The anti-inflation pivot of 2022 • Hacker News Board

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#241

Post by mdcds » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 12:26 AM UTC

edgyquant wrote: post #230

unholiness wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Macroeconomics novice here. What's the argument that interest rates need to be close to inflation rates to counteract it? It seems like there should be an intrinsic time-value of money (e.g. 1 stuff today is worth 1.05 stuff next year) which is tradable (supply of future-stuff will equal demand for future-stuff at some rate like 1.05). And that single rate of stuff-interest would exist if the central bank does nothin…

Interest rates are risk free premiums. If inflation is less than them they are profitable this people move their capital into “risk free assets” like bonds, loans etc that are based on that rate. If the risk free rate is less than the inflation rate then people move their cash into higher risk assets like stocks otherwise they lose out to inflation in the long run. This is said to kick start the economy etc.

Which people?

Def not mom-and-pop investors who use pension funds and wealth managers/advisors to keep their investments in (usually) diversified portfolios.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#242

Post by missedthecue » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 12:33 AM UTC

thfuran wrote: post #218

WalterBright wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is a fine example, especially the first century.

Very nearly the first piece of legislation passed after the ratification of the constitution was a tariff.

The market works in spite of bad legislation not because of it

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#243

Post by prottog » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 12:55 AM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #221

ketralnis wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the problem of mostly successfully preventing fires or preparing for floods. "It wasn't that bad" because it was handled, but since that was handled by somebody else it's invisible to you

“If we did it right you’ll never even notice we did a thing” also happens to be an excellent way for any sleazy politician or “expert” to deflect any questioning.

It's an unfalsifiable statement, so it needs to be examined with caution.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#244

Post by groby_b » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 12:56 AM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #222

groby_b wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither deaths nor disability can be wished away by "just behaving as if it's normal". As for "continuing lockdowns" - most of the western world hasn't had a single actual lockdown. So let's not pretend that's the issue, or a desired approach to the problem. What is needed is - data transparency, instead of reduced data collection. - targeted measures, instead of blanket measures. Utilizing the above data, and focusi…

You are right. Forcing “non essential” small businesses to close, stopping all events, closing churches, parks, playgrounds, schools, making it illegal to walk on “the dry part of the sand”, disallowing dying people to have visitors, forcing hospitals to stop taking elective surgery, arresting people sitting on benches,etc… these all just ordinary things… right? Definitely not a “lockdown”, right? What is a lockdown…

A lockdown actually keeps you in your home.

And as I explained to you above, nobody except you is in any form talking about lockdowns. Put the strawman down already, it's starting to get worn on the edges.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#245

Post by groby_b » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 12:57 AM UTC

conductr wrote: post #208

groby_b wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither deaths nor disability can be wished away by "just behaving as if it's normal". As for "continuing lockdowns" - most of the western world hasn't had a single actual lockdown. So let's not pretend that's the issue, or a desired approach to the problem. What is needed is - data transparency, instead of reduced data collection. - targeted measures, instead of blanket measures. Utilizing the above data, and focusi…

Sorry I thought this was an economic conversation, I’m not really debating how best to manage the disease at this stage, but if X deaths a year becomes part of the run rate economics should normalize. > normalization of mask wearing in public indoor settings. However, I am curious how this is not normalized now? It’s personal choice where I live and nobody blinks twice if you want to wear it. And my state is full of…

I also expect other people to wear pants in public, and if they don't want to, they can stay at home.

There is such a thing as collective responsibility and a social compact.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#246

Post by lupire » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 1:03 AM UTC

jhundal wrote: post #147

thaumasiotes wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every one of the people in that building needs the same amount of food they did before they moved in.

Same amount of food yes. But if a mathematician was just sitting on the sidelines before this new field, they may decide it is more productive to trade time they spent on preparing food for more time to spend on math.

That's just moving the food job somewhere else.

It's not clear that this thread is about. Jobs a weak approximation of utility creation + equalit of the distribution of that utility.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#247

Post by lasc4r » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 1:04 AM UTC

buscoquadnary wrote: post #73

spywaregorilla wrote: post #30

I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…

This is the basic premise of this talk by Petar Zeihan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi_nFz1CJSI&t=2s

The post you're replying to mentions huge youth unemployment in China, doesn't Zeihan think China will collapse because there won't be enough workers? I was considering reading Zeihan's recent book but he comes off as kind of a fraud.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#248

Post by MR4D » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 1:05 AM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #177

throwawaymaths wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.

Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.

“While ever-shifting economic, political, and military pressure pries the Ukrainian state apart, the Russians will begin ... Once those areas are pacified the Russians will return to Ukraine, “rescuing” those in the Russified east and…”

Source: https://books.google.com/books?id=vn-BAwAAQBAJ&printsec=fron...

EDIT: I had an incomplete copy paste on the link so I corrected it

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#249

Post by lupire » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 1:10 AM UTC

csours wrote: post #99

t_mann wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fields are macroeconomics and labor economics. I don't understand your other question, so it's hard to answer. What do you mean by "discovered"? Discovered by whom, the employer or the the employee? But you may be interested in knowing that models of labor markets are often based on matching models - you've got two groups (employers, employees) and everyobdy is trying to find {one,many} members of the other group…

> The fields are macroeconomics and labor economics As I understand it, those are mainly concerned with reduction in labor costs. Job discovery is a phrase used by Clayton Christensen to describe finding a job to be done. He uses it to describe finding a product to sell to people to perform some function in their lives - a job to be done by a product that you make. I'm using it as an alternative to the idea of "job c…

Christensen isn't distinguishing creation from discovery, he's just using a buzzy term to describe his version of the same basic idea: increasing demand for labor and goods.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#250

Post by lupire » Tue, Sep 20, 2022, 1:14 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #210

thfuran wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which country are you referring to? I rather suspect that their government is a good deal less hands off than you're implying.

The US is a fine example, especially the first century.

You can low price tickets for Hamilton now. It's a great show and has some interesting bits Hamilton's contribution to, as fictional James Madison put it "nothing less than government control".