more human resources are needed, so they want to close this gap with the help of this call (about 300 thousand soldiers).

Well good news then, the occupied regions of Ukraine just got smaller.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#315

Post by timeon » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #247

spywaregorilla wrote: post #154

A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad s…

Using nukes would be unlikely to go well for Russia. The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out so setting off a nuke would only take out a few and in response the west would probably do bad stuff to Russia, quite likely US non nuclear air strikes which could wipe out much of the Russian forces.

> The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out

It would be probably civilian target.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#316

Post by puglr » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:56 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #247

spywaregorilla wrote: post #154

A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad s…

Using nukes would be unlikely to go well for Russia. The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out so setting off a nuke would only take out a few and in response the west would probably do bad stuff to Russia, quite likely US non nuclear air strikes which could wipe out much of the Russian forces.

I would think just setting off a nuke in an uninhabited area / over the ocean / etc. would be enough to "change the calculus". A western nation providing direct support to Ukraine may be more cautious about future decisions and escalations.

Edit: Typos.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#317

Post by timeon » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 6:06 PM UTC

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #258

TillE wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're still not really saying what you mean in practical terms, but I assume that means ceding parts of Ukraine in a peace deal. This will never happen. The alternative isn't escalation, it's what we've seen to date: a long, grinding war.

It doesn’t necessarily mean ceding parts of Ukraine, no. There are plenty of things to be negotiated here: the lifting of economic sanctions, what happen to Crimea and the Black Sea port, how far will Ukraine integration into the EU go and how fast. I don’t understand what the USA is aiming for in Ukraine. The American media have generally been far more bellicist than they usually are for foreign regional conflicts s…

> how far will Ukraine integration into the EU

This should be only between Ukraine and EU.

Appeasement rarely works.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#318

Post by timeon » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 6:13 PM UTC

newaccount2021 wrote: post #15

scanny wrote: post #5

It’s hard to see where this ends; should things move toward weakening of the Russian government will he go without attempting to escalate his way out of domestic danger? I think mobilisation and moving toward declaring the special operation a war (more mobilisation) could be the beginnings of that slippery slope.

Putin is "committed" so to speak, so this is just following his current strategy through to its conclusion: force the West to give up on Ukraine or accept massive escalation. The fundamental question is - is NATO committed enough to the Ukraine cause to demolish Europe? Probably not. Everyone talking about Russia being "already defeated" knows little of the Russian capacity for misery. Napoleon learned the hard way.…

> knows little of the Russian capacity for misery. Napoleon learned the hard way...

AS far as I know Russians from Napoleon are no longer alive so not sure how this sentiment is relevant.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#319

Post by alkyon » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 6:22 PM UTC

azangru wrote: post #191

dandanua wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russians refer to Ukraine as a territory in their language by using preposition "на" instead of "в". They don't respect sovereignty of Ukraine in their language. "Ukraine" doesn't mean borderland, it's another Russian attitude with the aim to humiliate Ukrainian nation. You can also look at the map and see who is really a borderland of the civilized world.

> Russians refer to Ukraine as a territory in their language by using preposition "на" instead of "в". They don't respect sovereignty of Ukraine in their language. This is an old and complicated argument. The Russians have their language. In that language, for several centuries, probably as long as the word Ukraine existed in it, it was governed by the preposition "на". There are other Russian toponyms that are gover…

This is plainly not true. As a Polish native speaker I could observe the same old custom of relating to Ukraine/Belarus/Lithuania as a territory by using similar preposition "na" in Polish.

And yes, we also use "na" for islands (Cuba, Manhattan) but it's still deprecating.

What happened when your country invaded Ukraine was that practically from Day 1, everyone in Poland switched to "w Ukrainie" - a preposition used normally for the country.

Edit: "w Ukrainie" instead of "w" to make it more clear what I mean

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#320

Post by trhway » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 6:33 PM UTC

fellellor wrote: post #303

trhway wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We had fantastic experience with humiliated nations before. It worked so well for Germany after WW1 /s The mistake was corrected after WWII by splitting the country into occupation zones. That is the only way to deal with Russia too. Pushing out of Ukraine isn't enough. Russia has to be demilitarized, most importantly - denuclearized, it should lose its place in UN Security Council. It also should be denazified - t…

I hope, for the sake of the rest of humanity, all Euros (including Russians) aren’t a bunch of incredulously racist man-children as you are. Reading this would have been funnier had it not been for the behaviour we’ve seen this year.

racist? Are you seriously implying that the Allies were racist for them doing the same to Germany to cure it from Nazism?

>Reading this would have been funnier had it not been for the behaviour we’ve seen this year.

until this year i've never wrote nor even thought this way. Until Feb 24 i still believed in my Old Country having a chance at playing great positive role in the world - i still thought that the harsh authoritarianism of Putin regime is a phase that will pass with minimal damage say once he dies. I hadn't noticed how instead it became Russian Nazism, "Rashizm" as its known, though all the signs have clearly been there at least during recent few years. It became clear on the Feb 24 though, and the 7 months since then have been showing it more and more, that the Russian society deeply poisoned by Rashizm has lost its ability to even minimally responsibly manage the great power stemming from such a large country and nukes in particular, and thus they lost any right to such a power, and became a menace to the world that must be taken care about.