Earlier quoted context omitted.
Okay, you've convinced me. Now how about the month after that?
No idea. Which circus tribe will be in charge?
Probably not the one who can make the SPR never run out.
The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
101–110 of 308 posts
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
The primary link blocks me after a short scroll. Couldn't get past "the fold". But with Archive I can read the full article.
There's a dumb anti-pattern link that's like "I don't want to subscribe yet", but yeah, annoying nonetheless. I thought Substack was supposed to be a nicer alternative to Medium?
Medium was a breath of fresh air when it started. Then they had to make money.
Substack is a breath of fresh air. Then they will have to make money.
It's the same cycle over and over, for every startup. I don't why at the start of a new cycle people think this time it will be different.
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not only about being underwater on mortgages, but having your morgtage payment double (and maybe tripling soon...). Reddit is full of panicking homeowners who are starting to straggle with payments. This will have a wide effect on the whole economy because any discretionary spending will evaporate.
Are adjustable rate mortgages common in Canada?
Canadian mortgages have separate amortization periods (say 20 or 25 years for example) and interest rate terms (generally 1-5 years, after which the rate has to be renegotiated -- and you have the option of transferring the mortgage to another lender at that time).
You can also let your rate float with the market, which is called a variable rate mortgage.
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#104> It is the most concerted effort to slow down growth and employment in the interests of monetary stability that we have seen since the 1980s. I see it as a war of generations. The boomers/genXers are eager to preserve their wealth and are once again dumping on young people. The 70s was a period of high inflation, it was also, according to piketty a period of high income equality for the world over. The central banks…
And now Gen X are included in the anti-boomer rhetoric. Great. As a tail-end UK Gen Xer, while I have some wealth I have built from working for over 20 years, I missed out on houses costing 2-3x your income just as much as the younger generations did. I'm not sitting on a million dollar property that I paid 10c for in 1972, largely because I wasn't born then...
It's different in different countries. A common thread is that they own the real estate
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm referring to core inflation because it shows upward trend across all prices, which means people without much disposable income will feel the pinch everywhere. High inflation also erodes savings, making it hard to get out of poverty, particularly the generational type. Unemployment is obviously a problem, but the labor market is super tight right now. There's room to fight inflation without a big dip in employment…
> I'm referring to core inflation because it shows upward trend across all prices Hmm. I think you're mistaken. "CPI" is across all prices. "Core-CPI" is across most prices (ignores energy and food). Turns out that poor people use electricity and eat food, at least in America. Upon first glance, it would seem that "CPI" is a better measurement. The issue, as I stated earlier, is that energy/food prices swing wildly i…
> We ignore energy/food not because they're "unimportant", but because they're too volatile to draw conclusions from
Yes, that's exactly what I'm referring to. I mean that looking at the core number gives a better picture of the trend.
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not only about being underwater on mortgages, but having your morgtage payment double (and maybe tripling soon...). Reddit is full of panicking homeowners who are starting to straggle with payments. This will have a wide effect on the whole economy because any discretionary spending will evaporate.
Are adjustable rate mortgages common in Canada?
supposedly about a 1/3 of mortgages are variable in Canada. But more importantly, fixed mortgages are almost all 5 year terms (or less). That is, every 5 years you have to renew your rate (even though the mortgage amount is for 25 years). That means every year, about 20% of homeowners are updating to the current fixed rate (assuming an random distribution of purchase date). Perhaps a big chunk renewed early in 2020, but by 2025/2026 all mortgaged homeowners will have a new higher rate.
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the basic premise of this talk by Petar Zeihan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi_nFz1CJSI&t=2s
Pretty much. I think he's too eager to write off certain things to paint a wholly American picture, but he's generally got it right. The China story is not as clear. But the Europe picture is pretty plain. America is gonna eat it's lunch.
How does India do in all this? Their software development salaries in tier 1 cities are close to 100k or more. Lots of friends going back .
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are adjustable rate mortgages common in Canada?
Canadian mortgages have separate amortization periods (say 20 or 25 years for example) and interest rate terms (generally 1-5 years, after which the rate has to be renegotiated -- and you have the option of transferring the mortgage to another lender at that time). You can also let your rate float with the market, which is called a variable rate mortgage.
Interesting. Do you know why mortgages in Canada are so different from the US? They seem much more risky on the buyer’s side.
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
Has to? Why?
It is common to have adjustable rates in Canada, while the standard in USA is fixed rates. So in these times where rates go up, it makes Canadian homeowners suddenly have to pay more for their houses they're already living in.
Well, I hope those people don't end up homeless. I don't see how the housing market crashing is going to be good for them.
Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
The fields are macroeconomics and labor economics. I don't understand your other question, so it's hard to answer. What do you mean by "discovered"? Discovered by whom, the employer or the the employee? But you may be interested in knowing that models of labor markets are often based on matching models - you've got two groups (employers, employees) and everyobdy is trying to find {one,many} members of the other group…
> The fields are macroeconomics and labor economics As I understand it, those are mainly concerned with reduction in labor costs. Job discovery is a phrase used by Clayton Christensen to describe finding a job to be done. He uses it to describe finding a product to sell to people to perform some function in their lives - a job to be done by a product that you make. I'm using it as an alternative to the idea of "job c…
> As I understand it, those are mainly concerned with reduction in labor costs.
Where does your understanding derive from? Reducing macroeconomics to "reducing labor costs" is akin to reducing classical mechanics to "computing projectile trajectories". I don't know Christensen but I take it that he's a business school professor and I guess that was the target audience he was speaking to there.
You're not wrong that economics is a discipline that is not free from ideological biases, but I guess you're going a bit far in reducing the discipline to that. People still want to answer questions with data, like "what happens to unemployment (and exchange rates, and investment,...) if we raise interest rates?". Labor economics might ask more narrow questions like "what happens if we raise the minimum wage?". That's the sort of questions that economics deals with, not musing over the semantics of creation vs discovery.