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‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

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Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#121

Post by 3vidence »

verteu wrote: post #75
danso wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is not "factually guilty". The cell tower ping evidence was basically all the "science" the state had against him, and it was the foundation for the constantly evolving and self-contradictory claims of the state's key witness, Jay Wilds. I don't know what Jay's deal is (seems very implausible that he was the murderer), but with the cell tower pings being all but useless for tracking location, then Jay's stories ar…

We can't just disregard Jay's testimony -- he led police to Hae's car. He discusses some inconsistencies here: https://theintercept.com/2014/12/29/exclusive-interview-jay-... Edit: A Reddit comment claims to identify more inconsistencies in the interview: https://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/comments/2xytci/comme...

I gotta do my due diligence and source this but I think there was a podcast called the "truth and justice podcast" that found a interview with the head of police before Jays testimony that said the police had located the vehicle and were withholding the location from the public at the time.

This means the police already knew about the whereabouts of Hae's car before Jay. This part gets slightly more conspiratorial but the police could have lead Jay to the car instead of the opposite.

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#122

Post by jibe »

mecha_ghidorah wrote: post #88
robga wrote: post #11

Serial was blowout success, but flawed in many ways. For me, chief amongst these is not updating the podcast with new (and potentially exculpatory) information as it came to light over the years. What really progressed the case was the Undisclosed podcast [0]. Rabia Chaudry, a childhood friend of Adnan and an attorney, first took Adnan's story to Sarah Koenig, who documented it in the Serial podcast. But in Undisclos…

I hated Serial so goddamn much. I honestly felt like it did a terrible job of establishing much reasonable doubt and it just sort of... ends? Would you still recommend Undisclosed?

No - it is much worse!

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#123

Post by ImprobableTruth »

peteradio wrote: post #94
ImprobableTruth wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20% said they would require 100% certainty, which is equivalent to stating that not even the most obviously guilty person in existence deserves to be convicted. I'd posit that this is more so evidence that the general population's knowledge of probability is abysmal.

Can you statistically evaluate such a thing? Its all black swan.

If you look at it in a bayesian way this is not an issue. "I can't put a number to it" would definitely be a legitimate answer, but "100%" is just wrong.

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#124

Post by ImprobableTruth »

ip26 wrote: post #97
ImprobableTruth wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20% said they would require 100% certainty, which is equivalent to stating that not even the most obviously guilty person in existence deserves to be convicted. I'd posit that this is more so evidence that the general population's knowledge of probability is abysmal.

Or their concept of “certainty” or “doubt” is different from yours.

I'm not even sure what that is really supposed to mean. If 100% precludes the potential of an event with infinitesimal likelihood (mass delusion, possession by ghosts, etc.), then as I said nobody ever gets convicted.

Otherwise, any "concept of certainty" that uses "100%" to refer to something that might not occur, is either gravely misusing mathematical notation or self-contradictory.

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#125

Post by xenadu02 »

warner25 wrote: post #59

I'm wondering if anyone here has real insight into the economics of his situation at this point. On one hand it seems like his life has been ruined by the state after spending 20+ years in prison, costing his family everything in legal fees, and forever being associated with this murder. I feel like anyone wrongfully convicted (or even just accused) should have some serious recourse but I suspect that there isn't any…

Restitution for a wrongful conviction varies dramatically on a state-by-state basis.

In some states you need a ruling of actual innocence by a court, not just vacation of conviction, to get compensation. That high bar can make it impractical to get compensation. Other states have special boards or commissions that review vacated convictions. Prosecutors declining to re-file charges or even recommending vacation of the conviction is usually a really good sign though - commissions/boards and courts still give them a lot of deference.

The amount varies but federally it is $50k for each year incarcerated. CA is around 50k. WA pays 200k. NV pays 50k/yr for up to 10, 75k/yr for 10+. Some states and the feds have adders if you were on death row: +100k/yr federal, CO +50k/yr on death row. Others have adders for every year on parole or having to register as a sex offender (KS/WA +25k). And some states offer tuition assistance (or full ride), healthcare, counseling services, and so forth.

As for this case... Maryland used to require a pardon from the Governor or a "writ of actual innocence" so in practice it was impossible to get compensation. From 1984-2020 the Board of Public Works only compensated 5 people and from 2004-2019 they didn't accept a single claim. But they changed the process in 2021 to make it easier... now an Administrative Law Judge considers the circumstances and the compensation pays the daily median wage for each day in prison (around 41k/yr). Maryland also now gives healthcare coverage, job training, housing assistance, and so on.

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#126

Post by rayiner »

robga wrote: post #11

Serial was blowout success, but flawed in many ways. For me, chief amongst these is not updating the podcast with new (and potentially exculpatory) information as it came to light over the years. What really progressed the case was the Undisclosed podcast [0]. Rabia Chaudry, a childhood friend of Adnan and an attorney, first took Adnan's story to Sarah Koenig, who documented it in the Serial podcast. But in Undisclos…

Serial left me thinking that Syed was probably guilty, or at the very least the case was a close call. The practical truth is that if we required this level of scrutiny for every conviction to stick, we’d multiply by an order of magnitude or two the number of guilty criminals who cannot be convicted.

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#127

Post by Xorlev »

danso wrote: post #69
robga wrote: post #11

Serial was blowout success, but flawed in many ways. For me, chief amongst these is not updating the podcast with new (and potentially exculpatory) information as it came to light over the years. What really progressed the case was the Undisclosed podcast [0]. Rabia Chaudry, a childhood friend of Adnan and an attorney, first took Adnan's story to Sarah Koenig, who documented it in the Serial podcast. But in Undisclos…

I admire Chaudry but Undisclosed was just a little too much for me. Obviously, dismantling the faulty cell "ping" evidence was great work, but a lot of the content and theories seemed to veer into "throw everything but the kitchen sink at em" territory. But obviously there was a post-Serial audience and hunger for that kind of focus. Serial may have been the catalyst that brought huge national attention to Adnan, but…

> but a lot of the content and theories seemed to veer into "throw everything but the kitchen sink at em" territory.

In theory, all that should have been necessary is reasonable doubt, so dismantling multiple theories is useful.

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#128

Post by verteu »

3vidence wrote: post #121
verteu wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't just disregard Jay's testimony -- he led police to Hae's car. He discusses some inconsistencies here: https://theintercept.com/2014/12/29/exclusive-interview-jay-... Edit: A Reddit comment claims to identify more inconsistencies in the interview: https://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/comments/2xytci/comme...

I gotta do my due diligence and source this but I think there was a podcast called the "truth and justice podcast" that found a interview with the head of police before Jays testimony that said the police had located the vehicle and were withholding the location from the public at the time. This means the police already knew about the whereabouts of Hae's car before Jay. This part gets slightly more conspiratorial bu…

Agreed, it's possible. Though we'd also need to explain why Jay is still sticking to a made-up "I buried a murdered woman" story decades later. And find the "real killer" who happened to murder Hae the same day Adnan loaned Jay his car and phone...

(PS: You can bypass the paywall to read parts 2 and 3 of Jay's interview by disabling Javascript.)

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#129

Post by blobbers »

geuis wrote: post #34
blobbers wrote: post #17

'Serial' was the podcast that launched all podcasts. It was the defining podcast. It isn't that it was hyper monetized or incredibly financially successful; simply it showed that the audience was there. It has over 340 million listens as of 2018 . With this eviction of conviction, I suspect that number will be over a billion. It is fitting that it has come full circle and fulfilled the ultimate purpose of investigati…

> 'Serial' was the podcast that launched all podcasts Sorry, but this statement is objectively wrong. Podcasts have existed for close to 20 years in the way we understand them today. Serial may have helped to popularize podcasts, but in no way was original.

Indeed you’re very right! Not the original, but Serial contained all the elements that made a podcast mainstream and proved it out as a real business. Prior to it they were indie.

Re: ‘Serial’ case: Adnan Syed released, conviction tossed

#130

Post by jmull »

robga wrote: post #11

Serial was blowout success, but flawed in many ways. For me, chief amongst these is not updating the podcast with new (and potentially exculpatory) information as it came to light over the years. What really progressed the case was the Undisclosed podcast [0]. Rabia Chaudry, a childhood friend of Adnan and an attorney, first took Adnan's story to Sarah Koenig, who documented it in the Serial podcast. But in Undisclos…

> chief amongst these is not updating the podcast with new (and potentially exculpatory) information as it came to light over the years

I don’t think it makes sense to hold a show perpetually responsible to keep producing content to keep it up-to-date.

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