Who is at War exactly ?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2#US_sanctions_and...
[2] > Alternatives to Russian supplies—including LNG from the U.S. and other countries
Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
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Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair, many other HN comment sections on this topic have discussed exactly these questions, including the history of the current energy mix.
Im sure there were, however, from my point of view it seems (and Im not trying to fight that, just observing) the collective "mania" and false logic predicated on tribal mentality of emotions (for emotions can be controlled unlike reasoned populace) is thoroughly hammered into the populace . So, any thread, as you point out, has the nearly identical tones, emotions, and false claims.
To be clear, during a hot war it can make logical sense to rally around "the cause".
Sometimes the only appropriate answer to tribal, violent attack, is violence in return.
Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#73I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?
The profit margin’s of the energy companies are more important than the economy. Take UK with only 8% Russian imports, but prices have somehow doubled. Same story in the EU
Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#74Who is at War exactly ? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2#US_sanctions_and... [2] > Alternatives to Russian supplies—including LNG from the U.S. and other countries
Depends who you ask:
Russia: NATO is at war with us. We're not at war with anyone cause it's a special military operation
Everyone else: Russia and Ukraine are at war
Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#75I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?
Germany has never rebuilt it's economy and never switched the energy source powering it. The rest of EU will just sit idly by and watch as the trend continues downward without taking any action. /s
We're stuck in between "don't want" an "can't", hoping that the problem will disappear on its own.
Instead of going all-in on local sources or renewables (even power2gas would be cheaper than current import prices), with only 272 wind turbines built so far this year and the goal still being a lowly 2% land covered in turbines, we're replacing one external unreliable source with another, which includes more complicated means of transportation (ship vs. pipe).
Politics and media are discussion short-term topics like continuing to run the remaining 3 nuke plants, and running a bit more on coal for electricity.
Instead, short term actions should just be done, and the time for discussion used to get to some long term consensus on some viable future concepts.
Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#76But long term, despite their history of moronic energy policy, I don't see the EU making itself dependent again on Russian gas (or any other critical commodity). Which is kind of a problem for a commodity driven economy like Russia.
One could argue reduced dependency on natural resource export could benefit russian economy in the long term because it undermines current regime, the root cause of the lack of growth during the last decade.
I don't think a different regime would have fundamentally acted differently. Russia is too big to be in the EU (Germany and France would never allow it), and too small to be a 'nice' player next to super powers. Animosity towards Russia from the side of eastern Europe was always high, and the US kept using Russia as a useful boogie man, while China is a double-daggered partner.
Russia never had a lot of options, and while it would have been better for Russians living standards to "roll over and accept defeat", this would have been political suicide for any regime.
Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
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hmm, an instant reply, from a newly created account, leading with a patently false accusation followed by extreme examples which don't match reality.
yes, looks like typical move of Russian-sponsored actors.
Thanks, redscareone, that's exactly the kind of proof my argument needed.
Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s a lot more complicated to be honest. There are different ways to end the conflicts and different degrees of support possible. Some European countries were in favour of pushing for peace talks far earlier but the current Ukrainian government has complete support from the USA and territorial ambition of its own. Belligerents are not into it out of the goodness of their heart you know. It’s not really about saving…
Peace talks before Russia is pushed back at least to Ukraine's post-2014 borders is basically a victory for Russia, and we would have this conversation again in 5-10 years.
Peace talks could have involved a return to post-2014 borders as a condition. At this point it’s science-fiction anyway and it’s becoming clear that Ukraine wants to take back Crimea.
I don’t know nor have access to the information necessary to judge if it would have been better for the population.
I just deeply dislike the narrative which pushes the Ukrainian conflict as an unambiguous fight between the forces of good and evil with a single acceptable outcome and where anything short of total support for one side to keep fighting is seen as wrong.
Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#79I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?
The profit margin’s of the energy companies are more important than the economy. Take UK with only 8% Russian imports, but prices have somehow doubled. Same story in the EU
They doubled as the UK is part of the wider market, so subject to market forces due to the way it is structured... In this situation, green energy producers are also getting a significant boost as their energy is very low marginal cost of production and commands the same rate as fossil fuels. Hopefully that is at least some silver lining... Maybe we could tax the fossil fuel companies and support the UK taxpayers rather than laying down more debt in the form of taxpayer loans.
Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
One could argue reduced dependency on natural resource export could benefit russian economy in the long term because it undermines current regime, the root cause of the lack of growth during the last decade.
I don't think a different regime would have fundamentally acted differently. Russia is too big to be in the EU (Germany and France would never allow it), and too small to be a 'nice' player next to super powers. Animosity towards Russia from the side of eastern Europe was always high, and the US kept using Russia as a useful boogie man, while China is a double-daggered partner. Russia never had a lot of options, and…
Maybe instead of "rolling over and accepting defeat" just not starting the war would have worked ?