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Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

wsj.com

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Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#101

Post by DarkWiiPlayer »

xwolfi wrote: post #49
Ambolia wrote: post #24

I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?

Maybe France can take over, at a lower productive level certainly. We have less ideology in energy sourcing (I d say many of us may even be proud of nuclear power and I had enough insanely aggressive debate with our German friends to know there s someth wrong there in how they represent it), we can find a way to change our work culture to target profitability a bit more and we can take as many german refugees as we n…

If you want to be a bit paranoid, but not entirely unrealistic, you might see a connection between Germany's aversion to nuclear power and our reliance on Russian gas.

I wouldn't go as far as to believe that Russia has infiltrated our whole politics to the point where they can dictate what energy sources we use, but they may well have taken some degree of influence over public perception of nuclear power as inherently "dangerous".

Either way, even if it is for the "wrong" reasons, I do think that the nuclear power aversion isn't necessarily a bad thing; the technology is old, requires massive investments before it can be used and still requires its own type of fuel to run.

Most renewable sources, meanwhile, can be built up more gradually, and every finished wind turbine, solar panel, etc. starts producing energy right away. Acquiring know-how in these fields could also prove very valuable whenever the rest of the world decides to rely more heavily on these technologies (assuming cold fusion doesn't become viable before then)

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#102

Post by sofixa »

fabian2k wrote: post #64
xwolfi wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe France can take over, at a lower productive level certainly. We have less ideology in energy sourcing (I d say many of us may even be proud of nuclear power and I had enough insanely aggressive debate with our German friends to know there s someth wrong there in how they represent it), we can find a way to change our work culture to target profitability a bit more and we can take as many german refugees as we n…

The French nuclear power plants are one of the problems right now. I'm not convinced that France has an advantage here as they also don't seem to be able to build new reactors for a reasonable price in a reasonable timeframe. Having a lot of old reactors that need to be shut down a lot due to temperatures and maintenance it not really helping things.

> I'm not convinced that France has an advantage here as they also don't seem to be able to build new reactors for a reasonable price in a reasonable timeframe.

Of course the first reactors of an entirely new design will have problems, delays and be over budget. It's something extremely complex that needs to be extremely secure.

As with before, lessons will be learned, and future reactors of the same design will come along for cheaper and faster.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#103

Post by ZeroGravitas »

cm2187 wrote: post #45

But long term, despite their history of moronic energy policy, I don't see the EU making itself dependent again on Russian gas (or any other critical commodity). Which is kind of a problem for a commodity driven economy like Russia.

The EU has some of the best energy policy in the world.

It's the fossil fuel industry claiming they don't, because good energy policy in the 21st century means dropping fossil fuels over the next couple of decades and the more and faster nations follow the EUs lead, the less power the fossil fuel industry and Russia/Saudi Arabia etc have.

That's why there were so many people excited in the comments here at the thought of europeans freezing to death this winter.

Finally after being mocked for decades for saying green energy was unreliable, and climate change didn't exist, they've been proved right by a fossil fuel producer tactically, but not strategically, cutting off their sales at short notice for political reasons during a war, lying about it being the EUs green policies at fault and failing to achieve anything by doing so.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#104

Post by DarkWiiPlayer »

Heyso wrote: post #93
yread wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends who you ask: Russia: NATO is at war with us. We're not at war with anyone cause it's a special military operation Everyone else: Russia and Ukraine are at war

Who's is sending weapons to Ukraine for free ? Who is putting military base around the country ? Who's putting "defensive" missile launcher around the country ? It is not just Russia VS Ukraine.

> Who's is sending weapons to Ukraine for free ? Who is putting military base around the country ? Who's putting "defensive" missile launcher around the country?

All of this is irrelevant.

> It is not just Russia VS Ukraine.

Yes. Yes it is. Russian soldiers are shooting at Ukrainian soldiers, and Ukrainian soldiers are shooting at Russian soldiers. That's it. No NATO soldiers are shooting at or being shot at by anyone. Because NATO is not a party in this war. Russia and Ukraine are.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#105

Post by SlickNixon »

DarkWiiPlayer wrote: post #104
Heyso wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who's is sending weapons to Ukraine for free ? Who is putting military base around the country ? Who's putting "defensive" missile launcher around the country ? It is not just Russia VS Ukraine.

> Who's is sending weapons to Ukraine for free ? Who is putting military base around the country ? Who's putting "defensive" missile launcher around the country? All of this is irrelevant. > It is not just Russia VS Ukraine. Yes. Yes it is. Russian soldiers are shooting at Ukrainian soldiers, and Ukrainian soldiers are shooting at Russian soldiers. That's it. No NATO soldiers are shooting at or being shot at by anyon…

>Russian soldiers are shooting at Ukrainian soldiers, and Ukrainian soldiers are shooting at Russian soldiers. That's it.

This is a gross oversimplification given that most soldiers don't do any shooting at all.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#106

Post by ixs »

tinco wrote: post #65
dijit wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is how it works. That’s what we assume will work when we apply sanctions on Russia. If it was less serious, if it wasn’t in our faces that innocent people were dying, if it was something “far away” and “complicated” and not so one-sided. It would work. Some (perhaps most) people are extremely selfish, even when it’s detrimental to themselves; you see it all the time with people not leaving enough space to collec…

Although I agree in the basis, it is more complex than just selfishness. In this war we have already been primed and aligned. Europe has been effectively aligned with Ukraine, whether it was through propaganda or plain high quality media coverage. So at the very least we will be sad to see Ukraine fall. On top of that we have been thoroughly informed that Russia is a threat to the EU, and Russia has done nothing but…

The distance from Paris to Berlin is longer than Berlin to Lviv in Ukraine. Something that is often forgotten it seems.

The European Union has legitimate territorial security interests and a expansionist empire right next door that is encroaching on your borders isn't something the EU leadership likes to have around.

Considering that I doubt passively waiting for Ukraine to fall was never on the menu. Instead I expect the military and financial help for Ukraine to further increase as it is way cheaper to finance someone else to fight the empire next door than having to beef up your own border security.

There are certainly enough useful idiots around that are clamoring for cheap gas at any price but I do not have the impression that they get a lot of traction. I saw some numbers the other day that 70% of the German population agrees that supporting Ukraine is important, even if it means higher energy prices/colder times in winter. Only the voters of the far right party AfD thought it a sensible policy to drop Ukraine. Not surprising really for Moscow's fifth column.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#107

Post by DarkWiiPlayer »

dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #3

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

> There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians."

Plenty of people do. Plenty of people aren't even waiting until they're code, they just say "We might be cold later, so it's fine to kill Ukrainians."

Hell, many even say it's Ukrainian's own fault that they're getting killed for resisting, and our fault for enabling them by sending them weapons.

Putin is counting on the rest of the world to be predominantly a bunch of immoral, spineless cowards, and he's not even that far off with that assumption.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#108

Post by sofixa »

Heyso wrote: post #94
diimdeep wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Depends who you ask: Well, you will hear some opinion, based on some perspective. Almost always it is not whole truth, but a subset of facts. But there is so much more at play. What bothers me is how western news manipulative and no one really notice. News giving everyone a subset of facts, while omitting others, not painting the entire truth. They are not lying, but at the same time manipulate opinion of a large p…

Like lying by omission, or relaying some false news, and apologizing a day or two later (discretly when the harm is already done). It is pretty obvious our media (at least in France) serve some agenda when you look at their finances. The rich guys that detain theses medias know how to make money. Meaning it is worth keeping these medias despite what it cost them each year. And why would you keep an unprofitable busin…

What do you mean?

Le Monde, the most popular newspaper, which is billionaire owned is profitable. Le Figaro, owned by Dassault (industrial group), second best, is also profitable.

TF1, most popular private TV news network, owned by Bouygues (industrial group), is also profitable. M6, second best (among the private ones), is also profitable.

Le Canard enchaîné and Mediapart, two of the most hard hitting investigative medias out there, are independent.

All of this is easily found public information, which conflicts with the picture you're trying to paint. Of course there are rich people pushing their agenda with media (Bolloré pushed the far-right Zemmour really hard), but it's not the norm and it's false to say that French media is kept afloat by rich people's money to push an agenda when they're all profitable.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#109

Post by actionfromafar »

bestouff wrote: post #80
bakuninsbart wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think a different regime would have fundamentally acted differently. Russia is too big to be in the EU (Germany and France would never allow it), and too small to be a 'nice' player next to super powers. Animosity towards Russia from the side of eastern Europe was always high, and the US kept using Russia as a useful boogie man, while China is a double-daggered partner. Russia never had a lot of options, and…

Maybe instead of "rolling over and accepting defeat" just not starting the war would have worked ?

No, I don't think so. That would only put the spotlight on how mediocre to miserable life is in Russia. Not great politically. Look at Erdogan now, vying for international cred when the economy is tanking at home. He has an election coming up where he might not be rock solid as usual.

I see similarities.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#110

Post by ZeroGravitas »

someweirdperson wrote: post #75
petrut_m wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany has never rebuilt it's economy and never switched the energy source powering it. The rest of EU will just sit idly by and watch as the trend continues downward without taking any action. /s

We're stuck in between "don't want" an "can't", hoping that the problem will disappear on its own. Instead of going all-in on local sources or renewables (even power2gas would be cheaper than current import prices), with only 272 wind turbines built so far this year and the goal still being a lowly 2% land covered in turbines, we're replacing one external unreliable source with another, which includes more complicate…

We already have consensus on the viable long term concepts. Some people have just been trying really hard to ignore and delay the acceptance of that reality.

Talking up the "chaos" and refusing to do basic things to help people when "disaster capitalists" would rather leverage the problem to funnel money to their backers is just another chapter in that fight.

As is the weird focus on land coverage. No one sensible is talking about that. It has never been a problem to worry about, and it certainly isn't a metric to aim for.

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